Steve covered this in a small chart. Look at what happened
the day we "hammer bottomed" in August. It was a simple
back-test, and it took everything the market had (or PPT had), to
try and re-gain that neckline. But the next day is when the
real selling started. Look at how the MA cluster started
fanning out, right when the stuff started to hit the fan.
The other weird thing, is that many of the "hammer bottoms"
today occurred in stocks in topping patterns - like LULU, LNKD,
DHI, MA etc. Those aren't hammer bottoms at all -- they
aren't really shooting stars -- consider them "shots across the
bow". Hammers work best at the end of ridiculously long and
intense sell-offs - in the case of LNKD (and the "Zuckerberg
reversal"), that was no hammer. The $TSX, for example, seems
to be entering more of an accelerated down phase, like crisp
Canadian waterfalls will emerge from their cold winter.
$NYMO -- two straight days of little change = BIG PRICE MOVE
COMING! Which way? It doesn't say. Right now,
there is plenty of resistance above, with little support below.
Back-testing broken neckline
Posted by kalinm on 8th of May 2012 at 05:13 pm
Steve covered this in a small chart. Look at what happened the day we "hammer bottomed" in August. It was a simple back-test, and it took everything the market had (or PPT had), to try and re-gain that neckline. But the next day is when the real selling started. Look at how the MA cluster started fanning out, right when the stuff started to hit the fan.
The other weird thing, is that many of the "hammer bottoms" today occurred in stocks in topping patterns - like LULU, LNKD, DHI, MA etc. Those aren't hammer bottoms at all -- they aren't really shooting stars -- consider them "shots across the bow". Hammers work best at the end of ridiculously long and intense sell-offs - in the case of LNKD (and the "Zuckerberg reversal"), that was no hammer. The $TSX, for example, seems to be entering more of an accelerated down phase, like crisp Canadian waterfalls will emerge from their cold winter.
$NYMO -- two straight days of little change = BIG PRICE MOVE COMING! Which way? It doesn't say. Right now, there is plenty of resistance above, with little support below.
Thx for the post. Good
Posted by blake_20 on 8th of May 2012 at 06:51 pm
Thx for the post. Good points. Hammer on $SPX - seems like a false signal.