Michael and others, no worries, I understand. Today's
small window is more of a fluke of some indicators converging
closely together that the system uses, that's all it really is,
more of a rare occurrence really.
Posted by dickdos2 on 15th of Sep 2011 at 11:17 am
Since the system was opened to new members in May (live trading
with signals sent to members), there have been a total of 26 entry
signals. This includes all entry signals, both single-entry and
multi-entry systems. Not all of these signals have been executed,
of course.
Of these 26 signals, 5 have been issued with a high-low range.
This works out to ~20% of all entry signals, which is certainly not
rare. But is this the norm you say? Well, if we assume that the
rate of potential signals generated over the life of the system is
mostly constant, then we can make some educated guesses about what
to expect going forward.
Of the 26 signals, 12 were executed. This is roughly two signals
for every actual entry. There have been 405 entries in the
multi-entry system to date. If we use some statistical analysis, we
see that 26 signals out of a population of 810 signals (assumed)
gives us at +/- 15% margin of error (at 95% confidence level).
This means: if our assumptions hold, then customers of the SPY
system should expect that signals will contain a range between 5%
and 35% of the time, given current data. This is a wide range, but
it tells us that we can reasonable expect ranged signals to be part
of the system, and that we should prepare accordingly. Over time
we'll have more live-trading data and be able to refine these
expectations.
TL;DNR - be mentally prepared for ranged signals to be a
part of the system, and plan accordingly.
I invite anyone to examine the data of course,
hereis a Google Docs spreadsheet.
Michael and others, no worries,
I am not questioning, not complaining, not second guessing -- ...
Posted by matt on 15th of Sep 2011 at 12:08 am
Michael and others, no worries, I understand. Today's small window is more of a fluke of some indicators converging closely together that the system uses, that's all it really is, more of a rare occurrence really.
Since system launch, small windows have been common
Posted by dickdos2 on 15th of Sep 2011 at 11:17 am
Since the system was opened to new members in May (live trading with signals sent to members), there have been a total of 26 entry signals. This includes all entry signals, both single-entry and multi-entry systems. Not all of these signals have been executed, of course.
Of these 26 signals, 5 have been issued with a high-low range. This works out to ~20% of all entry signals, which is certainly not rare. But is this the norm you say? Well, if we assume that the rate of potential signals generated over the life of the system is mostly constant, then we can make some educated guesses about what to expect going forward.
Of the 26 signals, 12 were executed. This is roughly two signals for every actual entry. There have been 405 entries in the multi-entry system to date. If we use some statistical analysis, we see that 26 signals out of a population of 810 signals (assumed) gives us at +/- 15% margin of error (at 95% confidence level).
This means: if our assumptions hold, then customers of the SPY system should expect that signals will contain a range between 5% and 35% of the time, given current data. This is a wide range, but it tells us that we can reasonable expect ranged signals to be part of the system, and that we should prepare accordingly. Over time we'll have more live-trading data and be able to refine these expectations.
TL;DNR - be mentally prepared for ranged signals to be a part of the system, and plan accordingly.
I invite anyone to examine the data of course, hereis a Google Docs spreadsheet.
Another question is how much more of a rally would it have taken
Posted by lessarda on 15th of Sep 2011 at 01:15 am
to trigger a short from a higher level, canceling out the confluence of indicators? I thought we might have been getting close near 121.