yes it is for now, of course, it's the close that is official
for the system, again it doesn't mean that you can't use the system
as a guide i.e. enter early, exit early, or you can follow the
system as is.
The reversal price on the Renko is
$41.58, therefore price must close at this price or above.
Someone could also go long intra day if they wish, with a
stop below that price, maybe 10 cents below etc. Again it
depends on what you want to do.
The GDX Renko system is an end of day system, the stats are
built via taking the closing prices. However one thing that
I've noticed is that sometimes by the close, the Renko price can be
50 cents or 80 cents below (for longs) the end of day price, and
vice versa for shorts. This means that sometimes you
don't get as good of price at end of day. However I've kept
it as an end of day system because a lot of people work jobs, and
it makes it easy to enter at the close.
however one thing that would be interesting would be to take a
look at all the past intra day data and see how much better prices
one could get via buying intra day once the Renko level was broken
vs only waiting for the close, and putting a stop in place below
the renko price, say for example 10 - 20 cents, enough to prevent
you from getting stopped out by a couple pennies. Obviously
some instances you would buy and get stopped out and the system
would not end of triggering officially at the close, while other
times you would get quite a bit better prices. It would be
interesting to see if this would add up over time to improve the
stats, how many trades would it positively affect and negatively
affect? Again these are things that you could only answer
via going back and looking at all the past intra day data and then
looking at each and every trade, so it would take a bit.
Again the stats may show show that it's better to always take
the closing prices, or not, you really don't know until you crunch
the numbers
anyone here bored? want something to do?
anyway gold is up today on QE hopes, and of course it was so
oversold
currently the market is selling off strongly, and if that
continues, then I expect weakness to spill over to the gold
stocks.
gyzhao - remember officially it's a daily system, if
at the end of the day, it's still on a sell, no big deal, no trade
for the system. my 1 min chart also provides some nice
guildlines.
please see the statistics to the Renko system. I've
discussed this before in the past many times. After a huge
winning trade, the odds of the next trading also being a large
winner is not good, in fact the stats are better if you skip the
next trade.
Now this doesn't mean that you have to skip the next long trade,
but it does tell you not to expect a huge winning trade from it.
You could for example exit before the system did via using a
60 min chart, or Stochastics or RSI getting overbought etc.
The reason why this occurs is because Renko systems
follow price and thus Elliot Wave counts. Think about it like
this, after GDX puts in a confirmed bottom, then the first move
higher should either wave a wave A or a wave 1, this means that you
ALYWAYS ALWAYS get a pullback, either in a wave 2 or B, and it's on
that next pullback where the system can have a whipsaw. The
odds favor wave 1 and 2 being whips or A and B. It's
generally the third trade, which would be a long, that has the
potential to be a big winner because it would either be a wave C or
a wave 3. Hopefully this makes some sense. see the
graphic
the point of my post is to just make sure you don't bet the farm
thinking that the next GDX Renko system long will be a huge winner,
when in fact odds favor that it won't be.
Also I know how new members tend to think, they take one trade
of a system like the GDX Renko system and then say, "ahh the system
sucks, it doesn't work if that trade happens to be a minor winner
or whipsaw", nope, you cannot think about the system in that way
off one trade, and you need to understand the dynamics of how it
works and the odds of the trades.
and again you don't have to strictly adhere to the
rules, you can take profits early at times when you think trades
have a whipsaw probability.
I will expand upon this in the near future and I'm also adding
some additional rules/guidelines such as looking at RSI and other
things.
yes it is for now,
Some Short Ideas Updated
Posted by matt on 17th of May 2012 at 11:16 am
yes it is for now, of course, it's the close that is official for the system, again it doesn't mean that you can't use the system as a guide i.e. enter early, exit early, or you can follow the system as is.
The reversal price on the Renko is $41.58 , therefore price must close at this price or above. Someone could also go long intra day if they wish, with a stop below that price, maybe 10 cents below etc. Again it depends on what you want to do.
The GDX Renko system is
Posted by matt on 17th of May 2012 at 12:11 pm
The GDX Renko system is an end of day system, the stats are built via taking the closing prices. However one thing that I've noticed is that sometimes by the close, the Renko price can be 50 cents or 80 cents below (for longs) the end of day price, and vice versa for shorts. This means that sometimes you don't get as good of price at end of day. However I've kept it as an end of day system because a lot of people work jobs, and it makes it easy to enter at the close.
however one thing that would be interesting would be to take a look at all the past intra day data and see how much better prices one could get via buying intra day once the Renko level was broken vs only waiting for the close, and putting a stop in place below the renko price, say for example 10 - 20 cents, enough to prevent you from getting stopped out by a couple pennies. Obviously some instances you would buy and get stopped out and the system would not end of triggering officially at the close, while other times you would get quite a bit better prices. It would be interesting to see if this would add up over time to improve the stats, how many trades would it positively affect and negatively affect? Again these are things that you could only answer via going back and looking at all the past intra day data and then looking at each and every trade, so it would take a bit. Again the stats may show show that it's better to always take the closing prices, or not, you really don't know until you crunch the numbers
anyone here bored? want something to do?
anyway gold is up today on QE hopes, and of course it was so oversold
currently the market is selling off strongly, and if that continues, then I expect weakness to spill over to the gold stocks.
Thank you!
Posted by gyzhao on 17th of May 2012 at 11:49 am
Matt
So far Renko works well.
This is the first time I use this system. I bought a small position, 500.
Let see how it works further.
Renko may be disappointed today.
Posted by gyzhao on 17th of May 2012 at 12:15 pm
Renko may be disappointed today.
gyzhao - remember officially it's a daily
Posted by matt on 17th of May 2012 at 12:26 pm
gyzhao - remember officially it's a daily system, if at the end of the day, it's still on a sell, no big deal, no trade for the system. my 1 min chart also provides some nice guildlines.
otherwise do you trade anything else besides GDX?
I set up a good
Posted by gyzhao on 17th of May 2012 at 02:11 pm
I set up a good stop loss. Thus everything is OK.
GDX Renko system trade statistics discussion
Posted by matt on 17th of May 2012 at 02:36 pm
please see the statistics to the Renko system. I've discussed this before in the past many times. After a huge winning trade, the odds of the next trading also being a large winner is not good, in fact the stats are better if you skip the next trade.
Now this doesn't mean that you have to skip the next long trade, but it does tell you not to expect a huge winning trade from it. You could for example exit before the system did via using a 60 min chart, or Stochastics or RSI getting overbought etc.
The reason why this occurs is because Renko systems follow price and thus Elliot Wave counts. Think about it like this, after GDX puts in a confirmed bottom, then the first move higher should either wave a wave A or a wave 1, this means that you ALYWAYS ALWAYS get a pullback, either in a wave 2 or B, and it's on that next pullback where the system can have a whipsaw. The odds favor wave 1 and 2 being whips or A and B. It's generally the third trade, which would be a long, that has the potential to be a big winner because it would either be a wave C or a wave 3. Hopefully this makes some sense. see the graphic
wave diagram and box text GDX possible wave count
Posted by capital1 on 17th of May 2012 at 03:05 pm
wave diagram and box text for GDX
Mat,
can you put that info someplace I can print it out? thanx!
the point of my post
Posted by matt on 17th of May 2012 at 02:43 pm
the point of my post is to just make sure you don't bet the farm thinking that the next GDX Renko system long will be a huge winner, when in fact odds favor that it won't be.
Also I know how new members tend to think, they take one trade of a system like the GDX Renko system and then say, "ahh the system sucks, it doesn't work if that trade happens to be a minor winner or whipsaw", nope, you cannot think about the system in that way off one trade, and you need to understand the dynamics of how it works and the odds of the trades.
and again you don't have to strictly adhere to the rules, you can take profits early at times when you think trades have a whipsaw probability.
I will expand upon this in the near future and I'm also adding some additional rules/guidelines such as looking at RSI and other things.
unless gold keeps going straight up.. it should at least test the 1168 ish area
Posted by zach06 on 17th of May 2012 at 02:46 pm
on the short term
ANYONE KNOW THE OPPOSITE OF TVIX?
Posted by harveykoss on 17th of May 2012 at 02:48 pm
be extremely cautious trading those
Posted by matt on 17th of May 2012 at 02:49 pm
be extremely cautious trading those VIX ETF's, I've seen people get blown up with those, too volatile