here is a quarterly chart of sp500 with commercial cot and large
trader cot...in 1994 the commercials had a high level of positions
and the market went up & up...in 2007 the commercials had a
higher level of positions and the market went down & down...now
the commercials have a higher level of positions...we will know
what happens in time, but there is no way of telling based on past
history imo...
after following the numbers for some years i think that the best
interpretation of COT is not that is may show us what will happen -
it just shows us whats most hot right now - and that is always
interesting information. in that sense its best to look at what
speculators are doing right now (last week) - increasing or
decreasing?
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COT inconclusive
Posted by 8899 on 17th of Sep 2011 at 11:24 pm
here is a quarterly chart of sp500 with commercial cot and large trader cot...in 1994 the commercials had a high level of positions and the market went up & up...in 2007 the commercials had a higher level of positions and the market went down & down...now the commercials have a higher level of positions...we will know what happens in time, but there is no way of telling based on past history imo...
SPX Commercials
Posted by rbreese on 18th of Sep 2011 at 11:14 am
I have only followed them for the last few years and they have been spot on in SPX and Gold markets. Thanks for your analysis.
good point 8899
Posted by lebow on 18th of Sep 2011 at 11:06 am
after following the numbers for some years i think that the best interpretation of COT is not that is may show us what will happen - it just shows us whats most hot right now - and that is always interesting information. in that sense its best to look at what speculators are doing right now (last week) - increasing or decreasing?