Crazy

    crazy

    Posted by rvk1958 on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:09 am

    Volatility in insanely nuts. Just watch the indexes they are leaping from pos to neg - not trading between the two points. Another great reason to not attempt to do much today. The trainees are out in the street without their training wheels today!

    Yes, maybe you guys are

    Posted by kreem on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:16 am

    Yes, maybe you guys are smarter than this, but as well as trading I have what's known as a 'portfolio' which includes what seemed like some sensible basic materials, ags, water, infrastructure, oil and gold, and I don't think I've seen them all tank together before.

    Some advice on whehter I should panic along  with the rest of them or sit it out till everyone's had a nice sleep this weekend would be appreciated.

    kreem - first thing is

    Posted by Michael on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:25 am

    kreem - first thing is to be really clear about the time-frame of your portfolio investments, and not let trading considerations creep over into longer-term investments.  Bottom line is, oil will correct at some point but within a year or 18 months it will most likely be 200/barrel.  Gold and gold stocks may correct but sometime around when oil is 200, gold will be 1600 . . . Agricultural is correcting right now, but food costs are only going to go higher, not lower. 

    Portfolio Thoughts

    Posted by rvk1958 on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:21 am

    Kreen - you really have to make your decisions based on your personal tolerance and generally that should be done ahead of the trade. If you have profits, maybe tighten up your stops. If you have losses, you have to decide where you are comfortable and what time frame you expect. The clock always comes back to 12 so it could be that today tries to whipsaw the amateurs around. JMO!

    Portfolio & 'big' picture on blog

    Posted by kreem on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:45 am

    Thanks, yes, I find it difficult to separate time frames when it looks like you guys are doing so much better just waiting and pouncing at the right time.

    I am clear on the fundamentals, but seeing lately the commodities outperforming their respective stocks (which none of my advisors seemed to to foretell), and what looked like an awesome long-short portfolio having it's profits wiped out (admittedly breaking even is probably better than most right now)  I've been transitioning back into the idea of only trading with those fundamentals in the background rather than holding long term in the same account through thick and thin. I have a lot of positions too, so the temptation to go in and trade them when I see certain ones freaking out is strong. I also toyed with the idea of getting separate accounts so I wouldn't be tempted to touch the long term stuff - 'out of sight, out of mind'!.

    What I like about this site is that Matt etc seem to hold all these perspectives very well, though the blog seems generally much more now -in-whatever-hot-stock-focussed which seems more the usual in chat rooms, regardless of whether it coincides with the tenor of the evening updates. It's good at least that he keeps us intermediate folks somewhat in the loop on the 'bigger' technical picture intraday and how that relates to the evening commentaries. For me at least it would be cool if others could participate a bit more in that too.

    All the best.

    kreem -- I have found

    Posted by Michael on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:50 am

    kreem -- I have found that I definitely need a seperate account for longer term investments.  In fasct, because of my temperment, I even need a seperate account for swing trading and one for shorter-term day trades or overnight trades.  Otherwise I second-guess my plans and mix my tinme-frames up. 

    I wouldn't make any big

    Posted by matt on 3rd of Jul 2008 at 10:18 am

    I wouldn't make any big emotional decisions today

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