I am full of questions about the behavior of this indicator,
today´s sell off should have spiked it... Put/Call ratios, % of
Stks above 50DMA all pointing to an iminent bounce... but the
VIX diverging at the broken uptrend line. I think that today there
was more negative sentiment than in March lows and
the VIX remained a non event...I am about to rule the VIX out
of my equation
The double bottom in March in the SPX is interesting. Look
how the VIX was pretty chill at the first bottom then spiked high
as we approached the second bottom.
Posted by treid4dou on 2nd of Jul 2008 at 09:45 pm
A very cute and interesting perspective........congrats for the
idea.....!!!!
BTW...noticed a certain line in the sand at 26 for VIX along the
time frame of chart......
Looking at it this way it seems like we are not in for a bounce
yet. Thank you for your post it is very well ilustrated... I am
full of doubts about this elusive bounce and being wrong here can
be very -($$$$$$$$$$$$)
hornsantA bounce will come sometime, maybe the VIX needs to spike,
but a tradeable bottom will come. It will be just be a counter
trend rally in a bear market, but it will come eventually.
We are not telling anyone to go
long this market, only to raise stops on their ultra short ETF's
and not to be aggressive. Also, shorting here is not
adviseable.
Horn, best to stand out of the way IMO. I would have loved to
jump in and get some of the action this afternoon, but I am neither
quick enough nor educated enough to do something that ambitious.
Since hanging out on BPT, I have about an 80% profitable trade
percent vs well, you don;t want to know. The turn will come, save
your money so you have some for the short term upside and then even
more to short the heck out of the next leg down!
As Matt and Steve have said many times - cash is a position and
the more you have when that illusive bounce does come, the more you
can make from that point forward!
Hope you don't mind an opinion - that's all it is albeit from an
very inexperienced trader on the blog.
rvk1958-
great
response!!Cash is a position and yes it's best to stay out
of the way and not force trades. Picking bottoms is dangerous and
extremely difficult to do (unless you get an obvious capitulation
and washout day).
The oversold bear market rally that
is coming will only be a bounce in a bear market. The big money
will once again be made on the Short side after the oversold bounce
manifests itself and runs out of steam. Gold will probably also be
the place to be as well.
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VIX
Posted by hornsant on 2nd of Jul 2008 at 08:06 pm
I am full of questions about the behavior of this indicator, today´s sell off should have spiked it... Put/Call ratios, % of Stks above 50DMA all pointing to an iminent bounce... but the VIX diverging at the broken uptrend line. I think that today there was more negative sentiment than in March lows and the VIX remained a non event...I am about to rule the VIX out of my equation
VIX
Posted by lawyse on 2nd of Jul 2008 at 08:33 pm
The double bottom in March in the SPX is interesting. Look how the VIX was pretty chill at the first bottom then spiked high as we approached the second bottom.
Chart
A very cute and interesting
Posted by treid4dou on 2nd of Jul 2008 at 09:45 pm
A very cute and interesting perspective........congrats for the idea.....!!!! BTW...noticed a certain line in the sand at 26 for VIX along the time frame of chart......
vix
Posted by hornsant on 2nd of Jul 2008 at 09:11 pm
you are quite right, the one with the hammer shook the VIX. Maybe this time it will do the same... Thank you
Is the Put/Call ratio really
Posted by lawyse on 2nd of Jul 2008 at 08:21 pm
Is the Put/Call ratio really pointing to a bounce? Check out the chart with a moving average attached...
Chart
vix
Posted by hornsant on 2nd of Jul 2008 at 08:53 pm
Looking at it this way it seems like we are not in for a bounce yet. Thank you for your post it is very well ilustrated... I am full of doubts about this elusive bounce and being wrong here can be very -($$$$$$$$$$$$)
hornsant A bounce will come sometime,
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jul 2008 at 09:19 pm
hornsant A bounce will come sometime, maybe the VIX needs to spike, but a tradeable bottom will come. It will be just be a counter trend rally in a bear market, but it will come eventually.
We are not telling anyone to go long this market, only to raise stops on their ultra short ETF's and not to be aggressive. Also, shorting here is not adviseable.
VIX
Posted by rvk1958 on 2nd of Jul 2008 at 09:17 pm
Horn, best to stand out of the way IMO. I would have loved to jump in and get some of the action this afternoon, but I am neither quick enough nor educated enough to do something that ambitious. Since hanging out on BPT, I have about an 80% profitable trade percent vs well, you don;t want to know. The turn will come, save your money so you have some for the short term upside and then even more to short the heck out of the next leg down!
As Matt and Steve have said many times - cash is a position and the more you have when that illusive bounce does come, the more you can make from that point forward!
Hope you don't mind an opinion - that's all it is albeit from an very inexperienced trader on the blog.
rvk1958 - great response!!Cash is a position
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jul 2008 at 09:25 pm
rvk1958 - great response!!Cash is a position and yes it's best to stay out of the way and not force trades. Picking bottoms is dangerous and extremely difficult to do (unless you get an obvious capitulation and washout day).
The oversold bear market rally that is coming will only be a bounce in a bear market. The big money will once again be made on the Short side after the oversold bounce manifests itself and runs out of steam. Gold will probably also be the place to be as well.