Some other things I see at "extremes" in the market is around
the Euro which as we have seen is in semi freefall. Non Commercial
shorts were at pretty high levels last week and extremes so i would
not at all be suprised to see the Euro bounce next week coupled
with an Equities rally and pullback in safehaven currencies of Gold
& Silver
I think medium/longer term we have some big structural
issues here in Europe but no point looking too much in detail.
History tells me that mean reversion or semi mean reversion
happens in most bombed out instruments at some stage
(excluding specific equity related issues).
We are in a time frame Mid May where we often have peaks in
metals. So with extreme positive sentiment [ per Steve ] and very
overbought we are at or near a Short term TOP.
Daneric in his posts about a likely market fall and how it could
unfold often says that if P3 decline arrives then don't be
surprised if markets stay over sold and don't bounce.The reason is
simple.P3 is really PONZI recognition stage and simply recognized
ponzis don't bounce..they just get more and more oversold and
collapse.
I get DE's thought pattern on this.The point is once the system
gets recognized as a failure the bounces won't exist...forget your
fibonacci retracements!!..in reverse I am wondering if PM's can
stay extremely overbought/high bullish readings during this
ponzi unravelling.Lets remember no govt has any plan to do the
right thing here.So overbought readings in all timeframes can stay
high as will bullish sentiment readings BUT price will just grind
higher.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Silver
Posted by steve on 14th of May 2010 at 08:12 pm
Good point on Silver here
Posted by vimal on 15th of May 2010 at 06:39 pm
Good point on Silver here Steve
Some other things I see at "extremes" in the market is around the Euro which as we have seen is in semi freefall. Non Commercial shorts were at pretty high levels last week and extremes so i would not at all be suprised to see the Euro bounce next week coupled with an Equities rally and pullback in safehaven currencies of Gold & Silver
I think medium/longer term we have some big structural issues here in Europe but no point looking too much in detail. History tells me that mean reversion or semi mean reversion happens in most bombed out instruments at some stage (excluding specific equity related issues).
Silver
Posted by rbreese on 15th of May 2010 at 07:50 pm
We are in a time frame Mid May where we often have peaks in metals. So with extreme positive sentiment [ per Steve ] and very overbought we are at or near a Short term TOP.
Silver
Posted by hurricanemalta on 14th of May 2010 at 10:53 pm
Daneric in his posts about a likely market fall and how it could unfold often says that if P3 decline arrives then don't be surprised if markets stay over sold and don't bounce.The reason is simple.P3 is really PONZI recognition stage and simply recognized ponzis don't bounce..they just get more and more oversold and collapse.
I get DE's thought pattern on this.The point is once the system gets recognized as a failure the bounces won't exist...forget your fibonacci retracements!!..in reverse I am wondering if PM's can stay extremely overbought/high bullish readings during this ponzi unravelling.Lets remember no govt has any plan to do the right thing here.So overbought readings in all timeframes can stay high as will bullish sentiment readings BUT price will just grind higher.