Mamaduck, thanks for the great charts.  I am probably early on this (as usual) so will keep my stops tight - TBT may very well have more downside, but I think there is a nice trade developing here. I don't want to think about what will happen if there is not a good trade here, as that will mean we are headed to the deflationary abyss.

The scariest charts you show are the longer term views of TBT, which appear to be descending triangles...would like your opinion on this....I don't use longer term charts on leveraged ETFs because price levels are subject to so much decay vs. the underlying asset.  TBT has lost about 35% of its value relative to the underlying asset (compare to TYX) since the December 2008 lows - about 1.5% per month! Since most traders are probably not holding leveraged ETFs more than a couple months, that's the time frame I think the charts for TBT are useful.  

The last time I can remember the media and general feeling about the market being this negative was in early July, so perhaps this is close to an intermediate bottom.   Could be  wishful thinking, time will tell.