This is as many as you'll get in a row. At a quick glance,
the market achieved this in the initial stage of the bear market of
2008. Then went two months up. Bearishness is very high
-- as a bonus, CNBC and marketwatch will have special investor
alerts in October which will warn everybody that October is when
stock market crashes happen. Those should be out in full
force in the coming days anyway.
Posted by marketguy on 26th of Sep 2011 at 08:47 pm
careful kalinm.....we just might get that this October in spite
of everyone calling for it....these 20/50 weekly crosses don't
happen too often (back the chart up 10+ yrs for even longer
perspective)....
kind of like the H&S pattern a few months ago that everyone
dismissed because everyone was talking about it....well, lo and
behold it worked to perfection.....
Posted by frtaylor on 26th of Sep 2011 at 08:47 pm
That's a good point. How does that figure with your weekly
chart with the 70 sma showing we're now below it? That chart
implied we are going to continue down, but if we go up for a month
or two, wouldn't the market cross that average?
Touche frtaylor... they are contraditory. The 70 wk MA
looks much simpler and foolproof. There is a point to be made
about the 5 months down AND the excessive bearishness. Maybe
we just continue downwards -- everything that should produce a
bounce doesn't. After all, once a ponzi scheme is recognized
for what it is, bearishness can reach 100%, but it will still
collapse. My head is spinning now.... too much for me
tonight. Beer o'clock!
5 months down in $SPX
Posted by kalinm on 26th of Sep 2011 at 08:00 pm
This is as many as you'll get in a row. At a quick glance, the market achieved this in the initial stage of the bear market of 2008. Then went two months up. Bearishness is very high -- as a bonus, CNBC and marketwatch will have special investor alerts in October which will warn everybody that October is when stock market crashes happen. Those should be out in full force in the coming days anyway.
careful kalinm.....we just might get
Posted by marketguy on 26th of Sep 2011 at 08:47 pm
careful kalinm.....we just might get that this October in spite of everyone calling for it....these 20/50 weekly crosses don't happen too often (back the chart up 10+ yrs for even longer perspective)....
kind of like the H&S pattern a few months ago that everyone dismissed because everyone was talking about it....well, lo and behold it worked to perfection.....
Nice chart MG. This makes
Posted by kalinm on 26th of Sep 2011 at 08:53 pm
Nice chart MG. This makes me feel better about the boatload of shorts I bought today.
thanks....I started some small shorts
Posted by marketguy on 26th of Sep 2011 at 09:02 pm
thanks....I started some small shorts late this afternoon in my trading account (also have a bunch of buy stops in for more BGZ and TZA)....
That's a good point. How
Posted by frtaylor on 26th of Sep 2011 at 08:47 pm
That's a good point. How does that figure with your weekly chart with the 70 sma showing we're now below it? That chart implied we are going to continue down, but if we go up for a month or two, wouldn't the market cross that average?
Touche frtaylor... they are contraditory.
Posted by kalinm on 26th of Sep 2011 at 08:52 pm
Touche frtaylor... they are contraditory. The 70 wk MA looks much simpler and foolproof. There is a point to be made about the 5 months down AND the excessive bearishness. Maybe we just continue downwards -- everything that should produce a bounce doesn't. After all, once a ponzi scheme is recognized for what it is, bearishness can reach 100%, but it will still collapse. My head is spinning now.... too much for me tonight. Beer o'clock!
Believe me, it all makes
Posted by frtaylor on 26th of Sep 2011 at 09:53 pm
Believe me, it all makes my head hurt too! Time for ibuheineken.