Ravun, that chart of yours could still play out! (
and what worries us is
that there are too many bears here!)
However one point I wanted to make is that it's no longer
technically an ascending triangle. Read Encyclopedia Of Chart
Patterns, Bulkowski gives really good definitions and criteria of
chart patterns that must be met in order to define them as such,
too many folks loosely define something as a symmetrical triangle
or ascending triangle, when it's technically not.
but regardless, we leave open the possibility that the market
could push higher and the SPX go to the higher Fib #'s...we'll see
I guess.
Either way, the positive
divergence from yesterday played out nicely
t defines most all the rules of a symmetrical triangle (bearing
in mind TIME in a 60 min chart compared to a daily chart)
Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation
pattern, an established trend should exist. The trend should be at
least a few months old (define THIS in a 60 min chart please) and
the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before
continuing after the breakout....I SAID we need time and need to
consolidate..we are doing that.
Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and
the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This
refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening
consolidation before the breakout...we are experiencing this right
now....everybody is at the Hamptons.
Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for
a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it
is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is
about 3 months. AGAIN DEFINE TIME in a 60 min chart.
Breakout Time Frame: The ideal breakout point
occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or
time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the
apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning
of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point
might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be
insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must
occur sometime...AROUND 3/4 of the way now.
Read Bulkowski, your pattern does not fit his definition because
you have too much white space and not enough touches on your lower
trend line,
it's a descending
triangle or pennant.
Regardless, if a descending triangle breaks to the upside, it is
actually very bullish i.e. failed descending triangles that
breakout instead of down are very bullish.
Failed Descending Triangle patterns that break to the
upside are very bullish patterns
I
'm just having fun, this
is all very trivial of course, so don't it personal.
Same
Posted by ravun on 27th of Aug 2008 at 11:08 am
old same same old...)))
Ravun, that chart of yours
Posted by matt on 27th of Aug 2008 at 12:24 pm
Ravun, that chart of yours could still play out! ( and what worries us is that there are too many bears here!)
However one point I wanted to make is that it's no longer technically an ascending triangle. Read Encyclopedia Of Chart Patterns, Bulkowski gives really good definitions and criteria of chart patterns that must be met in order to define them as such, too many folks loosely define something as a symmetrical triangle or ascending triangle, when it's technically not.
but regardless, we leave open the possibility that the market could push higher and the SPX go to the higher Fib #'s...we'll see I guess. Either way, the positive divergence from yesterday played out nicely
Matt
Posted by ravun on 27th of Aug 2008 at 03:35 pm
t defines most all the rules of a symmetrical triangle (bearing in mind TIME in a 60 min chart compared to a daily chart)
Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. The trend should be at least a few months old (define THIS in a 60 min chart please) and the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout....I SAID we need time and need to consolidate..we are doing that.
Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout...we are experiencing this right now....everybody is at the Hamptons.
Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is about 3 months. AGAIN DEFINE TIME in a 60 min chart.
Breakout Time Frame: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime...AROUND 3/4 of the way now.
Read Bulkowski, your pattern does
Posted by matt on 27th of Aug 2008 at 03:42 pm
Read Bulkowski, your pattern does not fit his definition because you have too much white space and not enough touches on your lower trend line, it's a descending triangle or pennant.
Regardless, if a descending triangle breaks to the upside, it is actually very bullish i.e. failed descending triangles that breakout instead of down are very bullish.
Failed Descending Triangle patterns that break to the upside are very bullish patterns
I 'm just having fun, this is all very trivial of course, so don't it personal.
never doubted you...lol...nice responce.
Posted by robbie on 27th of Aug 2008 at 03:40 pm
never doubted you...lol...nice responce.
but beautiful.....
Posted by robbie on 27th of Aug 2008 at 11:16 am
but beautiful.....