that closing strongly below the 20 month MA, like we did at the
end of September, signals a bear market? Is this
just a bullshit move to suck in more buyers? Does it make ANY
sense at all to be short here?
to hold a strong bias or at least to tie your money to that bias
on anything longer than a trading basis. It's either early in
a longer bear or possibly near the end of an ugly correction.
I can sit here and make some pretty good cases why we should
go down, up, or even sideways for a period of time. The truth
is that our long term charts tell us this has a high probability of
being a longer term bear market. It doesn't make it so, it
just increases the probability. It could still end up
being just an ugly correction. We won't know which it is for
a while.
If you have long term money riding one direction or another then
you should have a stop where you realize that you are wrong and
need to get out. You should know where that point is.
Otherwise cash is safe until the picture clears.
Personally, I think the risks are too high for a long term bias
in either direction. But, my risk profile is designed to keep
what I have and make money when I can. Your's may be
different.
What ever happened to the idea...
Posted by mfogli1 on 18th of Oct 2011 at 04:18 pm
that closing strongly below the 20 month MA, like we did at the end of September, signals a bear market? Is this just a bullshit move to suck in more buyers? Does it make ANY sense at all to be short here?
Mfogli1, IMHO the position of this market is probably the most difficult time
Posted by johnc on 19th of Oct 2011 at 08:20 am
to hold a strong bias or at least to tie your money to that bias on anything longer than a trading basis. It's either early in a longer bear or possibly near the end of an ugly correction. I can sit here and make some pretty good cases why we should go down, up, or even sideways for a period of time. The truth is that our long term charts tell us this has a high probability of being a longer term bear market. It doesn't make it so, it just increases the probability. It could still end up being just an ugly correction. We won't know which it is for a while.
If you have long term money riding one direction or another then you should have a stop where you realize that you are wrong and need to get out. You should know where that point is. Otherwise cash is safe until the picture clears.
Personally, I think the risks are too high for a long term bias in either direction. But, my risk profile is designed to keep what I have and make money when I can. Your's may be different.
Mine is to make money
Posted by cruiser on 19th of Oct 2011 at 08:24 am
Mine is to make money on a daily basis and leave predictions to the pros....
it's not unusual (see green
Posted by marketguy on 18th of Oct 2011 at 04:29 pm
it's not unusual (see green circles)....long way to go before the end of the month.....
the sooner you realize that you are not trading a normal market
Posted by zach06 on 18th of Oct 2011 at 04:20 pm
, the better off you will be. The NEWS of the hour drives this market until the vix settles down