yes guys, seasonality tends to be poor this time of year, but
again that can vary and gold/silver obviously didn't follow
seasonality this spring, most of the time it's strong up until
early to mid May.
fxprosilver- in response to your question about Silver earlier today,
as you know Silver has been in a long correction since April 2011
after it's parabolic blow off top. Typically after a
parabolic blow off top, it takes a long period of consolidation
before the stock/instrument is ready to resume it's move up again,
we have been seeing this with Silver as expected.
Otherwise yes Silver will move along with gold and inverse to
the US Dollar, however it also has more correlation to the economy
and stock market vs gold because it is an industrial metal, unlike
gold.
For now the long term uptrend line from 2008 is holding and
there are also some support levels between 25 - 26, however those
must hold, otherwise the door would open for silver to fall down to
the next long term support between 19.5 - 20. See the first
two charts
Here's a few more charts. ZSL is the ultra short ETF for
silver, notice how it bounced off the 20 day MA and for now volume
patterns are still constructive suggesting another move to the
upside, and down move in Silver.
The next chart is a 10 min chart of SLV, for now looks like a
bear flag?
The final chart shows you a 60 min chart of SLV, triangle
forming, watch the direction this breaks
Freddy- over the weekend you asked me if the bounce in GDX could
be a 4th wave, I gave a long reply, but here's how that would be
labeled
Realize that a 4th wave could morph out in a variety of ways;
i.e. this move up could still just be wave A of 4 with the pullback
being wave B of 4, then eventually GDX get's one more bounce as a
wave C. Or wave 4 could form a more complex triangle pattern
(as shown in black) chopping around sideways forming an ABCDE
pattern and then breaking down. Or wave 4 could have been put
in already as a small ABC and be ready to make new lows again -
shown in red. The attached chart shows three waves which wave
4 could play out.
so far with the volume patterns there is still hope for either
the ABC with this pullback being a wave B, or the triangle pattern
vs the sell off to new lows right from here. But again we'll
just see. Otherwise if one of these 4th wave scenario does
end up playing out with a new low eventually established, then I
think PM stocks start to become more attractive for a longer swing
trade bounce.
well all of those scenarios I show ultimately form a new low
after they are complete, it just depends on time. One of them
would see new lows fairly soon, while the other two would take time
to play out before doing so, and one would take out the recent
highs in a wave C but would again still ultimately make a low after
it's completed.
What happend to Silver?
Posted by fxprosilver on 29th of May 2012 at 12:41 pm
Matt can u comment or pm the silver spot. it was up 28.69 in the morning and in few minutes got strongly sold to 27.8!
i was long at 28.4 and didnt took my profits, now i see my loses. Do u think it will bounce again soon or is it ment to go even more down.
Silver i guess follows gold and the general market..
or is it from weakness of euro i.e. strenght of dollar.
appreciate ur thoughts and analysisnon this.
Doesn't silver usually get knocked
Posted by candide001 on 29th of May 2012 at 01:41 pm
Doesn't silver usually get knocked down at the end of the month?
I keep thinking that JPM
Posted by sbwoman on 29th of May 2012 at 02:01 pm
I keep thinking that JPM has something to do with it
seasonal not favorable for silver in june
Posted by 8899 on 29th of May 2012 at 12:49 pm
http://seasonalcharts.com/classics_silber.html
look at seasonal for gold too...looks like a buy around 4th of july might be ok IF seasonalality holds true...
yes guys, seasonality tends to
Posted by matt on 29th of May 2012 at 03:55 pm
yes guys, seasonality tends to be poor this time of year, but again that can vary and gold/silver obviously didn't follow seasonality this spring, most of the time it's strong up until early to mid May.
fxprosilver - in response to your question about Silver earlier today, as you know Silver has been in a long correction since April 2011 after it's parabolic blow off top. Typically after a parabolic blow off top, it takes a long period of consolidation before the stock/instrument is ready to resume it's move up again, we have been seeing this with Silver as expected.
Otherwise yes Silver will move along with gold and inverse to the US Dollar, however it also has more correlation to the economy and stock market vs gold because it is an industrial metal, unlike gold.
For now the long term uptrend line from 2008 is holding and there are also some support levels between 25 - 26, however those must hold, otherwise the door would open for silver to fall down to the next long term support between 19.5 - 20. See the first two charts
Here's a few more charts. ZSL is the ultra short ETF for silver, notice how it bounced off the 20 day MA and for now volume patterns are still constructive suggesting another move to the upside, and down move in Silver.
The next chart is a 10 min chart of SLV, for now looks like a bear flag?
The final chart shows you a 60 min chart of SLV, triangle forming, watch the direction this breaks
let's see what happens from here...
clearly that bear flag played
Posted by matt on 30th of May 2012 at 09:45 am
clearly that bear flag played out on Silver that I showed in yesterday's post, of course everything is down this morning as we see.
http://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/200975/#201026
Many pms had bear flags
Posted by freddy123321 on 30th of May 2012 at 09:48 am
Many pms had bear flags
Freddy - over the weekend you
Posted by matt on 30th of May 2012 at 10:04 am
Freddy - over the weekend you asked me if the bounce in GDX could be a 4th wave, I gave a long reply, but here's how that would be labeled
Realize that a 4th wave could morph out in a variety of ways; i.e. this move up could still just be wave A of 4 with the pullback being wave B of 4, then eventually GDX get's one more bounce as a wave C. Or wave 4 could form a more complex triangle pattern (as shown in black) chopping around sideways forming an ABCDE pattern and then breaking down. Or wave 4 could have been put in already as a small ABC and be ready to make new lows again - shown in red. The attached chart shows three waves which wave 4 could play out.
so far with the volume patterns there is still hope for either the ABC with this pullback being a wave B, or the triangle pattern vs the sell off to new lows right from here. But again we'll just see. Otherwise if one of these 4th wave scenario does end up playing out with a new low eventually established, then I think PM stocks start to become more attractive for a longer swing trade bounce.
again we'll see...
I think we see another
Posted by freddy123321 on 30th of May 2012 at 10:35 am
I think we see another low. But... I change on a dime.
well all of those scenarios
Posted by matt on 30th of May 2012 at 10:39 am
well all of those scenarios I show ultimately form a new low after they are complete, it just depends on time. One of them would see new lows fairly soon, while the other two would take time to play out before doing so, and one would take out the recent highs in a wave C but would again still ultimately make a low after it's completed.
we'll see....
I have to run a
Posted by matt on 29th of May 2012 at 12:42 pm
I have to run a short errand, I'll reply when I get back