Posted by lsherrer on 20th of May 2012 at 10:14 pm
Don't forget to give us the time scale for statements like this.
A "short-term bounce" could show up only on a 60-min chart, or you
could be talking about a bounce of several days/weeks. Try to be as
time-specific as you can. I have no problem when you accompany your
comments with a chart because I can see the time scale of the chart
you are talking about.
In this case, how long of a "short-term bounce" are you talking
about?
I dont' have a crystal ball, I can't tell you exactly.
However I was already specific enough with my comments
regarding the NYMO chart, just go look at that chart, it's a daily
chart and not a 60 min chart, refer to Aug - Oct of last year, the
market put in a few oversold bounces then made a lower low while
the NYMO made a higher low. Then look at May - July of 2010,
the market did the same thing, it had a couple oversold
bounces before making a new low while the NYMO formed a higher low.
Obviously these events last for days and weeks, not short
term 60 min per your comment, obviously I'm referring to something
that could take days and weeks to occur. The NYMO chart is a
daily chart, not a 60 min chart, it would take time for a divergent
low to form - use what happened on that chart as a guildeline for
your timeframe.
Now again, does it have to play out like this, hell no, it's
just a guess, as always adapt and react to how the market behaves
and don't be locked into that something has to play out a certain
way.
I also just threw this scenario out there as a possibility, not
really as something to get too caught up in yet, the market hasn't
even bounced yet, too early to call for sure.
Everyone is super emotional now, try to put emotion aside, that
only clouds objectivity.
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Correction Low Maybe Weeks Away.
Posted by lsherrer on 20th of May 2012 at 10:14 pm
Don't forget to give us the time scale for statements like this. A "short-term bounce" could show up only on a 60-min chart, or you could be talking about a bounce of several days/weeks. Try to be as time-specific as you can. I have no problem when you accompany your comments with a chart because I can see the time scale of the chart you are talking about.
In this case, how long of a "short-term bounce" are you talking about?
Thanks.
I dont' have a crystal
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2012 at 11:02 pm
I dont' have a crystal ball, I can't tell you exactly. However I was already specific enough with my comments regarding the NYMO chart, just go look at that chart, it's a daily chart and not a 60 min chart, refer to Aug - Oct of last year, the market put in a few oversold bounces then made a lower low while the NYMO made a higher low. Then look at May - July of 2010, the market did the same thing, it had a couple oversold bounces before making a new low while the NYMO formed a higher low. Obviously these events last for days and weeks, not short term 60 min per your comment, obviously I'm referring to something that could take days and weeks to occur. The NYMO chart is a daily chart, not a 60 min chart, it would take time for a divergent low to form - use what happened on that chart as a guildeline for your timeframe.
Now again, does it have to play out like this, hell no, it's just a guess, as always adapt and react to how the market behaves and don't be locked into that something has to play out a certain way.
I also just threw this scenario out there as a possibility, not really as something to get too caught up in yet, the market hasn't even bounced yet, too early to call for sure.
Everyone is super emotional now, try to put emotion aside, that only clouds objectivity.