Anyone who brags about nailing the
exact top or bottom has unsuccessfully nailed dozens or tops and
bottoms over the years. If they keep trying, they will eventually
succeed. As I say, a stopped clock is correct twice a day.
Short term traders can brag about
picking tops, but they’re also the ones who only made 2 points of a
10 point move. There’s nothing wrong with that. Many traders make a
good living hitting singles, but it comes with the territory that
if you want to patiently sit in positions to expose yourself to the
possibility of nailing larger moves, you have to accept you will
miss the turns.
This is why it’s so important to
clearly define the type of trader you are or want to be and clearly
establish a specific trading style which you can execute over and
over. Then you accept what comes with the territory. If you’re a
day trader, then
hit singles and shoot for consistency. If you’re a
swing trader,
you’re winning % will be lower, but you’ll be compensated with
bigger winners. Either way is a great way to make a living, but you
can’t/shouldn’t do both. Figure out what is best for you and stick
with that.
Also, one point I'd like to makeis that I've had
some recent emails from folks telling me that they are not day
traders (they are swing traders or position traders) and do not
think BPT is for them.
BPT IS NOT a day trading site,
in fact
most here work day jobsand don't day trade.
We simply provide the research and trade ideas (which takes many
hrs so you don't have to), you pick what you want to use. We
provide long term analysis with our weekly charts, swing trade
ideas, as well as short term day trade ideas. Decide what type of
trader you are and
filter out everything
else. I
f you are a swing trader,
then ignore the day
trades on the BLOGthat are posted by some
members.
I'm finding too that without the experience of a clearly defined
style, which seems to be the hardest part to learn, it is
quite difficult to know what to filter out in the blog, or at least
to discipline yourself to do so, although it is clear from sitting
in on the blog that that is a necessity, or else I'm wasting my
whole day sitting there with my head reeling, tempted to enter on
all the short term signals on all sorts of stocks, unclear which
are which, falling for my worst habits of taking on more than I'm
capable of, and not fully equipped on the follow through. What is
obvious to a newcomer, though somewhat understandable, is that
there is a fairly wide gulf generally between the blog and the
evening updates.
I'm starting to think of developing my own hard & fast
rules, but thinking that a good place to start is sticking to 2-3
indices and a triple timeframe daily-hrly-15m, and maybe drilling
down to 3m if I'm around and forgetting about all the
individual stock stuff till I can succesfully nail that. Not that I
haven't thought that through before and failed, falling for
overtrading and lack of focus and organization. I've tried so many
different approaches with less than stellar success. I've been
doing a good deal of this for a few years and I'm not stupid
but I still feel like a beginner.
Do you you agree this this kind of focus before being able to
range around is essential to learning this properly? I feel like
I'm in need of reform from 50 positions on many timeframes to a
maximum of 5 fully monitored, scaled in & out, and
rule-bound.
Like many I suspect, I want to be a swing trader only, checking
in a few times a day maybe with a handful of alarms running. Does
this sound like a good way to you? I know it's not your job to help
people get their system straight, but I suspect this is the issue
with may others like me, so succinct advice on a good way in eg
stockcharts? QT? real time? 3 monitors setup might help you
keep & better satisfy many of your clients.
Also though I appreciate your wider perspective and dedication
already, maybe you could consider very specifically tailoring
certain blog posts (perhaps a different colour?) or one of your
guys each day to the swingers eg timely posts on the week's top 3
indexes on 15 and 60m timeframes, with warnings/entries on all
timeframes down to 3m, eg I was thinking of following only SPY, GDX
and USO right now, and maybe a few days from now that selection
could change.
This along perhaps with exact records of watch list entries
& exits (which I'm finding a little unclear whether they ever
got entered) say to a maximum of 2 on top of the
indexes. Maybe even an initial target and stop loss for the indices
based on the entry time frame.
I know you guys don't want to be burdened in your own
trading overly, but I think if the majority of members are in this
workaday swingers camp, it may be worth it to you to focus even
more effort in this direction, so they can sign in at the open and
close & random times of the day and get a clear picture
from the blog what is pertinent to them in this simpler style and
how the picture from the evening update appears to be playing out,
(opinion only of course, but that's what we're after!)
and decide for themselves if they're still in time to carry
it out.
Together I think even though it sounds like
handholding, these moves would make the blog less
dizzying and a better learning experience, until it could be
digested whole. But maybe you have a better simple system to
suggest that is profitable and educational at the same time.
I offer these ideas/feedback because I think you're already
doing a great job and are clearly committed do doing the best you
can, and seem to be in a positon to pull such a thing off without
too much drama. And I think the results could be awesome.
Posted by dodgerdog on 18th of Jul 2008 at 07:59 am
Oil is technically broken - unless some big geopolitical event
transpires I would use rallies to sell crude oil and look to other
areas for the next several weeks at least. Many people became
complacent here and thus got trapped and will be looking to sell on
any rallies. Most oil stocks are now oversold but truthfully
look awful on the charts suggesting lower prices over time.
Watch for a possible backtest of the broken uptrend line which
has a good chance of occurring before further selling unfolds.
Posted by wondernut98 on 18th of Jul 2008 at 12:24 pm
If the talks with Iran go well over
the week end it will be oil at 100. I think GS has big
positions on the oil futures and needs to get the price back
up.
just listening to an oil floor trader saying oil is deeply
oversold for a variety of reasons, - Korea, technically, he can see
a short-covering rally next week. He doesn't see it going
lower than around 122 . . . . we'll see.
....then again, if it is too much to take on, regarding this
first post at least, I'd understand if you consider it my
responsibity to sort that out myself over time.
Well spoken... I'll admit it I haven't ever got the bottom on
any one of my trades ONLY what I thought was the bottom because of
guessing entry points and exit points only to get my REAL BOTTOM
spanked and lose $$$$
Dodger and Matt - Thank you for all the hard work you do for
this site and assisting people like me who work full time and
cannot follow/research market direction all time.
Chris
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Traders - Define Yourself
Posted by matt on 17th of Jul 2008 at 04:24 pm
Anyone who brags about nailing the exact top or bottom has unsuccessfully nailed dozens or tops and bottoms over the years. If they keep trying, they will eventually succeed. As I say, a stopped clock is correct twice a day.
Short term traders can brag about picking tops, but they’re also the ones who only made 2 points of a 10 point move. There’s nothing wrong with that. Many traders make a good living hitting singles, but it comes with the territory that if you want to patiently sit in positions to expose yourself to the possibility of nailing larger moves, you have to accept you will miss the turns.
This is why it’s so important to clearly define the type of trader you are or want to be and clearly establish a specific trading style which you can execute over and over. Then you accept what comes with the territory. If you’re a day trader, then hit singles and shoot for consistency. If you’re a swing trader, you’re winning % will be lower, but you’ll be compensated with bigger winners. Either way is a great way to make a living, but you can’t/shouldn’t do both. Figure out what is best for you and stick with that.
Also, one point I'd like to makeis that I've had some recent emails from folks telling me that they are not day traders (they are swing traders or position traders) and do not think BPT is for them. BPT IS NOT a day trading site, in fact most here work day jobsand don't day trade. We simply provide the research and trade ideas (which takes many hrs so you don't have to), you pick what you want to use. We provide long term analysis with our weekly charts, swing trade ideas, as well as short term day trade ideas. Decide what type of trader you are and filter out everything else. I f you are a swing trader, then ignore the day trades on the BLOGthat are posted by some members.
Blog suggestions/feedback for swing traders
Posted by kreem on 18th of Jul 2008 at 12:44 am
Hey, Matt, Dodger etc
I'm finding too that without the experience of a clearly defined style, which seems to be the hardest part to learn, it is quite difficult to know what to filter out in the blog, or at least to discipline yourself to do so, although it is clear from sitting in on the blog that that is a necessity, or else I'm wasting my whole day sitting there with my head reeling, tempted to enter on all the short term signals on all sorts of stocks, unclear which are which, falling for my worst habits of taking on more than I'm capable of, and not fully equipped on the follow through. What is obvious to a newcomer, though somewhat understandable, is that there is a fairly wide gulf generally between the blog and the evening updates.
I'm starting to think of developing my own hard & fast rules, but thinking that a good place to start is sticking to 2-3 indices and a triple timeframe daily-hrly-15m, and maybe drilling down to 3m if I'm around and forgetting about all the individual stock stuff till I can succesfully nail that. Not that I haven't thought that through before and failed, falling for overtrading and lack of focus and organization. I've tried so many different approaches with less than stellar success. I've been doing a good deal of this for a few years and I'm not stupid but I still feel like a beginner.
Do you you agree this this kind of focus before being able to range around is essential to learning this properly? I feel like I'm in need of reform from 50 positions on many timeframes to a maximum of 5 fully monitored, scaled in & out, and rule-bound.
Like many I suspect, I want to be a swing trader only, checking in a few times a day maybe with a handful of alarms running. Does this sound like a good way to you? I know it's not your job to help people get their system straight, but I suspect this is the issue with may others like me, so succinct advice on a good way in eg stockcharts? QT? real time? 3 monitors setup might help you keep & better satisfy many of your clients.
Also though I appreciate your wider perspective and dedication already, maybe you could consider very specifically tailoring certain blog posts (perhaps a different colour?) or one of your guys each day to the swingers eg timely posts on the week's top 3 indexes on 15 and 60m timeframes, with warnings/entries on all timeframes down to 3m, eg I was thinking of following only SPY, GDX and USO right now, and maybe a few days from now that selection could change.
This along perhaps with exact records of watch list entries & exits (which I'm finding a little unclear whether they ever got entered) say to a maximum of 2 on top of the indexes. Maybe even an initial target and stop loss for the indices based on the entry time frame.
I know you guys don't want to be burdened in your own trading overly, but I think if the majority of members are in this workaday swingers camp, it may be worth it to you to focus even more effort in this direction, so they can sign in at the open and close & random times of the day and get a clear picture from the blog what is pertinent to them in this simpler style and how the picture from the evening update appears to be playing out, (opinion only of course, but that's what we're after!) and decide for themselves if they're still in time to carry it out.
Together I think even though it sounds like handholding, these moves would make the blog less dizzying and a better learning experience, until it could be digested whole. But maybe you have a better simple system to suggest that is profitable and educational at the same time.
I offer these ideas/feedback because I think you're already doing a great job and are clearly committed do doing the best you can, and seem to be in a positon to pull such a thing off without too much drama. And I think the results could be awesome.
Cheers and good luck
Nick
Crude Oil
Posted by dodgerdog on 18th of Jul 2008 at 07:59 am
Oil is technically broken - unless some big geopolitical event transpires I would use rallies to sell crude oil and look to other areas for the next several weeks at least. Many people became complacent here and thus got trapped and will be looking to sell on any rallies. Most oil stocks are now oversold but truthfully look awful on the charts suggesting lower prices over time.
Watch for a possible backtest of the broken uptrend line which has a good chance of occurring before further selling unfolds.
GS came out and reiterated
Posted by dylan398 on 18th of Jul 2008 at 10:03 am
GS came out and reiterated oil to 150.......shame on them....couldn't even let oil break for a few days..greedy bastages
Oil at 150
Posted by wondernut98 on 18th of Jul 2008 at 12:24 pm
If the talks with Iran go well over the week end it will be oil at 100. I think GS has big positions on the oil futures and needs to get the price back up.
just listening to an oil
Posted by Michael on 18th of Jul 2008 at 12:32 pm
just listening to an oil floor trader saying oil is deeply oversold for a variety of reasons, - Korea, technically, he can see a short-covering rally next week. He doesn't see it going lower than around 122 . . . . we'll see.
Hum .. Interesting call by
Posted by cspirit on 18th of Jul 2008 at 10:09 am
Hum .. Interesting call by GS. I just went long DTO at 10AM when Oil backtested near $132. First small entry postion. I guess will see what happens
Matt/Dodger - Thoughts on DTO entry point at 132 since trendline and 50EMA was lost yesterday? I waited for backtest back to 132 for my entry.
Chris
....then again, if it is
Posted by kreem on 18th of Jul 2008 at 02:25 am
....then again, if it is too much to take on, regarding this first post at least, I'd understand if you consider it my responsibity to sort that out myself over time.
Matt, Well spoken... I'll admit it
Posted by cspirit on 17th of Jul 2008 at 07:19 pm
Matt,
Well spoken... I'll admit it I haven't ever got the bottom on any one of my trades ONLY what I thought was the bottom because of guessing entry points and exit points only to get my REAL BOTTOM spanked and lose $$$$
Dodger and Matt - Thank you for all the hard work you do for this site and assisting people like me who work full time and cannot follow/research market direction all time.
Chris