I want to comment on some members observations of posts on the
blog. We have many experienced traders here who choose to
take their own positions. There are always two sides to a
market and it's a personal choice as to how one wants to play the
market. One can play either side as long as they have a plan with
objective risk management in place. It is there choice how to
play the market and that's perfectly acceptable.
With that said, I do not choose to play against the trend (until
bullish symmetry) is broken at least on the short term charts.
Occasionally, I will take a trade short against the trend (as
a hedge or pure speculation) but that is something that involves
greater risk since it's against the trend. Currently, the
market is UPTRENDING and while it's overbought it still remains in
an uptrend. It could pullback at any time but until it breaks
the uptrend and breaks bullish symmetry on the longer charts I will
primarily focus on longs. Hope this helps to clarify.
My advice is to focus on your objectives and beliefs and trade
accordingly (it's tough enough to trade without worrying about what
others are doing). We believe it's best to concentrate on the
trend and focus on trades on that direction. Thus, we will
certainly miss tops and bottoms but will succeed in catching the
meat of any sustained moves.
I have been reading comments for the last 1 month and everybody
talks about market turning any day and it kept on going up.
The top will be rounded one like jan. and everyday it is making new
highs. i lost shorting amzn. I bought and lost on
vxx. Until you get a definite sell signal it is very
dangerous to go against trend. There are many stocks with
high short interest. The market might make all shorts
to cover before it turns around. It might go upto 1180 as the
reverse head and shoulders have shown before any meaningful
correction.
Posted by Palladin on 17th of Mar 2010 at 12:26 pm
"My advice is to focus on your objectives and beliefs and trade
accordingly "
Steve, you have to realize that if people operated
according to your advice stated in the line above, they would not
be members of BPT or any other advisory for that matter. Many are
looking for more specific guidance, as I was earlier in my trading
efforts. Now I have cancelled most of my subs and use your service
for chart analysis and make my own decisions for better or worse,
but I believe a lot of your subscriber base is looking for
more assertive guidance.
Posted by epmaruggi on 17th of Mar 2010 at 08:19 pm
...about "scaling in" to a position before it triggers on the
watchlist. I'll consider that kind of advice more carefully next
time and so should everyone else. Best to learn from our mistakes
to keep it from happening again.
I understand your statement Palladin but again we cannot force
our opinions on members. My guidance is as I stated below, I
want to focus on being positioned WITH THE PREVAILING TREND.
I do not want to be playing against the trend except to hedge
or scalp trades. However, this is not to imply that I feel
comfortable adding many new positions at this time since the market
is quite extended. Again, those are personal decisions (my
objectives do not mirror all other members). In summary, it's
my personal believe (assertive) that one is much better off trading
with the trend versus fighting the trend (trying to pick tops).
To be clear, I'm primarily focusing on LONGS until the trend
reverses.
One thing that would be of great use to all members would be a
section where the intermediate term trend is clearly noted, say by
"bullish," "bearish," or "neutral." That way, a glance would
suffice for members to know what Steve and Matt's sense of the
direction of the market is, and when it changes.
Algyros - this already exits here, I have trending indicators
that are fairly good at this: NYSI indicators, NASI,
BPCOMPQs, etc. Use the URL from my Sticky post, I have all
the trending indicators
NYSI with 5/3 stochastics overlay is fairly good at the
intermediate trend
I prefer to use the terms: uptrend and downtrend versus bullish
or bearish which are quite subjective. I have been stating
the trend every night on the recaps and will announce when it
changes. It will change when the market begins to make lower
highs AND lower lows. Again, see last nights recap for
clarity.
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Comment
Posted by steve on 17th of Mar 2010 at 12:04 pm
I want to comment on some members observations of posts on the blog. We have many experienced traders here who choose to take their own positions. There are always two sides to a market and it's a personal choice as to how one wants to play the market. One can play either side as long as they have a plan with objective risk management in place. It is there choice how to play the market and that's perfectly acceptable.
With that said, I do not choose to play against the trend (until bullish symmetry) is broken at least on the short term charts. Occasionally, I will take a trade short against the trend (as a hedge or pure speculation) but that is something that involves greater risk since it's against the trend. Currently, the market is UPTRENDING and while it's overbought it still remains in an uptrend. It could pullback at any time but until it breaks the uptrend and breaks bullish symmetry on the longer charts I will primarily focus on longs. Hope this helps to clarify.
My advice is to focus on your objectives and beliefs and trade accordingly (it's tough enough to trade without worrying about what others are doing). We believe it's best to concentrate on the trend and focus on trades on that direction. Thus, we will certainly miss tops and bottoms but will succeed in catching the meat of any sustained moves.
market trend
Posted by sam123 on 17th of Mar 2010 at 12:41 pm
I have been reading comments for the last 1 month and everybody talks about market turning any day and it kept on going up. The top will be rounded one like jan. and everyday it is making new highs. i lost shorting amzn. I bought and lost on vxx. Until you get a definite sell signal it is very dangerous to go against trend. There are many stocks with high short interest. The market might make all shorts to cover before it turns around. It might go upto 1180 as the reverse head and shoulders have shown before any meaningful correction.
Essentially, readers are getting short
Posted by 55555 on 17th of Mar 2010 at 05:13 pm
Essentially, readers are getting short because this is what they interpret from the newsletter IMO. But are they are misinterpreting?
"My advice is to focus
Posted by Palladin on 17th of Mar 2010 at 12:26 pm
"My advice is to focus on your objectives and beliefs and trade accordingly "
Steve, you have to realize that if people operated according to your advice stated in the line above, they would not be members of BPT or any other advisory for that matter. Many are looking for more specific guidance, as I was earlier in my trading efforts. Now I have cancelled most of my subs and use your service for chart analysis and make my own decisions for better or worse, but I believe a lot of your subscriber base is looking for more assertive guidance.
I learned my lesson...
Posted by epmaruggi on 17th of Mar 2010 at 08:19 pm
...about "scaling in" to a position before it triggers on the watchlist. I'll consider that kind of advice more carefully next time and so should everyone else. Best to learn from our mistakes to keep it from happening again.
I understand your statement Palladin
Posted by steve on 17th of Mar 2010 at 12:36 pm
I understand your statement Palladin but again we cannot force our opinions on members. My guidance is as I stated below, I want to focus on being positioned WITH THE PREVAILING TREND. I do not want to be playing against the trend except to hedge or scalp trades. However, this is not to imply that I feel comfortable adding many new positions at this time since the market is quite extended. Again, those are personal decisions (my objectives do not mirror all other members). In summary, it's my personal believe (assertive) that one is much better off trading with the trend versus fighting the trend (trying to pick tops). To be clear, I'm primarily focusing on LONGS until the trend reverses.
One thing that would be
Posted by algyros on 17th of Mar 2010 at 12:35 pm
One thing that would be of great use to all members would be a section where the intermediate term trend is clearly noted, say by "bullish," "bearish," or "neutral." That way, a glance would suffice for members to know what Steve and Matt's sense of the direction of the market is, and when it changes.
Algyros - this already exits
Posted by matt on 17th of Mar 2010 at 10:16 pm
Algyros - this already exits here, I have trending indicators that are fairly good at this: NYSI indicators, NASI, BPCOMPQs, etc. Use the URL from my Sticky post, I have all the trending indicators
NYSI with 5/3 stochastics overlay is fairly good at the intermediate trend
NYSI cumulative is great for longer term etc
http://breakpointtrades.com/controls/preview.php?la_id=878
see the section that is entitled:
NYSI Indicators
Useful for longer term signals and useful for help with managing 401Ks
I prefer to use the
Posted by steve on 17th of Mar 2010 at 12:44 pm
I prefer to use the terms: uptrend and downtrend versus bullish or bearish which are quite subjective. I have been stating the trend every night on the recaps and will announce when it changes. It will change when the market begins to make lower highs AND lower lows. Again, see last nights recap for clarity.