I've got to vent as well. This has been the worst trade I have
ever made. I fell in love with the 90% profitability figure and the
historic max loss of 3-4% and ignored all key support levels and
ma's. I'm still 100% long, hopefully we'll get some kind of mean
reversion and close with a single digit loss.
My advice to anyone hurting from the current trade is to
deleverage slowly as the market moves against you and take partial
losses - be aware the psychological damage of a large adverse
move can be worse than the lost money - this is how people 'blow
up' and withdraw from the market completely. I've taken my
hit.
As an aside - I think there are two things wrong with the system
that have failed it: it has no risk control (without
which the trades will always be picking up pennies in
front of a steamroller) and the performance figures on which
it has been prejudged have been based on the same set of data on
which it was developed (the result of which is a curve fitted
system with limited predictive power - I know this from
bitter experience - I've made this mistake trying to develop
my own systems!).
Neither adding stop losses nor overlaying options strategies
will improve the system results - mostly they will just
change the risk/payoff profile
But is the system still long? Please don't jump on me...not
trying to be sarcastic but it seems like Matt disappeared from the
board and want to make sure I didn't miss a signal. Haven't had
service consistently. Thank goodness I didn't put too much of my
account in the system but I am still long right now : (.
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devastating
Posted by tsurplus on 8th of Aug 2011 at 07:11 pm
totally devastating. I've never allowed myself to hold on with such big drawdown b4....
I've got to vent as
Posted by willc on 10th of Aug 2011 at 04:42 pm
I've got to vent as well. This has been the worst trade I have ever made. I fell in love with the 90% profitability figure and the historic max loss of 3-4% and ignored all key support levels and ma's. I'm still 100% long, hopefully we'll get some kind of mean reversion and close with a single digit loss.
My advice to anyone hurting
Posted by pfazza on 10th of Aug 2011 at 06:34 pm
My advice to anyone hurting from the current trade is to deleverage slowly as the market moves against you and take partial losses - be aware the psychological damage of a large adverse move can be worse than the lost money - this is how people 'blow up' and withdraw from the market completely. I've taken my hit.
As an aside - I think there are two things wrong with the system that have failed it: it has no risk control (without which the trades will always be picking up pennies in front of a steamroller) and the performance figures on which it has been prejudged have been based on the same set of data on which it was developed (the result of which is a curve fitted system with limited predictive power - I know this from bitter experience - I've made this mistake trying to develop my own systems!).
Neither adding stop losses nor overlaying options strategies will improve the system results - mostly they will just change the risk/payoff profile
Good luck...
Emotions are what they are.
Posted by algyros on 10th of Aug 2011 at 05:34 pm
Emotions are what they are.
Out of town and maybe I have missed something...
Posted by trader8 on 10th of Aug 2011 at 06:37 pm
But is the system still long? Please don't jump on me...not trying to be sarcastic but it seems like Matt disappeared from the board and want to make sure I didn't miss a signal. Haven't had service consistently. Thank goodness I didn't put too much of my account in the system but I am still long right now : (.