Posted by racerick on 16th of Mar 2010 at 06:17 pm
Guys, some gloom and frustration in here tonight. I know a
lot of us have been stopped out on some 'experimental trades' past
week and some are still holding. I've been doing this for 30 years
and one thing I've learned is that my own feelings and those of
this room are a micronism of traders all over the world. So if you
feel like throwing in the towel just remember what usually happens
right after you do. lol
2) As traders, we often get caught up in looking at 5min, 15min,
60min charts or whatever. Stand back and look at the dailies more
often. We're in a beautiful uptrend here and I know I've been
fighting it as much as anyone here in the past week. As traders, we
feel like we can't jump on a trend unless we catch it near the
bottom, because then we're chasing. We're always looking to catch
the next turn. Sometimes it's hard to see the forest for the
trees.
3) Major turns in the market aren't usually made in the market
in the matter of a few hours, so watching longer term charts
occasionally not going to kill you. Put some trendlines on the
dailiies and weeklies, for that matter, not just the 15min. Know it
would have saved me from some bad trades lately not to mention lost
profits from selling too early. Being nimble in the market can be
good at times, but can definitely bite you too. I've lost more
money over the years by being early than I have by being late.
4) Steve and Matt have done a good job of reiterating nearly
every night that we're in an up trend and though all of us have
been looking for potential turning points, including them, just
remember we're in unprecedented times here, never seen to this
extent in history, with the Fed and Treasury determined to
stave off further recession by printing trillions of dollars and
creating money out of thin air. So who knows how much further and
longer this rally can go. Don't get hung up on decling volumes,
this whole move up since March, over 4000 pts on the DJI, has been
on lower volume. We could easily keep going from here.
And if all else fails just remember Dennis Gartman's saying'
that if the squiggly line is going from the lower left to the top
right of your chart, you need to be long.
I wish to state two points here, that might or might not of help
to any bear here.
1. This market hits the targets it is supposed to hit. The AB=CD
target is 1165, and it will be hit, in my best judgment.
2. After 1150 has taken, the next target is 1225 for the overall
top.
If you can, try to stay aside and let the train arrive where
it's supposed to arrive. The first 1/8 and the last 1/8 are the
most expensive eighth in trading.
1225 is the next big number, a Fib. retracement after 1115
(61.8%, I think). 1150 was the MA(20) on the monthly chart, a
border line between the bull and bear markets. 'Think big' is the
motto of this market, in my twisted humor. If it's not obvious to
everyone, it's not going to work (for the bears).
Why the overall top? Two factors: the "thin" zone ends
approximately there (1200, if I recall from Matt & Steve's
reports last fall), and "sell in May and go away" has not been
repelled yet, when there is something to sell. There was little or
none last year.
Lastly, the professionals will need time to distribute their
longs near the top, that's why I would expect a long rectangle or
something of this sort. Something like in Dec.-January 2009. This
market is a chess game, and those who practise analysis -- dividing
the whole into parts to make sense of it, ala science -- will never
get it.
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Bears Flattened by Runaway Train
Posted by racerick on 16th of Mar 2010 at 06:17 pm
Guys, some gloom and frustration in here tonight. I know a lot of us have been stopped out on some 'experimental trades' past week and some are still holding. I've been doing this for 30 years and one thing I've learned is that my own feelings and those of this room are a micronism of traders all over the world. So if you feel like throwing in the towel just remember what usually happens right after you do. lol
2) As traders, we often get caught up in looking at 5min, 15min, 60min charts or whatever. Stand back and look at the dailies more often. We're in a beautiful uptrend here and I know I've been fighting it as much as anyone here in the past week. As traders, we feel like we can't jump on a trend unless we catch it near the bottom, because then we're chasing. We're always looking to catch the next turn. Sometimes it's hard to see the forest for the trees.
3) Major turns in the market aren't usually made in the market in the matter of a few hours, so watching longer term charts occasionally not going to kill you. Put some trendlines on the dailiies and weeklies, for that matter, not just the 15min. Know it would have saved me from some bad trades lately not to mention lost profits from selling too early. Being nimble in the market can be good at times, but can definitely bite you too. I've lost more money over the years by being early than I have by being late.
4) Steve and Matt have done a good job of reiterating nearly every night that we're in an up trend and though all of us have been looking for potential turning points, including them, just remember we're in unprecedented times here, never seen to this extent in history, with the Fed and Treasury determined to stave off further recession by printing trillions of dollars and creating money out of thin air. So who knows how much further and longer this rally can go. Don't get hung up on decling volumes, this whole move up since March, over 4000 pts on the DJI, has been on lower volume. We could easily keep going from here.
And if all else fails just remember Dennis Gartman's saying' that if the squiggly line is going from the lower left to the top right of your chart, you need to be long.
Hang in there
I wish to state two
Posted by junkie on 16th of Mar 2010 at 06:32 pm
I wish to state two points here, that might or might not of help to any bear here.
1. This market hits the targets it is supposed to hit. The AB=CD target is 1165, and it will be hit, in my best judgment.
2. After 1150 has taken, the next target is 1225 for the overall top.
If you can, try to stay aside and let the train arrive where it's supposed to arrive. The first 1/8 and the last 1/8 are the most expensive eighth in trading.
I hope this helps someone.
Junkie, Thanks for the thoughts and
Posted by kalinm on 16th of Mar 2010 at 07:31 pm
Junkie,
Thanks for the thoughts and advice. Where do you get 1225 from and why do you think that would be an overall top?
1225 is the next big
Posted by junkie on 16th of Mar 2010 at 07:57 pm
1225 is the next big number, a Fib. retracement after 1115 (61.8%, I think). 1150 was the MA(20) on the monthly chart, a border line between the bull and bear markets. 'Think big' is the motto of this market, in my twisted humor. If it's not obvious to everyone, it's not going to work (for the bears).
Why the overall top? Two factors: the "thin" zone ends approximately there (1200, if I recall from Matt & Steve's reports last fall), and "sell in May and go away" has not been repelled yet, when there is something to sell. There was little or none last year.
Lastly, the professionals will need time to distribute their longs near the top, that's why I would expect a long rectangle or something of this sort. Something like in Dec.-January 2009. This market is a chess game, and those who practise analysis -- dividing the whole into parts to make sense of it, ala science -- will never get it.