I posted a few thoughts but basically took a lot of words to say
the same thing as you bk, lol. Seriously though, I don't want
to sound like I am beating anyone up but Matt and I talk all the
time about how often when we get feedback from members they say
they get a "deer in headlights" moment when the market starts
moving. Having a gameplan will help you. Sometimes your
gameplan will be wrong but you cannot win unless your in the
game.
Let's start by seeing what the markets reaction to ADP is and if
we are working with a gap up/down or flat and go from there.
Oh, lastly, looks like the system sent my email twice, not
sure why but I apologize for that.
Matts been showing that head and shoulders pattern for quite
some time say he didnt think it would play out. I wish you
guys would stop talking about plans when in fact there isnt any.
There is actually no point to this site unless you are looking to
scalp a point or two from the watch list.
The only reason I am paying is so I can use the SPY system. I
think if I hear "trade your plan" one more time on this site I am
going to throw a shoe through my computer screen.
Each night the updates show the up down and sidways
possibilities. Where is the plan . Ok its different for everyone
trherefore no plan is posted. The fact is there is no plan.
Posted by marketguy on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 08:20 pm
another I posted about a week ago say to short the "sh$t" out of
IWM under 82.75....almost $6 later we are getting some pretty nice
positive divergences currently (whether they take hold or not is
yet to be seen).....
Its up to each trader to have a plan. Not for BPT to provide a
plan for you. It would be impossible to provide a plan for everyone
as there are so many different trading styles and objectives.
As you know there is no crystal ball and technical trades are
made using your interpretation and experience. Therefore you have
to have a plan. Smart traders have more than one plan and project
several scenarios, which can even contrast each other at times. The
reward is taking the risk BEFORE the move/s in accordance your risk
and assessment and/or system/s. EG Bullish/Bearish over different
time-frames.
IMO Matt has an uncanny market sense - i appreciate when he
states his 'gut feel' as that keeps me on my toes. At the end of
the day the market is always right and smart technical traders will
conform to price action where they can interpret new
possibilities.
I really missed your rants, raves and general bitching.
Sounds like you have a trading plan which is to follow the SPY
Signals and it sounds like your plan is rooted in our research, you
know because we are a research firm.
I didn't post the chart to say look how brilliant we are.
It wasn't the predominantly or likely pattern, Matt favored the
triangle which was one of the other charts I posted, but recently
the EW counts have gotten more negative and the H&S did have
some probability even if more muted. It was noted in past
Newsletters and again tonight because it is a pattern I will be
watching and think has validity.
So your posts begs the question why are you listening to the
Newsletters, reading non SPY emails and even engaging on the
General board and not just the SPY board if you only here for the
SPY Swing System? Or is that just part of your gameplan?
So what's been my trading gameplan? Since about late March
I have believed Sell in May and go away would be in vogue. I
also believed during that late April to October time frame we
wouldn't experience major downs but it would be just more of a flat
period. With that in mind my trades have been selling
downside puts on names when volatility rises to bring in
premium. Taking short term position/swing trades and lastly
if I did take a position either do so by just dipping my toe or by
being hedged.
I also have two more general rules which is I generally do not
play earnings and I don't like to trade during major news events
and tend to be hedged or flat until the event ends and then get
back in.
That is just an example of what I am doing. Right or wrong
it helps me to have a bias and then if my bias is wrong I have
levels where I will switch my bias on a stock or the market.
I also like to then balance my bias off Matt & Steve's and see
if we are sympatico or not and that could cause me to alter my
view. Just what seems to work for me. Hope that
helps.
Rule number one: All traders must have their
own written plan for tradingthat includes their
trading strategies, set ups, exits, risk etc. The plan has to
suit your lifestyle, psychology, time frame, and is hopefully
profitable.
It is difficult to trade somebody else's plan. At best we
can share things about the overall market, share some trade
ideas. Catch something that you didn't catch on your own and get a
different perspective on the market than just your own. That
information is valuable. But, what you do with it depends on
your trading plan. So, if you don't have your own trading
plan, that should be step number one.
It will help you immensely as you move forward. Please
don't take this as criticism. It is not meant to be. I
didn't get it either until I had my own trading plan and rules in
place. The net is full of information about developing your
trading plan. It will take a lot of time but as you develop
your own set of rules your profits should increase
dramatically.
Just checking in after being away all day...I completely agree
with johnc statement. As you are aware, my personal approach was to
exit my longer term positions back in the spring. Since that time,
market has gyrated in a 100 point range (up and down) for the past
several months. Thus, a trading strategy was very appropriate with
several swings up and down during that time. Over the past few
weeks, I have highlighted the pattern this action has formed which
is a contracting triangle that now appears to favor a downside
resolution. The short term trend turned NEGATIVE once the 1330
support area was breached last week - this was discussed prior to
the break. This was another objective area for a swing short that
may turn into a much longer term play should the market break the
key pivot levels discussed in the weekend newsletter (please
review). I will post some updated charts since that time.
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I posted a few thoughts
FYI - This week, no newsletter this Tuesday
Posted by tom on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 06:40 pm
I posted a few thoughts but basically took a lot of words to say the same thing as you bk, lol. Seriously though, I don't want to sound like I am beating anyone up but Matt and I talk all the time about how often when we get feedback from members they say they get a "deer in headlights" moment when the market starts moving. Having a gameplan will help you. Sometimes your gameplan will be wrong but you cannot win unless your in the game.
Let's start by seeing what the markets reaction to ADP is and if we are working with a gap up/down or flat and go from there.
Oh, lastly, looks like the system sent my email twice, not sure why but I apologize for that.
What plan
Posted by RM686 on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 07:03 pm
Matts been showing that head and shoulders pattern for quite some time say he didnt think it would play out. I wish you guys would stop talking about plans when in fact there isnt any. There is actually no point to this site unless you are looking to scalp a point or two from the watch list.
The only reason I am paying is so I can use the SPY system. I think if I hear "trade your plan" one more time on this site I am going to throw a shoe through my computer screen.
Each night the updates show the up down and sidways possibilities. Where is the plan . Ok its different for everyone trherefore no plan is posted. The fact is there is no plan.
IWM.....
Posted by marketguy on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 08:20 pm
another I posted about a week ago say to short the "sh$t" out of IWM under 82.75....almost $6 later we are getting some pretty nice positive divergences currently (whether they take hold or not is yet to be seen).....
RM686
Posted by iwedat on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 07:54 pm
Its up to each trader to have a plan. Not for BPT to provide a plan for you. It would be impossible to provide a plan for everyone as there are so many different trading styles and objectives.
As you know there is no crystal ball and technical trades are made using your interpretation and experience. Therefore you have to have a plan. Smart traders have more than one plan and project several scenarios, which can even contrast each other at times. The reward is taking the risk BEFORE the move/s in accordance your risk and assessment and/or system/s. EG Bullish/Bearish over different time-frames.
IMO Matt has an uncanny market sense - i appreciate when he states his 'gut feel' as that keeps me on my toes. At the end of the day the market is always right and smart technical traders will conform to price action where they can interpret new possibilities.
Hope that helps, cheers.
Cheers.
Title: click to read comments Oh
Posted by tom on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 07:46 pm
Oh RM,
I really missed your rants, raves and general bitching. Sounds like you have a trading plan which is to follow the SPY Signals and it sounds like your plan is rooted in our research, you know because we are a research firm.
I didn't post the chart to say look how brilliant we are. It wasn't the predominantly or likely pattern, Matt favored the triangle which was one of the other charts I posted, but recently the EW counts have gotten more negative and the H&S did have some probability even if more muted. It was noted in past Newsletters and again tonight because it is a pattern I will be watching and think has validity.
So your posts begs the question why are you listening to the Newsletters, reading non SPY emails and even engaging on the General board and not just the SPY board if you only here for the SPY Swing System? Or is that just part of your gameplan?
So what's been my trading gameplan? Since about late March I have believed Sell in May and go away would be in vogue. I also believed during that late April to October time frame we wouldn't experience major downs but it would be just more of a flat period. With that in mind my trades have been selling downside puts on names when volatility rises to bring in premium. Taking short term position/swing trades and lastly if I did take a position either do so by just dipping my toe or by being hedged.
I also have two more general rules which is I generally do not play earnings and I don't like to trade during major news events and tend to be hedged or flat until the event ends and then get back in.
That is just an example of what I am doing. Right or wrong it helps me to have a bias and then if my bias is wrong I have levels where I will switch my bias on a stock or the market. I also like to then balance my bias off Matt & Steve's and see if we are sympatico or not and that could cause me to alter my view. Just what seems to work for me. Hope that helps.
RM
Posted by johnc on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 07:32 pm
Rule number one: All traders must have their own written plan for tradingthat includes their trading strategies, set ups, exits, risk etc. The plan has to suit your lifestyle, psychology, time frame, and is hopefully profitable.
It is difficult to trade somebody else's plan. At best we can share things about the overall market, share some trade ideas. Catch something that you didn't catch on your own and get a different perspective on the market than just your own. That information is valuable. But, what you do with it depends on your trading plan. So, if you don't have your own trading plan, that should be step number one.
It will help you immensely as you move forward. Please don't take this as criticism. It is not meant to be. I didn't get it either until I had my own trading plan and rules in place. The net is full of information about developing your trading plan. It will take a lot of time but as you develop your own set of rules your profits should increase dramatically.
Just checking in after being
Posted by steve on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 08:03 pm
Just checking in after being away all day...I completely agree with johnc statement. As you are aware, my personal approach was to exit my longer term positions back in the spring. Since that time, market has gyrated in a 100 point range (up and down) for the past several months. Thus, a trading strategy was very appropriate with several swings up and down during that time. Over the past few weeks, I have highlighted the pattern this action has formed which is a contracting triangle that now appears to favor a downside resolution. The short term trend turned NEGATIVE once the 1330 support area was breached last week - this was discussed prior to the break. This was another objective area for a swing short that may turn into a much longer term play should the market break the key pivot levels discussed in the weekend newsletter (please review). I will post some updated charts since that time.