Good question frtaylor and I'm no ew expert. I think that
the "I" Caldaro has marked is not a "key price marker" for the
current wave. I believe it is the wave 1 of lesser degree --
either the Oct high of 1293, or I think it's actually the early
December wave i high of 1265 or so. So I don't think his
count is in jeopardy if it breaches 1370.
But I do think that his wave I is awfully big compared to his
wave 3 (currently in progress). Also, this is isolating the
SP500 -- in looking at Global markets, this isn't jiving with them
too well. Look at, for instance, commodities or commodity
countries -- TSX for example doesn't come close to this count.
Also look at $CAC, $SSEC -- both of those countries are not
in any kind of bullish count. I know the SPX can diverge and
do its own thing, but IMO, looking at his count is to say that the
US will be impervious to any global calamity (impending
Greece/Spain/Italy catastrophe) -- as I pointed out below, the
Canadians thought the same thing in 2008 and appeared to be making
a bullish 5 wave up move. Oil crashed and they soon joined
the party. I'm not certain the storied US "growth stocks" --
PCLN, CMG, SBUX with their lofty PE ratios will be impervious to a
de-leveraging event (I argue they will come crashing down to earth
quickly).
Again, I'm no ew expert and I have some biases, so take my
comments with a grain of salt.
Yeah, there's no guarantee 1370 will hold! If it doesn't,
it just means his count is wrong. As Steve always says, use
it as a guide, not a trading signal. The issue then becomes,
what IS the wave count (at that level). Cuz if it ain't a
wave I up, then it's an A, and so maybe we just finished C???
Hmmm. Steve, I'm getting bogged down in counts!
You're probably right to key more off of the wave count two
levels down ("i"), which means we can go as low as 1265.
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Title: wave I, 1 or
SPX 15 min comments
Posted by kalinm on 6th of Apr 2012 at 03:09 pm
Good question frtaylor and I'm no ew expert. I think that the "I" Caldaro has marked is not a "key price marker" for the current wave. I believe it is the wave 1 of lesser degree -- either the Oct high of 1293, or I think it's actually the early December wave i high of 1265 or so. So I don't think his count is in jeopardy if it breaches 1370.
But I do think that his wave I is awfully big compared to his wave 3 (currently in progress). Also, this is isolating the SP500 -- in looking at Global markets, this isn't jiving with them too well. Look at, for instance, commodities or commodity countries -- TSX for example doesn't come close to this count. Also look at $CAC, $SSEC -- both of those countries are not in any kind of bullish count. I know the SPX can diverge and do its own thing, but IMO, looking at his count is to say that the US will be impervious to any global calamity (impending Greece/Spain/Italy catastrophe) -- as I pointed out below, the Canadians thought the same thing in 2008 and appeared to be making a bullish 5 wave up move. Oil crashed and they soon joined the party. I'm not certain the storied US "growth stocks" -- PCLN, CMG, SBUX with their lofty PE ratios will be impervious to a de-leveraging event (I argue they will come crashing down to earth quickly).
Again, I'm no ew expert and I have some biases, so take my comments with a grain of salt.
Yeah, there's no guarantee 1370
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Apr 2012 at 03:40 pm
Yeah, there's no guarantee 1370 will hold! If it doesn't, it just means his count is wrong. As Steve always says, use it as a guide, not a trading signal. The issue then becomes, what IS the wave count (at that level). Cuz if it ain't a wave I up, then it's an A, and so maybe we just finished C??? Hmmm. Steve, I'm getting bogged down in counts!
You're probably right to key more off of the wave count two levels down ("i"), which means we can go as low as 1265.