I was reading the Zeal LLC missive from Sept 9, which I thought
was a nice counterbalance to the bearish tone of the prior
posts. They make mention of how corrections unfold vs. how
bear markets unfold--corrects are quick and sharp at their outset
(like the August drop) whereas bear markets don't just "come out of
nowhere" but start slow and are the most fierce towards the
end.
The message is that the current decline is more corrective than
bear like, implying that sustainably higher prices are
ahead.
In the early stages of either, they can be very difficult to
distinguish from each other. However, I would argue that what
we are in now did not come out of nowhere. The market was
simply going sideways for almost the entire year prior to breaking
down. Besides, nothing seems to happen slowly to the downside
anymore. Everybody has the information quickly and is looking
to lock in profits.
So, keep it simple, until you are sure about what is going on
you keep your bets on the side of the larger trend (down) and you
keep your timing shorter. If it changes, you adjust.
What you can't do is make longer term bets against the trend.
You'll get burned and learn a lesson that you don't need to.
Zeal LLC comments
Posted by mfogli1 on 12th of Sep 2011 at 11:36 pm
I was reading the Zeal LLC missive from Sept 9, which I thought was a nice counterbalance to the bearish tone of the prior posts. They make mention of how corrections unfold vs. how bear markets unfold--corrects are quick and sharp at their outset (like the August drop) whereas bear markets don't just "come out of nowhere" but start slow and are the most fierce towards the end.
The message is that the current decline is more corrective than bear like, implying that sustainably higher prices are ahead.
Any thoughts??
Bear vs correction
Posted by johnc on 13th of Sep 2011 at 07:23 am
In the early stages of either, they can be very difficult to distinguish from each other. However, I would argue that what we are in now did not come out of nowhere. The market was simply going sideways for almost the entire year prior to breaking down. Besides, nothing seems to happen slowly to the downside anymore. Everybody has the information quickly and is looking to lock in profits.
So, keep it simple, until you are sure about what is going on you keep your bets on the side of the larger trend (down) and you keep your timing shorter. If it changes, you adjust. What you can't do is make longer term bets against the trend. You'll get burned and learn a lesson that you don't need to.
well in any case...... todays futures show higher lows so far than yesterday.
Posted by zach06 on 13th of Sep 2011 at 08:03 am
so I think I play it day to day