what has kept me wary, and away from expanding my
meagre short position is the fact that I hear everywhere
people talking how they plan to short SPX 1320, and many
places are talking turn dates 2nd half of august - crowded
I just think that it is possible that that shorting becomes a
bear trap, and we see a final push higher than SPX 1320, and an
upside resolution to the traingle that XLF is making on a daily
chart, setting a negative divergence and a new high, a squeeze of
late shorts, and we go our merry way down.
Posted by cwa82675 on 17th of Aug 2008 at 11:12 am
I agree. That is why I believe the market did not make it
to 1320. IMO we either fall here not giving many the chance
to short 1320 or we power through it to 1340-1355. I am short
here, but expecting a weak market next week. If we move higher I
will cover some core positions and re-evaluate.
Posted by hornsant on 16th of Aug 2008 at 08:06 pm
Yup, if that plays out then shorts will have to hold their
breath for a bit. It is natural that a crowded
bear favours for the lonley bull. We will see. Anyway,
technicals do not favour a down turn yet: VIX, PCP, etc.
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what has kept me wary,
XLF
Posted by googool on 16th of Aug 2008 at 01:57 pm
what has kept me wary, and away from expanding my meagre short position is the fact that I hear everywhere people talking how they plan to short SPX 1320, and many places are talking turn dates 2nd half of august - crowded
I just think that it is possible that that shorting becomes a bear trap, and we see a final push higher than SPX 1320, and an upside resolution to the traingle that XLF is making on a daily chart, setting a negative divergence and a new high, a squeeze of late shorts, and we go our merry way down.
I agree. That is why
Posted by cwa82675 on 17th of Aug 2008 at 11:12 am
I agree. That is why I believe the market did not make it to 1320. IMO we either fall here not giving many the chance to short 1320 or we power through it to 1340-1355. I am short here, but expecting a weak market next week. If we move higher I will cover some core positions and re-evaluate.
Yup, if that plays out
Posted by hornsant on 16th of Aug 2008 at 08:06 pm
Yup, if that plays out then shorts will have to hold their breath for a bit. It is natural that a crowded bear favours for the lonley bull. We will see. Anyway, technicals do not favour a down turn yet: VIX, PCP, etc.