Just so I understand, according to the weekend and Monday
reports, we ARE in a bear market, based on closing below the
20 month MA on Sept 30, so the current rally is contratrend,
right?
I am not a dayttrader, but rather am trying to position the
portfolio to be aligned with the primary trend and exit some long
positions. Of course, it's a little frustrating to be holding
shorts right here...Would a logical highest target for a top be at
1208?
It is very difficult to buy and hold through most primary trends
(especially volatile bears) although if the call is right you will
ultimately be rewarded. I personally don't have the
temperament for it. With technical analysis all we have is what our
charts show until it changes, I can't hold until it changes.
Now if you look at the single MA monthly chart you can see that
when price broke the MA that afterward in both 01 and 08, price at
some point moved all the way up to retouch the MA. That's a
whole lot of faith and daily losses to move all the way up there
without throwing in the towel. I can't do it. Maybe you
can.
So what I do, is try to trade my daily charts and be more
aggressive on down moves and less so on up moves. I won't get
all of it but it keeps me safe and keeps me from throwing in the
towel just before the market re-tanks,
Good questions. i am seeing lots of people calling a
bottom and it seems almost unanimous (at least by the various sites
i visit), that we have a "multi-month rally to 1250-1300".
You are exactly right -- we are barely below the 20 month MA
and it wouldn't make sense to reverse that in a month. After
all, that is a major thing to conquer -- and it wasn't an "oops"
breach of that mark, the market came thundering down in August with
a purpose. Now the shorts get squeezed badly and bear market
over? And on the news front, is the Europe problem solved
through a few rumours? I haven't heard peep about Europe in
three days. Is it fixed? No more problems with the US
banks? My understanding of the Greek problem was that it was
imminently catastrophic.... not catastrophic in 3 months after a
nice rally to relieve bullish sentiment. Catastrophic now despite
public bearishness.
It just goes to show most Analyst/newsletter writer out there
sprout BS - it really doesn't matter what they say... they are
right as much as they are wrong 50/50. If you understand this game,
then anyone can be an Analyst!
good point in article -- $Hang Seng is closed this week.
These ramp jobs have happened while Europe has already closed
as well. On a sidenote: it isn't making sense the copper
bottomed the day the market did. And it hasn't been leading
this rally -- it is getting dragged along for the ride. Oh
well, I guess these things work until they don't.
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Posted by mfogli1 on 7th of Oct 2011 at 12:02 am
Just so I understand, according to the weekend and Monday reports, we ARE in a bear market, based on closing below the 20 month MA on Sept 30, so the current rally is contratrend, right?
I am not a dayttrader, but rather am trying to position the portfolio to be aligned with the primary trend and exit some long positions. Of course, it's a little frustrating to be holding shorts right here...Would a logical highest target for a top be at 1208?
Not worth much, but I'll share my thoughts
Posted by johnc on 7th of Oct 2011 at 09:04 am
It is very difficult to buy and hold through most primary trends (especially volatile bears) although if the call is right you will ultimately be rewarded. I personally don't have the temperament for it. With technical analysis all we have is what our charts show until it changes, I can't hold until it changes.
Now if you look at the single MA monthly chart you can see that when price broke the MA that afterward in both 01 and 08, price at some point moved all the way up to retouch the MA. That's a whole lot of faith and daily losses to move all the way up there without throwing in the towel. I can't do it. Maybe you can.
SPX Monthly
So what I do, is try to trade my daily charts and be more aggressive on down moves and less so on up moves. I won't get all of it but it keeps me safe and keeps me from throwing in the towel just before the market re-tanks,
Hope that made any sense.
john
Good questions. i am seeing
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Oct 2011 at 12:32 am
Good questions. i am seeing lots of people calling a bottom and it seems almost unanimous (at least by the various sites i visit), that we have a "multi-month rally to 1250-1300". You are exactly right -- we are barely below the 20 month MA and it wouldn't make sense to reverse that in a month. After all, that is a major thing to conquer -- and it wasn't an "oops" breach of that mark, the market came thundering down in August with a purpose. Now the shorts get squeezed badly and bear market over? And on the news front, is the Europe problem solved through a few rumours? I haven't heard peep about Europe in three days. Is it fixed? No more problems with the US banks? My understanding of the Greek problem was that it was imminently catastrophic.... not catastrophic in 3 months after a nice rally to relieve bullish sentiment. Catastrophic now despite public bearishness.
man, how I would LOVE
Posted by marketguy on 7th of Oct 2011 at 07:38 am
man, how I would LOVE to see 1250-1300 (what a bloody "gift" that would be to short).....just don't think we'll get that lucky.....
I don't get it either
Posted by Michael on 7th of Oct 2011 at 07:23 am
A week ago everyone on earth was calling for S&P 700, now everywhere I look I see that there will be a two or three month rally.
It just goes to show
Posted by steve88 on 7th of Oct 2011 at 08:15 am
It just goes to show most Analyst/newsletter writer out there sprout BS - it really doesn't matter what they say... they are right as much as they are wrong 50/50. If you understand this game, then anyone can be an Analyst!
yep... you can call them ThrowDartsatMarket.com
Posted by zach06 on 7th of Oct 2011 at 08:24 am
IMF Advisor video
Posted by honzer on 7th of Oct 2011 at 12:40 am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bbc-does-it-again-absence-credible-plan-we-will-have-global-financial-meltdown-two-three-weeks-
good point in article --
Posted by kalinm on 7th of Oct 2011 at 12:48 am
good point in article -- $Hang Seng is closed this week. These ramp jobs have happened while Europe has already closed as well. On a sidenote: it isn't making sense the copper bottomed the day the market did. And it hasn't been leading this rally -- it is getting dragged along for the ride. Oh well, I guess these things work until they don't.