Even the best and most influential strategists are wrong sometimes, even apart from when Black Swan events occur.  That does not mean that they are undeserving of admiration.  If that were so, none of them would deserve admiration.  From what I can tell from your messages, Coxe said that he did not expect certain events to occur which have caused his forecasts to falter recently but he did not claim that those events were unforeseeable, i.e. that they were Black Swan events.  That speaks well of him; the best strategists generally have the humility to accept and speak the truth and thus would not blame their failures on Black Swan events which were actually foreseeable as demonstrated by other strategists.  Excellent strategists often disagree.  In such situations, unlike Black Swan situations, the charts are likely to give prior indications to technical analysts as to what may occur.