Today was (off a quick glance) the 6th largest sell-off of the
last two years. I count three days right near the bottom of
the August sell-off; one day in August on a re-test of the low; the
flash crash. There has never been a candle this big at the
start of a sell-off, only near the end. What to make of this?
As daily MACD just crossed to bearish and lots of the $BP
charts are just coming off of highs, will this start to gather some
steam and have, yet bigger red candles? I am trying to be
objective here and want to hear from some bulls on this; my thesis
is that we just kicked off a vicious wave 3 sell-off that will
intensify over the next 8-11 days and will allow no way out for any
bulls.
Posted by frtaylor on 10th of Nov 2011 at 07:29 am
Rather than hazard a guess, and since there are so many points
one can make on either side, I will go w/ Steve's addage:
just respect the message of the market.
Posted by frtaylor on 10th of Nov 2011 at 08:49 am
Well, I would still go back to Steve: if we close above a 50%
retrace of yesterday's candle, then go long w/ a stop below
yesterday's lows. Otherwise we go lower. How far down?
I don't know, but I'd be looking for an entry long (w/ a stop below
the low of this move), since this has the feel of an ABC correction
(if you agree w/ Matt's charting). I have seen so many bigger
picture predictions/guesses on this blog and elsewhere that have
not played out, that it seems best not to weigh in, much less bet,
on such things.
Posted by marketguy on 9th of Nov 2011 at 09:56 pm
kalinm, do the same study but back it up to 10/07-4/09 and see
how many of those candles there were (and if any were off
tops...I'd guess there were plenty but could be wrong)....
Was a vicious down day off a top. 1255 to 1205 -- incidentally,
similar values to today. This followed the short ban on financials
and led to the October massacre -- 15 days later, SP was at 840 as
a low. What is not similar to 2008 is that fundamentals now
are decidedly WORSE; Bernanke is a lame duck Fed with no more ammo
left.
Today's big red candle; thoughts?
Posted by kalinm on 9th of Nov 2011 at 09:46 pm
Today was (off a quick glance) the 6th largest sell-off of the last two years. I count three days right near the bottom of the August sell-off; one day in August on a re-test of the low; the flash crash. There has never been a candle this big at the start of a sell-off, only near the end. What to make of this? As daily MACD just crossed to bearish and lots of the $BP charts are just coming off of highs, will this start to gather some steam and have, yet bigger red candles? I am trying to be objective here and want to hear from some bulls on this; my thesis is that we just kicked off a vicious wave 3 sell-off that will intensify over the next 8-11 days and will allow no way out for any bulls.
Rather than hazard a guess,
Posted by frtaylor on 10th of Nov 2011 at 07:29 am
Rather than hazard a guess, and since there are so many points one can make on either side, I will go w/ Steve's addage: just respect the message of the market.
what is the message right
Posted by marketguy on 10th of Nov 2011 at 07:30 am
what is the message right now frtaylor? we had been going straight up and then get pounded yesterday....is the message up or down today/tomorrow?
Well, I would still go
Posted by frtaylor on 10th of Nov 2011 at 08:49 am
Well, I would still go back to Steve: if we close above a 50% retrace of yesterday's candle, then go long w/ a stop below yesterday's lows. Otherwise we go lower. How far down? I don't know, but I'd be looking for an entry long (w/ a stop below the low of this move), since this has the feel of an ABC correction (if you agree w/ Matt's charting). I have seen so many bigger picture predictions/guesses on this blog and elsewhere that have not played out, that it seems best not to weigh in, much less bet, on such things.
kalinm, do the same study
Posted by marketguy on 9th of Nov 2011 at 09:56 pm
kalinm, do the same study but back it up to 10/07-4/09 and see how many of those candles there were (and if any were off tops...I'd guess there were plenty but could be wrong)....
Sept 22, 2008
Posted by kalinm on 9th of Nov 2011 at 10:19 pm
Was a vicious down day off a top. 1255 to 1205 -- incidentally, similar values to today. This followed the short ban on financials and led to the October massacre -- 15 days later, SP was at 840 as a low. What is not similar to 2008 is that fundamentals now are decidedly WORSE; Bernanke is a lame duck Fed with no more ammo left.
hmmmm......
Posted by marketguy on 9th of Nov 2011 at 10:27 pm
hmmmm......