Junkie - commercial traders are considered the BIG PLAYERS and thus the SMART MONEY that moves markets.  Again, the key to analyzing the COT data is big changes in the commercials not simply their positions (only big changes).  Back in early February, I posted that the commercials had significantly increased their long positions which supported the market advance.  They have now been curtailing their longs and moved to a net short position (marginal change) which also supports our stance of being somewhat cautious at this time.  One can still play valid setups but just do so prudently.