Hi all, I am just logging in and have not read all the recent
posts. Just wondering, did you guys notice the low today was pretty
close to a fib 38% retrace of the move from SP 666 to 1371?
Believe me, no one of consequence institutionally was short in
size on the way down, and we all know mutual funds had record low
cash levels into July. Everyone is trapped long and still looking
for a gracefful exit. To me, that means the retrace rally from a
good benchmark low will be in the 1/3 to 1/2 retrace level, not the
usual 60% rebound. I don't expect much from this rebound here
without another failure, and note that SPX 1152 and 1175 were good
pivots previously. For me, one more washout could lead to a vicious
50% rebound lasting just a few days. Good luck all
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Fib
Posted by PA on 9th of Aug 2011 at 03:26 pm
Hi all, I am just logging in and have not read all the recent posts. Just wondering, did you guys notice the low today was pretty close to a fib 38% retrace of the move from SP 666 to 1371?
Believe me, no one of consequence institutionally was short in size on the way down, and we all know mutual funds had record low cash levels into July. Everyone is trapped long and still looking for a gracefful exit. To me, that means the retrace rally from a good benchmark low will be in the 1/3 to 1/2 retrace level, not the usual 60% rebound. I don't expect much from this rebound here without another failure, and note that SPX 1152 and 1175 were good pivots previously. For me, one more washout could lead to a vicious 50% rebound lasting just a few days. Good luck all