Just looking at the graph M2 is leading ECRI. My personal view,
for what its worth, is that growth will slow below 0 again during
Q1 and/or Q2 and we will have a QE3. With the high volatility in
the ECRI-index, ECRI can always say that they have been right,
whatever the outcome will be. It's a black box.
Posted by angelo851 on 14th of Nov 2011 at 07:31 am
Yes, it is a tough call. I have seen ECRI's representative go on
CNBC and he says that ECRI always calls recessions many months in
advance of the market realization of recessions. If their black box
is that good then maybe the M2 will start dropping if the
economy heads into recession. Please keep those charts up and
keep posting them, if you can. Maybe once a month would be
adequate. Thanks.
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tough call
ECRI still bearish
Posted by lebow on 14th of Nov 2011 at 12:29 am
Just looking at the graph M2 is leading ECRI. My personal view, for what its worth, is that growth will slow below 0 again during Q1 and/or Q2 and we will have a QE3. With the high volatility in the ECRI-index, ECRI can always say that they have been right, whatever the outcome will be. It's a black box.
Yes, it is a tough
Posted by angelo851 on 14th of Nov 2011 at 07:31 am
Yes, it is a tough call. I have seen ECRI's representative go on CNBC and he says that ECRI always calls recessions many months in advance of the market realization of recessions. If their black box is that good then maybe the M2 will start dropping if the economy heads into recession. Please keep those charts up and keep posting them, if you can. Maybe once a month would be adequate. Thanks.