it seems impossible that the system is going to be able to make
money it's single entry approach trade at this point...and waiting
for a bounce could be deadly as the bounce could come from much
lower levels..
from the single entry buy. I think people who are
following this system have to give it 15-20 trades to see how it's
going to do. We've had close to this much of a drawdown before, and
the trade worked out. It may not this time. I think after 15-20
trades you will have to compare this system with the market
and see how it does.
I think the folks here who are expressing the most emotion are
probably over-leveraged in this trade. I don't think you can judge
a system by five trades or so.
I agree about not being able to judge a system by so few trades.
However, I think that the system's performance so far is
beginning to make it clear to people that backtested results aren't
the same as historical results. They may turn out to be, but
the only way to know that is to see how the system behaves in real
time.
Yeah, said that a while ago, nothing like live trading. I
really like to see live trading for a significant length of time
before putting significant capital into it. ESPECIALLY mean
reversion systems! JMHO FWIW
it seems impossible that the
Historical Draw Downs to the system
Posted by chlo888 on 8th of Aug 2011 at 12:29 pm
it seems impossible that the system is going to be able to make money it's single entry approach trade at this point...and waiting for a bounce could be deadly as the bounce could come from much lower levels..
What's your point?
Posted by burkmere on 8th of Aug 2011 at 12:32 pm
I think their point is....
Posted by marketguy on 8th of Aug 2011 at 01:13 pm
Yes...it's down 11.2%
Posted by burkmere on 8th of Aug 2011 at 01:36 pm
from the single entry buy. I think people who are following this system have to give it 15-20 trades to see how it's going to do. We've had close to this much of a drawdown before, and the trade worked out. It may not this time. I think after 15-20 trades you will have to compare this system with the market and see how it does.
I think the folks here who are expressing the most emotion are probably over-leveraged in this trade. I don't think you can judge a system by five trades or so.
I agree about not being
Posted by algyros on 8th of Aug 2011 at 01:46 pm
I agree about not being able to judge a system by so few trades. However, I think that the system's performance so far is beginning to make it clear to people that backtested results aren't the same as historical results. They may turn out to be, but the only way to know that is to see how the system behaves in real time.
Yeah, said that a while
Posted by john9o9 on 9th of Aug 2011 at 09:20 am
Yeah, said that a while ago, nothing like live trading. I really like to see live trading for a significant length of time before putting significant capital into it. ESPECIALLY mean reversion systems! JMHO FWIW
agree
Posted by tsurplus on 9th of Aug 2011 at 09:41 am
yeah, hope/pray for a good bounce to turn this big loss into small one.
then reduce my allocation for it until it "behaves" over time...
My sense is that mean
Posted by john9o9 on 9th of Aug 2011 at 12:21 pm
My sense is that mean reversion system are harder to develop without curve fitting. Just the nature of the beast.
Yep...
Posted by burkmere on 8th of Aug 2011 at 01:48 pm