For those who think they have until the end of June with the Fed
put under the market, John Hussman calculates that $523B of the
projected $600B of long term treasury purchases had already been
made by April 7th (looking directly at New York Fed records).
He also calculates the amount remaining if the target is to get
the Fed's total portfolio to $2.6T and that would have left $179B
as of early April. Either way over 85% would have been done by the
meeting last week.
So the end is more likely to come in the next few weeks than
sometime in June. The rollover will still go on, but balance sheet
expansion is almost over. It's going to be hard to party with no
punch bowl additions.
joseph -- so if I'm understanding your chart right the "lower
thin yellow line" is from last August's low and would be broken
today if we went to around 1305 -- is that right?
Turning Point of the market has been reached
Posted by joseph1 on 2nd of May 2011 at 01:05 pm
be very careful at this point!!!! High probability point of reversing.
Joseph - nice chart and
Posted by steve on 2nd of May 2011 at 01:51 pm
Joseph - nice chart and thanks for posting.
Title: thank you joseph1 thank you
Posted by lg on 2nd of May 2011 at 01:48 pm
thank you joseph1
Excellent chart, joseph1,,,thank you.
Posted by bag4 on 2nd of May 2011 at 01:39 pm
Excellent chart, joseph1,,,thank you.
it`s my last good deed for the board and you!!!
Posted by joseph1 on 2nd of May 2011 at 01:49 pm
you will be missed, joseph,,,
Posted by bag4 on 2nd of May 2011 at 01:58 pm
you will be missed, joseph,,, keep in touch, k?
what" Last deed...NNOOOOOOOO
Posted by perthx on 2nd of May 2011 at 01:52 pm
I am just digesting that Gartley doohicky...what kind of time frame does that Gartley you posted have to play out? Months weeks years???
The Gartley developed years, but can play out very soon
Posted by joseph1 on 2nd of May 2011 at 02:19 pm
or break of trendline.
Along these lines, POMO is closer to done than many think:
Posted by lessarda on 2nd of May 2011 at 03:04 pm
For those who think they have until the end of June with the Fed put under the market, John Hussman calculates that $523B of the projected $600B of long term treasury purchases had already been made by April 7th (looking directly at New York Fed records).
He also calculates the amount remaining if the target is to get the Fed's total portfolio to $2.6T and that would have left $179B as of early April. Either way over 85% would have been done by the meeting last week.
So the end is more likely to come in the next few weeks than sometime in June. The rollover will still go on, but balance sheet expansion is almost over. It's going to be hard to party with no punch bowl additions.
thank you for your post
Posted by cwa82675 on 2nd of May 2011 at 01:15 pm
thank you for your post Joseph1, where would you target the price if it does turn?
Confirmation is the Break of the lower yellow thin line
Posted by joseph1 on 2nd of May 2011 at 01:32 pm
after that I have to look at my price target model the get the next possible Points. I still expect afterwards to see new highs.
joseph -- so if I'm
Posted by bkout3 on 2nd of May 2011 at 01:53 pm
joseph -- so if I'm understanding your chart right the "lower thin yellow line" is from last August's low and would be broken today if we went to around 1305 -- is that right?
yes, that`s right
Posted by joseph1 on 2nd of May 2011 at 01:55 pm