Something is strange within the commodity sector

    Posted by lebow on 20th of Dec 2011 at 12:28 pm

    Friends in the agricultural business are amazed about the price difference between corn and milk. Actually nobody follows this if your not a geek because you cannot trade milk (outside the shop). But since the start of november corn has broken down at the same time as it is a lot of worry about too much rain in Australia (black line, sugar green line). Everyone seems to believe that this is because of the financial crisis but in that case also the price of milk should go down. 

    The main difference may be that the funds cannot speculate in milk. Its impossible to store - just as butter or dry powder but just for some weeks. According to the latest COT data a general trend seems to be diminishing open balances. Maybe the weakness in the commodity sectors just are attributable to the funds taking down the balances/risk before the year end? If that's the case, commodities may be the big theme in the spring.

     

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