I talked with a friend over over the weekend who had some
fascinating research about how gold stocks dramatically
underperformed the metal by a lot during most of the huge bull
market in the 70s, just as they have in this bull market. The
stocks did not outperform until after gold had topped out in 1980.
The big rally in gold stocks apparently took place during the rally
back, after gold had dropped from over 800 to 450, and then rallied
back to 750, before going into a very long bear market.
He said that Newmont, one of the leaders back then, did not
better its 1972 price until late '79, which is just amazing. The
incredible thing is that Newmont peaked in '81, AFTER gold had
fallen from 850 to 450! Apparently similar action took place in the
other leading miners.
And then, almost like this info was suddenly in the air, I
listened to an interview with Jim Sinclair who made pretty much the
same point.
Given that the major miners have underperformed the metal
throughout this bull market as well, maybe there is a lesson from
the past. I can't say I really understand why this was the case
then, or now (I know the theory about the hedge funds shorting the
miners against the bullion now, which may be true, but there were
not hedge funds back then). If anyone can add any insight on this
it would be interesting. If nothing else, it sure raises an
interesting historical insight into bullion vs the miners.
Not sure about this, but most gold producers may have hedged
their output in the last bull market in Gold. This time, however,
most gold producers removed their hedges...
Gold stocks underperformed during the whole 70s bull market
Posted by puma on 15th of May 2011 at 11:25 pm
I talked with a friend over over the weekend who had some fascinating research about how gold stocks dramatically underperformed the metal by a lot during most of the huge bull market in the 70s, just as they have in this bull market. The stocks did not outperform until after gold had topped out in 1980. The big rally in gold stocks apparently took place during the rally back, after gold had dropped from over 800 to 450, and then rallied back to 750, before going into a very long bear market.
He said that Newmont, one of the leaders back then, did not better its 1972 price until late '79, which is just amazing. The incredible thing is that Newmont peaked in '81, AFTER gold had fallen from 850 to 450! Apparently similar action took place in the other leading miners.
And then, almost like this info was suddenly in the air, I listened to an interview with Jim Sinclair who made pretty much the same point.
Here's the Sinclair interview:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/11_Jim_Sinclair.html
Given that the major miners have underperformed the metal throughout this bull market as well, maybe there is a lesson from the past. I can't say I really understand why this was the case then, or now (I know the theory about the hedge funds shorting the miners against the bullion now, which may be true, but there were not hedge funds back then). If anyone can add any insight on this it would be interesting. If nothing else, it sure raises an interesting historical insight into bullion vs the miners.
Makes you wonder if GDX/GLD
Posted by bkout3 on 16th of May 2011 at 09:19 am
Makes you wonder if GDX/GLD or $HUI/$GOLD going up is really a good predictor of gold price.
TY Puma.
Posted by dpack on 16th of May 2011 at 08:47 am
TY Puma.
Not sure about this, but
Posted by coolhat on 16th of May 2011 at 08:01 am
Not sure about this, but most gold producers may have hedged their output in the last bull market in Gold. This time, however, most gold producers removed their hedges...
read this from steve saville...
Posted by 8899 on 15th of May 2011 at 11:40 pm
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/saville051011.html
he shows that gold stocks underperformed until later...
I was going to suggest
Posted by sbwoman on 16th of May 2011 at 09:36 am
I was going to suggest reading steve sayville too. he has some insights into this disconnect. But it makes me wonder why did I ever buy gdx?
Thanks 8899 -- That gold-eagle
Posted by puma on 15th of May 2011 at 11:48 pm
Thanks 8899 -- That gold-eagle piece sums it up really well -- clearly selected juniors have been the place to be, other than the metal itself.