Yes, maybe you guys are smarter than this, but as well as
trading I have what's known as a 'portfolio' which includes what
seemed like some sensible basic materials, ags, water,
infrastructure, oil and gold, and I don't think I've seen them all
tank together before.
Some advice on whehter I should panic along with the rest
of them or sit it out till everyone's had a nice sleep this weekend
would be appreciated.
kreem - first thing is to be really clear about the time-frame
of your portfolio investments, and not let trading considerations
creep over into longer-term investments. Bottom line is, oil
will correct at some point but within a year or 18 months it will
most likely be 200/barrel. Gold and gold stocks may correct
but sometime around when oil is 200, gold will be 1600 . . .
Agricultural is correcting right now, but food costs are only going
to go higher, not lower.
Kreen - you really have to make
your decisions based on your personal tolerance and generally that
should be done ahead of the trade. If you have profits, maybe
tighten up your stops. If you have losses, you have to decide where
you are comfortable and what time frame you expect. The clock
always comes back to 12 so it could be that today tries to whipsaw
the amateurs around. JMO!
Thanks, yes, I find it difficult to separate time frames when it
looks like you guys are doing so much better just waiting and
pouncing at the right time.
I am clear on the fundamentals, but seeing lately the
commodities outperforming their respective stocks (which none of my
advisors seemed to to foretell), and what looked like an awesome
long-short portfolio having it's profits wiped out (admittedly
breaking even is probably better than most right now) I've
been transitioning back into the idea of only trading with those
fundamentals in the background rather than holding long term in the
same account through thick and thin. I have a lot of positions too,
so the temptation to go in and trade them when I see certain ones
freaking out is strong. I also toyed with the idea of getting
separate accounts so I wouldn't be tempted to touch the long term
stuff - 'out of sight, out of mind'!.
What I like about this site is that Matt etc seem to hold all
these perspectives very well, though the blog seems generally much
more now -in-whatever-hot-stock-focussed which seems more the usual
in chat rooms, regardless of whether it coincides with the tenor of
the evening updates. It's good at least that he keeps us
intermediate folks somewhat in the loop on the 'bigger' technical
picture intraday and how that relates to the evening commentaries.
For me at least it would be cool if others could participate a bit
more in that too.
kreem -- I have found that I definitely need a seperate account
for longer term investments. In fasct, because of my
temperment, I even need a seperate account for swing trading and
one for shorter-term day trades or overnight trades.
Otherwise I second-guess my plans and mix my tinme-frames
up.
Yes, maybe you guys are
crazy
Posted by kreem on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:16 am
Yes, maybe you guys are smarter than this, but as well as trading I have what's known as a 'portfolio' which includes what seemed like some sensible basic materials, ags, water, infrastructure, oil and gold, and I don't think I've seen them all tank together before.
Some advice on whehter I should panic along with the rest of them or sit it out till everyone's had a nice sleep this weekend would be appreciated.
kreem - first thing is
Posted by Michael on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:25 am
kreem - first thing is to be really clear about the time-frame of your portfolio investments, and not let trading considerations creep over into longer-term investments. Bottom line is, oil will correct at some point but within a year or 18 months it will most likely be 200/barrel. Gold and gold stocks may correct but sometime around when oil is 200, gold will be 1600 . . . Agricultural is correcting right now, but food costs are only going to go higher, not lower.
Portfolio Thoughts
Posted by rvk1958 on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:21 am
Kreen - you really have to make your decisions based on your personal tolerance and generally that should be done ahead of the trade. If you have profits, maybe tighten up your stops. If you have losses, you have to decide where you are comfortable and what time frame you expect. The clock always comes back to 12 so it could be that today tries to whipsaw the amateurs around. JMO!
Portfolio & 'big' picture on blog
Posted by kreem on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:45 am
Thanks, yes, I find it difficult to separate time frames when it looks like you guys are doing so much better just waiting and pouncing at the right time.
I am clear on the fundamentals, but seeing lately the commodities outperforming their respective stocks (which none of my advisors seemed to to foretell), and what looked like an awesome long-short portfolio having it's profits wiped out (admittedly breaking even is probably better than most right now) I've been transitioning back into the idea of only trading with those fundamentals in the background rather than holding long term in the same account through thick and thin. I have a lot of positions too, so the temptation to go in and trade them when I see certain ones freaking out is strong. I also toyed with the idea of getting separate accounts so I wouldn't be tempted to touch the long term stuff - 'out of sight, out of mind'!.
What I like about this site is that Matt etc seem to hold all these perspectives very well, though the blog seems generally much more now -in-whatever-hot-stock-focussed which seems more the usual in chat rooms, regardless of whether it coincides with the tenor of the evening updates. It's good at least that he keeps us intermediate folks somewhat in the loop on the 'bigger' technical picture intraday and how that relates to the evening commentaries. For me at least it would be cool if others could participate a bit more in that too.
All the best.
kreem -- I have found
Posted by Michael on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:50 am
kreem -- I have found that I definitely need a seperate account for longer term investments. In fasct, because of my temperment, I even need a seperate account for swing trading and one for shorter-term day trades or overnight trades. Otherwise I second-guess my plans and mix my tinme-frames up.
I wouldn't make any big
Posted by matt on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:18 am
I wouldn't make any big emotional decisions today