Posted by mamaduck on 14th of Aug 2010 at 02:29 am
Ducksoup, you may be onto something big here... Have a look at
these charts, but I also present one opposite case too which will
see TBT go below 32...
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 11:12 am
Mamaduck, thanks for the great charts. I am probably early
on this (as usual) so will keep my stops tight - TBT may very well
have more downside, but I think there is a nice trade developing
here. I don't want to think about what will happen if there is not
a good trade here, as that will mean we are headed to the
deflationary abyss.
The scariest charts you show are the longer term views of TBT,
which appear to be descending triangles...would like your opinion
on this....I don't use longer term charts on leveraged ETFs because
price levels are subject to so much decay vs. the underlying
asset. TBT has lost about 35% of its value relative to the
underlying asset (compare to TYX) since the December 2008 lows -
about 1.5% per month! Since most traders are probably not holding
leveraged ETFs more than a couple months, that's the time frame I
think the charts for TBT are useful.
The last time I can remember the media and general feeling about
the market being this negative was in early July, so perhaps this
is close to an intermediate bottom. Could be wishful
thinking, time will tell.
Posted by mamaduck on 14th of Aug 2010 at 06:24 pm
Ducksoup, you have a very good point about leveraged ETF
decay... So I took your advice and looked at TYX. The conclusion is
very similar, though this one is more of a wait another day or two
to see what happens...
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 07:18 pm
thanks, wish I had seen these charts on Friday before I made a
move ... it really does look like tyx needs another move down to
complete the next divergent low, and the resistance from Feb-March
should kick in not too much further down, but best to wait and see
as you say
Oh well, will keep the stops tight and take my medicine to live
another day if necessary....
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Bonds
TLT breakout
Posted by mamaduck on 14th of Aug 2010 at 02:29 am
Ducksoup, you may be onto something big here... Have a look at these charts, but I also present one opposite case too which will see TBT go below 32...
Bonds
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 11:12 am
Mamaduck, thanks for the great charts. I am probably early on this (as usual) so will keep my stops tight - TBT may very well have more downside, but I think there is a nice trade developing here. I don't want to think about what will happen if there is not a good trade here, as that will mean we are headed to the deflationary abyss.
The scariest charts you show are the longer term views of TBT, which appear to be descending triangles...would like your opinion on this....I don't use longer term charts on leveraged ETFs because price levels are subject to so much decay vs. the underlying asset. TBT has lost about 35% of its value relative to the underlying asset (compare to TYX) since the December 2008 lows - about 1.5% per month! Since most traders are probably not holding leveraged ETFs more than a couple months, that's the time frame I think the charts for TBT are useful.
The last time I can remember the media and general feeling about the market being this negative was in early July, so perhaps this is close to an intermediate bottom. Could be wishful thinking, time will tell.
Bonds
Posted by mamaduck on 14th of Aug 2010 at 06:24 pm
Ducksoup, you have a very good point about leveraged ETF decay... So I took your advice and looked at TYX. The conclusion is very similar, though this one is more of a wait another day or two to see what happens...
Bonds
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 07:18 pm
thanks, wish I had seen these charts on Friday before I made a move ... it really does look like tyx needs another move down to complete the next divergent low, and the resistance from Feb-March should kick in not too much further down, but best to wait and see as you say
Oh well, will keep the stops tight and take my medicine to live another day if necessary....