You are right. And it is too early. Secondly, I
intend to buy more than usual on the 4th signal (maybe today) since
it has always been 100% correct. If you don't stick with the
system, despite how bad the drawdown is, you might as well trade on
your own since it would no longer be a true mechanical
system. I have noticed that on longs the system enters early
some 60% of the time and sometimes leaves late. But that is
OK based on the historical results. When every body gets
nervous that is usually a good sign that sentiment has hit a
bottom. Now it could be that the 4th signal will be a loser
too, but it would be the first time ever, so the odds are so much
in our favor it would not be wise to ignore it.
1.3% as I recall.....so even if it "is" a loser, it has a good
chance of not being a big one.
Personally, I'm gonna give the SPY System some time...I'd say 20
trades is a pretty good amount of time. If it's underperforming the
market by then, I'll start to wonder...since the backtested results
would have been far, far superior to any underperformance
experienced after the 20 trades, etc.
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SPY System Results vs. the Market to date:
SPY System Results vs. the Market to date:
Posted by Robert50 on 3rd of Aug 2011 at 01:08 pm
You are right. And it is too early. Secondly, I intend to buy more than usual on the 4th signal (maybe today) since it has always been 100% correct. If you don't stick with the system, despite how bad the drawdown is, you might as well trade on your own since it would no longer be a true mechanical system. I have noticed that on longs the system enters early some 60% of the time and sometimes leaves late. But that is OK based on the historical results. When every body gets nervous that is usually a good sign that sentiment has hit a bottom. Now it could be that the 4th signal will be a loser too, but it would be the first time ever, so the odds are so much in our favor it would not be wise to ignore it.
Biggest loss using multi-entry system is...
Posted by burkmere on 3rd of Aug 2011 at 01:17 pm
1.3% as I recall.....so even if it "is" a loser, it has a good chance of not being a big one.
Personally, I'm gonna give the SPY System some time...I'd say 20 trades is a pretty good amount of time. If it's underperforming the market by then, I'll start to wonder...since the backtested results would have been far, far superior to any underperformance experienced after the 20 trades, etc.