This is an excerp from a message receievd from a well
informed and experienced guy who sent this out after the close last
night. In case this may be of value to you. He does run his own
'models' and 'signals', as is eveident from the text.
'While
Richard Arms developed the Short Term Trading
Index (TRIN) as a way of measuring
intraday buying and selling pressure, I first
used it as a 10 day moving average
indicator, and it was the primary indicator I
used for my December 9, 1974
article in BARRON’S, “Buy Signal,” with the Dow
Jones at 575.
(The intraday low on December 9 of 571
was the bear market low.) So I am intimately
acquainted with this
indicator.
For a
variety of reasons, including my having
publicized it!, it no longer has the
predictive abilities it used to, either on a
daily basis or on a 10 day moving
average basis.
However, it still is
a good indicator of “ extreme extremes” – and
today was one.
The
closing TRIN level today on the New York Stock
Exchange, as reported by Trade
Station Securities, was 8.53.
As a
comparison, 1.0 is the norm, by definition.
According to my records, 8.53 is the
highest reading in history.
In
fact, over the past half century, there have
been only four other times when the
TRIN closed over 6.0.
In all four
cases, the market rebounded smartly the
following day:
On
the day after October 19, 1987, the SPX advanced
5.3% On
the day after October 26, 1987, the SPX advanced
2.4% On
the day after October 27, 1997, the SPX advanced
5.1% On
the day after February 27, 2007, the SPX
advanced 0.5%'
Posted by marketguy on 10th of Nov 2011 at 07:02 am
tom, I've followed the trin for a couple years now and the
author is right...where a HIGH trin used to mean oversold it's been
fairly useless the last number of years...now that said, I have
combined it with a TICK I use which helps a little but I wouldn't
rely on it much....
if going long yesterday be careful if we take out yesterday's
lows (but I'm sure you know that)....
Good point MG and I will be watching and I am prepared to hedge
if need be. And by the way I find great usefulness in your many
charts as do most members here. You are one of the best.
I have been a bull since the beginning of October and have been
rewarded for it. ....however I do believe that we are at a turning
point. There are a number of technical as well as fundamental
reasons for my change of position (long to short) and I may
elaborate and post Monday. My message to you is to hang in there
with your shorts (assuming your risk tolerance permits). I think
you were early but I think you will be proven correct.
Remember, it could only be relevant for today. Thereafter, well
that's another matter and this indicator, as suggested isn't much
use. I wish you luck and with the futures up 10+ you'll be
happy.
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TRIN
Posted by jasper on 10th of Nov 2011 at 05:48 am
This is an excerp from a message receievd from a well informed and experienced guy who sent this out after the close last night. In case this may be of value to you. He does run his own 'models' and 'signals', as is eveident from the text.
'While Richard Arms developed the Short Term Trading Index (TRIN) as a way of measuring intraday buying and selling pressure, I first used it as a 10 day moving average indicator, and it was the primary indicator I used for my December 9, 1974 article in BARRON’S, “Buy Signal,” with the Dow Jones at 575. (The intraday low on December 9 of 571 was the bear market low.) So I am intimately acquainted with this indicator.
For a variety of reasons, including my having publicized it!, it no longer has the predictive abilities it used to, either on a daily basis or on a 10 day moving average basis. However, it still is a good indicator of “ extreme extremes” – and today was one.
The closing TRIN level today on the New York Stock Exchange, as reported by Trade Station Securities, was 8.53. As a comparison, 1.0 is the norm, by definition. According to my records, 8.53 is the highest reading in history.
In fact, over the past half century, there have been only four other times when the TRIN closed over 6.0. In all four cases, the market rebounded smartly the following day:
On the day after October 19, 1987, the SPX advanced 5.3% On the day after October 26, 1987, the SPX advanced 2.4% On the day after October 27, 1997, the SPX advanced 5.1% On the day after February 27, 2007, the SPX advanced 0.5%'
chart on the TRIN from
Posted by marketguy on 10th of Nov 2011 at 08:40 am
chart on the TRIN from Cobra....
Hope you are right jasper,
Posted by tomW1 on 10th of Nov 2011 at 06:58 am
Hope you are right jasper, I greatly increased my longs yesterday. I do believe this is a buying opportunity.
tom, I've followed the trin
Posted by marketguy on 10th of Nov 2011 at 07:02 am
tom, I've followed the trin for a couple years now and the author is right...where a HIGH trin used to mean oversold it's been fairly useless the last number of years...now that said, I have combined it with a TICK I use which helps a little but I wouldn't rely on it much....
if going long yesterday be careful if we take out yesterday's lows (but I'm sure you know that)....
Good point MG and I
Posted by tomW1 on 10th of Nov 2011 at 07:12 am
Good point MG and I will be watching and I am prepared to hedge if need be. And by the way I find great usefulness in your many charts as do most members here. You are one of the best.
thanks tom (appreciate it)....I try,
Posted by marketguy on 10th of Nov 2011 at 07:48 am
thanks tom (appreciate it)....I try, and as you know, I wear my emotions on my sleeves (whether that's good or bad I don't know)....
Marketguy, I have been a bull
Posted by tomW1 on 12th of Nov 2011 at 03:50 pm
Marketguy,
I have been a bull since the beginning of October and have been rewarded for it. ....however I do believe that we are at a turning point. There are a number of technical as well as fundamental reasons for my change of position (long to short) and I may elaborate and post Monday. My message to you is to hang in there with your shorts (assuming your risk tolerance permits). I think you were early but I think you will be proven correct.
TomW1
Remember, it could only be
Posted by jasper on 10th of Nov 2011 at 07:02 am
Remember, it could only be relevant for today. Thereafter, well that's another matter and this indicator, as suggested isn't much use. I wish you luck and with the futures up 10+ you'll be happy.