Posted by burkmere on 13th of Jul 2011 at 12:02 pm
Ok, I'm not guaranteeing this is correct, but I did a quick and
dirty hand calculation of the performance of SPY (the etf) since
April 11th (when the first buy occurred) until the sell this
morning. This is what I get.
(Buy and hold)SPY= Buy was at 132.46 (April 11th)
(Buy and hold) SPY+ Sell was at 132.09 :
So, the result of buy and hold from April 11 until the
open this morning was a - .2%
In calculating the results of the five single entry trades since
the Spy System went live on April 11th (really almost exactly 3
months) the net result was a 4.68% profit.
So the Spy System has outperformed the market (using the SPY as
a proxy) by 4.70% in three months. And just using the
4.68% profit of the single entry SPY System in those three
months and annualizng it (times 4) the result is an annualized
return of 18.72%. That's not too bad and it's even had two
losing trades out of 5.
So, the lesson here (TO MYSELF AT LEAST..ha ha) is PATIENCE AND
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL WORK..until proven otherwise.
*Please feel free to check my calculatioins..this was a quick
and dirty I did.
Oh, also, if one used the multi-entry approach and used the same
amount for the first trade as in the single entry system, of
course, the rate of return would even be greater.
Good to compare notes on the returns. I set up a portfolio in
Yahoo to be able to track my actual SPY system trades independently
of other trades. After today's exit I show my portfolio using the
Multi system as up 1.2% from the start. Anyone else tracking actual
returns with the Multi?
I'm tracking the actual returns also. I'm using the Multi-entry
with SSO. It's showing that I'm up 2.66% with SSO since the system
went live. So looks like our results match up.
Posted by keithbob on 13th of Jul 2011 at 12:18 pm
thanks for the down and dirty analysis! :-)
I exited at the top of this trade which is a completely wrong
move when you are trading a system.. but... I netted a 13% profit
on the trade. Which means I'll be tempted again, no doubt and
will probably get burned. :-)
Posted by burkmere on 13th of Jul 2011 at 12:29 pm
I actually got out Friday at the double top in the ndx...yes,
ndx..but had been scaling back in because the trade wasn't
completed yet...and I figured it would exit higher at some
point....
If only I'd have held on this morning, eh? ..lol...
But, it's a system...and either follow it or suffer or reap the
consequences of not following it!! Right?
The trade netted almost a 4% return in less than a month even
though it was 3% higher on the close on Friday. Still, that's
a 48% annualized return! We have to keep things in
perspective. It's human nature to always want more, more,
more!!
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SPY System Results since April 11th vs. the "market"
Posted by burkmere on 13th of Jul 2011 at 12:02 pm
Ok, I'm not guaranteeing this is correct, but I did a quick and dirty hand calculation of the performance of SPY (the etf) since April 11th (when the first buy occurred) until the sell this morning. This is what I get.
(Buy and hold)SPY= Buy was at 132.46 (April 11th)
(Buy and hold) SPY+ Sell was at 132.09 : So, the result of buy and hold from April 11 until the open this morning was a - .2%
In calculating the results of the five single entry trades since the Spy System went live on April 11th (really almost exactly 3 months) the net result was a 4.68% profit.
So the Spy System has outperformed the market (using the SPY as a proxy) by 4.70% in three months. And just using the 4.68% profit of the single entry SPY System in those three months and annualizng it (times 4) the result is an annualized return of 18.72%. That's not too bad and it's even had two losing trades out of 5.
So, the lesson here (TO MYSELF AT LEAST..ha ha) is PATIENCE AND CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL WORK..until proven otherwise.
*Please feel free to check my calculatioins..this was a quick and dirty I did.
Oh, also, if one used the multi-entry approach and used the same amount for the first trade as in the single entry system, of course, the rate of return would even be greater.
Cheers, and thanks for bearing with me ...
Good to compare notes on
Posted by bkout3 on 13th of Jul 2011 at 04:25 pm
Good to compare notes on the returns. I set up a portfolio in Yahoo to be able to track my actual SPY system trades independently of other trades. After today's exit I show my portfolio using the Multi system as up 1.2% from the start. Anyone else tracking actual returns with the Multi?
I'm tracking the actual returns
Posted by cw12 on 13th of Jul 2011 at 08:05 pm
I'm tracking the actual returns also. I'm using the Multi-entry with SSO. It's showing that I'm up 2.66% with SSO since the system went live. So looks like our results match up.
thanks
Posted by keithbob on 13th of Jul 2011 at 12:18 pm
thanks for the down and dirty analysis! :-)
I exited at the top of this trade which is a completely wrong move when you are trading a system.. but... I netted a 13% profit on the trade. Which means I'll be tempted again, no doubt and will probably get burned. :-)
In the interest of full disclosure...
Posted by burkmere on 13th of Jul 2011 at 12:29 pm
I actually got out Friday at the double top in the ndx...yes, ndx..but had been scaling back in because the trade wasn't completed yet...and I figured it would exit higher at some point....
If only I'd have held on this morning, eh? ..lol...
But, it's a system...and either follow it or suffer or reap the consequences of not following it!! Right?
The trade netted almost a 4% return in less than a month even though it was 3% higher on the close on Friday. Still, that's a 48% annualized return! We have to keep things in perspective. It's human nature to always want more, more, more!!