Posted by lessarda on 26th of Jan 2011 at 12:26 pm
I don't, but follow the COT data and some of the news. For KC
and MN wheat prices, it's been an Australia flooding story and
bullishness has just increased over Cyclone Bianca closing
ports there. The COT KC data shows the Commercials (true
hedgers) cutting shorts from exteme levels over the last quarter,
with the Non-commercials (speculators/funds) reducing longs for the
last quarter. The Non-c's tend to lead price and there's a lot of
unwinding they could still do (down from net 80K long to net 60K
long, but that's still at an extreme for the past 5 years). As
usual, the commercials are exact mirrors, having cut shorts from
80K to 60K. Price is obviously still bullish, with higher highs and
higher lows.
Still looks really high to me. Lat high was 868 in August and it
fell $2 - tat's huge if you can catch it right. I'm watching and
might start a short here at 858 with a tight stop. I'll be right
one day.
Wheat /ZW Anyone trade this?
Posted by philr on 26th of Jan 2011 at 11:45 am
Looks like we are close to a top. Anyone following Wheat? Lat time it topped i treally fell hard.
Wheat...
Posted by lessarda on 26th of Jan 2011 at 12:26 pm
I don't, but follow the COT data and some of the news. For KC and MN wheat prices, it's been an Australia flooding story and bullishness has just increased over Cyclone Bianca closing ports there. The COT KC data shows the Commercials (true hedgers) cutting shorts from exteme levels over the last quarter, with the Non-commercials (speculators/funds) reducing longs for the last quarter. The Non-c's tend to lead price and there's a lot of unwinding they could still do (down from net 80K long to net 60K long, but that's still at an extreme for the past 5 years). As usual, the commercials are exact mirrors, having cut shorts from 80K to 60K. Price is obviously still bullish, with higher highs and higher lows.
wheat ZW
Posted by philr on 26th of Jan 2011 at 12:47 pm
Still looks really high to me. Lat high was 868 in August and it fell $2 - tat's huge if you can catch it right. I'm watching and might start a short here at 858 with a tight stop. I'll be right one day.
philr, sounds like you are picking a top?
Posted by kobie on 26th of Jan 2011 at 12:53 pm
Wheat top
Posted by philr on 26th of Jan 2011 at 01:55 pm
Trying to pick a top. Might get burned with the wheat.