"You pays your money and takes your chances" to quote that wise
sage Popeye.
Yeah it's been painful (especially at 2x leverage). And it still
might get more painful over the coming days. Have I wanted to
sell? You bet. But I know I can't beat the system's stats on
my own. So I hold on knowing that any mechanical system does
what's best based on probability of
many similar situations and that it may not choose what's
best in any particular situation. (I don't know how to tell the
difference between the two in realtime) I figure venting on
the board does no good so I sit down and shut up and wait to see
the outcome along with all the others silently suffering this draw
down with me.
One concern I have however is the system bases
it's recommendations on "typical" market parameters
and "this ain't Kansas no more" after the sell off we've had.
But then I refer myself back to my opening quote and think of
another quote I've heard lately "it is what it is" (It
doesn't make me feel any better but what will when one is loosing
$$$)
Not trying to be Pollyannaish here, but seems a year or so of
trading will tell the tale...hopefully. If it's
underperforming the market at that point, well, the System's got
some 'splainin' to do. If it's beating it, I'll stay with it.
Especially if it's beating it by 10-15% or so.
Sure, 35% a year average would be nice, but I do think some of
that is probably from curve fitting stuff. I think we just don't
know how much. Only live trading will tell. Maybe it will continue
to average that much and that would be great!
Again I agree with you. But I think that Matt should have
waited longer to introduce the system. He should have waited
until a year or so of live trading had occurred to see what
realistic expectations for the system should be. The problem
is that, even after this trade, there are subscribers who talk
about the system's "history" as if it contains real trades before
April.
please, I'm sure Matt feel real bad about this, no need to keep
piling on. I am sitting on a big loss too, and wish I had not take
this trade (lots of misgivings etc etc). but let's not put the
blame on Matt, I'm sure he was trying to help us make money. The
mkt is what it is, anything can happen....
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
"You pays your money and
Just pondering
Posted by tj6p on 9th of Aug 2011 at 06:25 pm
"You pays your money and takes your chances" to quote that wise sage Popeye.
Yeah it's been painful (especially at 2x leverage). And it still might get more painful over the coming days. Have I wanted to sell? You bet. But I know I can't beat the system's stats on my own. So I hold on knowing that any mechanical system does what's best based on probability of many similar situations and that it may not choose what's best in any particular situation. (I don't know how to tell the difference between the two in realtime) I figure venting on the board does no good so I sit down and shut up and wait to see the outcome along with all the others silently suffering this draw down with me.
One concern I have however is the system bases it's recommendations on "typical" market parameters and "this ain't Kansas no more" after the sell off we've had. But then I refer myself back to my opening quote and think of another quote I've heard lately "it is what it is" (It doesn't make me feel any better but what will when one is loosing $$$)
Give it time...
Posted by burkmere on 9th of Aug 2011 at 07:05 pm
Not trying to be Pollyannaish here, but seems a year or so of trading will tell the tale...hopefully. If it's underperforming the market at that point, well, the System's got some 'splainin' to do. If it's beating it, I'll stay with it. Especially if it's beating it by 10-15% or so.
Sure, 35% a year average would be nice, but I do think some of that is probably from curve fitting stuff. I think we just don't know how much. Only live trading will tell. Maybe it will continue to average that much and that would be great!
Again I agree with you.
Posted by algyros on 9th of Aug 2011 at 07:44 pm
Again I agree with you. But I think that Matt should have waited longer to introduce the system. He should have waited until a year or so of live trading had occurred to see what realistic expectations for the system should be. The problem is that, even after this trade, there are subscribers who talk about the system's "history" as if it contains real trades before April.
jeez
Posted by tsurplus on 9th of Aug 2011 at 09:23 pm
please, I'm sure Matt feel real bad about this, no need to keep piling on. I am sitting on a big loss too, and wish I had not take this trade (lots of misgivings etc etc). but let's not put the blame on Matt, I'm sure he was trying to help us make money. The mkt is what it is, anything can happen....