Looking at the charts of the NDX right now is sort of like that
classic optical illusion poster where (depending on how you look at
things), you see either a beautiful young lady (bull market), or an
ugly old hag (bear market). Yes, the trend is up. Yes,
Bernanke and his goons will buy up everything.
So.... what is it? A giant A-B-C correction on the Nasdaq
100 (from the peak in 2000); or the start of another decade? long
bull market that will climb a wall of worry like no other (take a
look at the mid cap index at all time highs).
Matt/Steve, can we conclude anything about the slope of the run
in the NDX? It is a a steeper rise than the 2003-2007
corrective upleg. Is this long term bullish, or does it
signify a blow off top mania that will be followed by an equally
spectacular crash?
edit: for the C leg to equal that A leg, there is another
70 points to go (2.9 % higher); this roughly corresponds to the
$RUT tacking on 2.6% to touch its all-time high and the SP500
tacking on 1.5% to take it to the 1363 pivot. This might
happen next week!
Posted by frtaylor on 20th of Feb 2011 at 05:59 pm
For me, a novice to the stock market generally (began paying
attention in fall '08), and technicals in particular (joined BPT in
August), this represents the main reason to devote more % to the
GDX swing system for my admittedly small accounts. It really won't
matter what the market does if I'm trading GDX; just obey the
mechanical signals. Does this make sense? I'd love to hear any
feedback.
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Title: New bull or hibernating
Posted by kalinm on 20th of Feb 2011 at 01:30 pm
Looking at the charts of the NDX right now is sort of like that classic optical illusion poster where (depending on how you look at things), you see either a beautiful young lady (bull market), or an ugly old hag (bear market). Yes, the trend is up. Yes, Bernanke and his goons will buy up everything.
So.... what is it? A giant A-B-C correction on the Nasdaq 100 (from the peak in 2000); or the start of another decade? long bull market that will climb a wall of worry like no other (take a look at the mid cap index at all time highs).
M3 financial has this to point out....
http://m3financialsense.blogspot.com/2011/02/nasdaq-100-chart-revisited.html
Matt/Steve, can we conclude anything about the slope of the run in the NDX? It is a a steeper rise than the 2003-2007 corrective upleg. Is this long term bullish, or does it signify a blow off top mania that will be followed by an equally spectacular crash?
edit: for the C leg to equal that A leg, there is another 70 points to go (2.9 % higher); this roughly corresponds to the $RUT tacking on 2.6% to touch its all-time high and the SP500 tacking on 1.5% to take it to the 1363 pivot. This might happen next week!
For me, a novice to
Posted by frtaylor on 20th of Feb 2011 at 05:59 pm
For me, a novice to the stock market generally (began paying attention in fall '08), and technicals in particular (joined BPT in August), this represents the main reason to devote more % to the GDX swing system for my admittedly small accounts. It really won't matter what the market does if I'm trading GDX; just obey the mechanical signals. Does this make sense? I'd love to hear any feedback.