Call it what you will, but the wave
from the 1040 lows we had an A wave up to 1103 and a B wave down to
1070 yesterday.
Today, I believe, was wave A
up of C. 1069.89-1087.55 was 'a', then 'b' was short down to
1081.03....the rise from there may be all of 'c' as 'c'='a'
at 1098.69, {today's high just short by .13}.
[Scottrade had the mid-day low at 1081.42???] Either way after a
brief pop in the morning, maybe an overshoot to touch 1100-1101, I
believe the MM is dropping in wave B of C.
It could also be that from 1081
area this was a solid and strong wave 5 of A up.
In
any case, almost everything is as overbought today as it was
oversold yesterday. So "maybe" just 30-60 minutes more up trade to
get completely, and totally overbought all over the place, and to
account for some follow through buying and then WHOOOSH!!!
Down!
We might expect B to retrace 50%
back to the 1085ish area but it may be shorter than normal. Must
keep that possibility in mind.
Hi! Not trying to be clever or anything, but a 'C' wave is
always a five wave affair and therefore never sports an ABC
structure. Whilst a 'C' wave is often 100% of 'A', it can also be
only .618% and occasionally 1.618%
Wave C's are always a 5 wave affair. I KNOW that, I KNEW that
but I also FORGOT that today...so busy looking for an ABC pattern
that shouldn't even be there!!
A couple ways to view the action today.
1) wave 1 up to 1087.55, wave 2 down to 1081ish, and now wave
3 up in progress, maybe even wave 3 of 3 at the end today with a
lot more upside to come.
2) that wave 'i' was up to 1078.57, then wave 'ii' down to
1072.04, wave 'iii' up to 1087.55, wave 'iv' to 1081, and this is
finishing a wave 'v' of a larger wave 1 of C, then a wave 2 down
tomorrow sometime?
And then a wave 3 up Friday/Monday, a wave 4 followed by a 5
into a Tuesday top maybe???
While scenario 2 might be a stretch, there are certain
relationships within it that I like, for example wave 'ii' was some
75.3%, just shy of .786 and then alternatively wave 'iv' was 39.5%
just over .382 the other way!
Sigh...can't believe I somehow forgot a very basic and simple EW
rule like this!
there is a third possibility that
daneric's blogpoints out that makes today move
the D wave of the wedge for wave B meaning C has yet to begin and
we would need to see a wave E down first....hmmm.
See what trouble I get into waiting for the nightly BPT
report!!
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Wave A of C up finished?
Posted by perthx on 2nd of Jun 2010 at 05:12 pm
Call it what you will, but the wave from the 1040 lows we had an A wave up to 1103 and a B wave down to 1070 yesterday.
Today, I believe, was wave A up of C. 1069.89-1087.55 was 'a', then 'b' was short down to 1081.03....the rise from there may be all of 'c' as 'c'='a' at 1098.69, {today's high just short by .13}.
[Scottrade had the mid-day low at 1081.42???] Either way after a brief pop in the morning, maybe an overshoot to touch 1100-1101, I believe the MM is dropping in wave B of C.
It could also be that from 1081 area this was a solid and strong wave 5 of A up.
In any case, almost everything is as overbought today as it was oversold yesterday. So "maybe" just 30-60 minutes more up trade to get completely, and totally overbought all over the place, and to account for some follow through buying and then WHOOOSH!!! Down!
We might expect B to retrace 50% back to the 1085ish area but it may be shorter than normal. Must keep that possibility in mind.
Wave A of C up finished?
Posted by clivew3 on 2nd of Jun 2010 at 07:06 pm
Hi! Not trying to be clever or anything, but a 'C' wave is always a five wave affair and therefore never sports an ABC structure. Whilst a 'C' wave is often 100% of 'A', it can also be only .618% and occasionally 1.618%
Yep, you're correct of course
Posted by perthx on 2nd of Jun 2010 at 09:32 pm
so busy crunching things I made a mash of this all. D'oh. Thanks.
Wave C in proper perspective
Posted by perthx on 2nd of Jun 2010 at 10:15 pm
Wave C's are always a 5 wave affair. I KNOW that, I KNEW that but I also FORGOT that today...so busy looking for an ABC pattern that shouldn't even be there!!
A couple ways to view the action today.
1) wave 1 up to 1087.55, wave 2 down to 1081ish, and now wave 3 up in progress, maybe even wave 3 of 3 at the end today with a lot more upside to come.
2) that wave 'i' was up to 1078.57, then wave 'ii' down to 1072.04, wave 'iii' up to 1087.55, wave 'iv' to 1081, and this is finishing a wave 'v' of a larger wave 1 of C, then a wave 2 down tomorrow sometime?
And then a wave 3 up Friday/Monday, a wave 4 followed by a 5 into a Tuesday top maybe???
While scenario 2 might be a stretch, there are certain relationships within it that I like, for example wave 'ii' was some 75.3%, just shy of .786 and then alternatively wave 'iv' was 39.5% just over .382 the other way!
Sigh...can't believe I somehow forgot a very basic and simple EW rule like this!
on the other hand
Posted by perthx on 3rd of Jun 2010 at 12:14 am
there is a third possibility that daneric's blogpoints out that makes today move the D wave of the wedge for wave B meaning C has yet to begin and we would need to see a wave E down first....hmmm.
See what trouble I get into waiting for the nightly BPT report!!