Something wicked this way comes? The comparison of the
copper chart of Feb 2008-Oct 2008 to copper of Feb 2011-Oct 2011
makes the case for aother imminent and total economic collapse.
To note on these charts: the circle drawn during the
"topping" phase is about six months. In 2008, many "experts"
were looking for some kind of retrace of the prior bull market's
gains. Also of note, once the selling started, it set up a
TIGHT channel and took no prisoners. No fibonacci; pivot
support; oversold indicators mattered. The channel lines
drawn in are identical in slope to that of 2008. Target --
copper $1.35 by Christmas. I'm amazed that the dates/price
levels are matching up almost IDENTICALLY. A large gap down
on Monday might be the start of something worse than "the end of a
wave 5 move".
A look at the Coal sector shows a similar downward channel
setting up. Scary and ominous.
I've mostly been of the opinion that the Greece situation will
play out like Bear Stearns. That once they go BK and whatever
emergency backstops get put in place, a final panic low will be set
up for the market to rally for 3-5 months and defy the newly minted
bears. I was also of the opinion that the rest of the PIIGS
would go the way of Greece by 2012 and they would be the Lehman
Brothers scenario that would wreak havoc on the markets, and that
even in the face of bearish sentiment, global margin calls would
un-wind leveraged debt and a collapse would ensue.
Copper and Coal are telling me that the Lehman scenario might
soon be unfolding, now, as in starting Monday. This time
could be worse; we've seen everything that Bernanke and Geithner
can throw at this market. And Chinese bubbles
bursting/commercial RE defaults are at play in this too. And
while a similar scenario happened 3 short years ago, there seems to
be an overwhelming sentiment (that I see personally), of "that
can't happen again".
Monday morning might be setting up a doozy "gap of recognition".
The downfall of Oct 2008 started exactly 3 years ago and from
THE EXACT SAME level on the SP500. The flash crash sliced
right through this 1025 level on the SP. I contend that if
Monday is a gap down (rp has alluded to this happening -- and it
might be large), we need to monitor these comparisons to 2008,
because right now, they are too similar to ignore.
If the 1125 SP level is as important as I think it is, and the
roadmap that was published exactly 3 years ago is accurate for now,
here are some potential targets if we get a large sell-off starting
in copper and the general market. I know history doesn't
repeat, but again, this is too eerily similar to ignore.
Title: Copper/Coal comparison of 2008
Posted by kalinm on 1st of Oct 2011 at 01:47 pm
Something wicked this way comes? The comparison of the copper chart of Feb 2008-Oct 2008 to copper of Feb 2011-Oct 2011 makes the case for aother imminent and total economic collapse. To note on these charts: the circle drawn during the "topping" phase is about six months. In 2008, many "experts" were looking for some kind of retrace of the prior bull market's gains. Also of note, once the selling started, it set up a TIGHT channel and took no prisoners. No fibonacci; pivot support; oversold indicators mattered. The channel lines drawn in are identical in slope to that of 2008. Target -- copper $1.35 by Christmas. I'm amazed that the dates/price levels are matching up almost IDENTICALLY. A large gap down on Monday might be the start of something worse than "the end of a wave 5 move".
A look at the Coal sector shows a similar downward channel setting up. Scary and ominous.
I've mostly been of the opinion that the Greece situation will play out like Bear Stearns. That once they go BK and whatever emergency backstops get put in place, a final panic low will be set up for the market to rally for 3-5 months and defy the newly minted bears. I was also of the opinion that the rest of the PIIGS would go the way of Greece by 2012 and they would be the Lehman Brothers scenario that would wreak havoc on the markets, and that even in the face of bearish sentiment, global margin calls would un-wind leveraged debt and a collapse would ensue.
Copper and Coal are telling me that the Lehman scenario might soon be unfolding, now, as in starting Monday. This time could be worse; we've seen everything that Bernanke and Geithner can throw at this market. And Chinese bubbles bursting/commercial RE defaults are at play in this too. And while a similar scenario happened 3 short years ago, there seems to be an overwhelming sentiment (that I see personally), of "that can't happen again".
Monday morning might be setting up a doozy "gap of recognition". The downfall of Oct 2008 started exactly 3 years ago and from THE EXACT SAME level on the SP500. The flash crash sliced right through this 1025 level on the SP. I contend that if Monday is a gap down (rp has alluded to this happening -- and it might be large), we need to monitor these comparisons to 2008, because right now, they are too similar to ignore.
Potential doomsday short term targets...
Posted by kalinm on 1st of Oct 2011 at 11:24 pm
If the 1125 SP level is as important as I think it is, and the roadmap that was published exactly 3 years ago is accurate for now, here are some potential targets if we get a large sell-off starting in copper and the general market. I know history doesn't repeat, but again, this is too eerily similar to ignore.
great post
Posted by lebow on 1st of Oct 2011 at 02:34 pm
Looking at that US Coal
Posted by kalinm on 1st of Oct 2011 at 02:02 pm
Looking at that US Coal index chart is amazing. The index has already lost 55% -- and smashed right through obvious support areas.