Wave 5's can be truncated, or they can extend, so it's tough to say exactly, but if I had to guess, I would say up 5-10%....closer to 5% in my view, which would correspond to SPX topping in the 1230 range....occurring in 1-2 trading weeks, and it looks to form a divergent high

jmho!

Looks like the NYA is headed up for a wave 5 high....I suspect the other indices will follow

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p44060411098&r=1451

Thanks for the video Matt....I am still holding TZA from the initial breakout on the 89 stochastics.

I realize no one knows which way this will break, so good time to be cautious.  That said, on balance, do you think this is a 50/50 deal, or with the NYSI summation chart showing a possible downside break, do you favor break down?.......or with the large speculators liquidating their shorts by a record amount, do you lean toward the market keeping trend and breaking to the upside?

What is the significance, if any, of the large decline in open interest?  All groups reduced positions significantly...

I have been sitting on TZA since I bought on the last break over 20 on the 89 stochastics......bummer.  Today looked good at the end.....

Each time the RUT tops, there is a little ascending triangle which breaks to the downside (today, tomorrow), followed by a retest of the high (monday?), then a breakdown in the intermediate range.....

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15320878457

My plan is to see how high TZA goes tomorrow.....I may sell if I can for a profit on a spike, and reenter on late Monday or Tuesday, if the general market pulls back after a retest

great, thanks

Matt, is your suggested stop the hashed blue line? for TZA?

CLNE had a nice breakout as you suggested.....I am curious how you feel about it now.  It pulled back some from the breakout, but still made a new alltime high

McHugh is right twice a day, like a clock......one concern I have is there is still alot of bearish crashish sentiment out there.....crashes dont happen when everyone is looking for one.

The market could grind higher until bears capitulate into late spring early summer.....piling frustration upon frustration.

That said, the moon cycle is changing this weekend, and options expiration happens in two weeks, the next moon cycle

fwiw, I can remember during the cyclical rally from 2003-2007 that the market continually broke out of ascending wedges to the upside, confounding myself & EW counts such as these, despite being overbought, kind of like what the RUT has done lately....

McHugh kept getting burned during that time frame