I am with you on that. Commodities have long bull and bear
cycles. If you get in during the first phase you can ride it
out for years, it becomes a boring trade which are the
best.
Gold and Silver paper markets are being suppressed and
accumulated. You cannot find any physical gold or
silver out there unless you pay 30-40% over spot price. The
gig is going to be up soon.
SYK - short idea. There Q2 is probably going to
miss. There bread and butter is implants that are considered
"elective surgery". Every hospital has been focused on
Covid-19 patients. Elective surgeries will start to come back
online but I think they are going to take a hit this quarter.
The daily chart looks like a rounded top forming. I am
looking for a break of $180 to see if the set up for
shorting.
I think your analysis is pretty accurate. The Fed is not
going to let the markets get to " an new low". Some big time
names like Jeffery Gundlach who I have the highest regard for, is
heavily short on the market and some other big names. I
think we sell off a bit into next week but not to new lows.
There is no more price discovery with the FED's actions. They
will pump millions every day as they have been doing, perhaps the
people will get that purposed $10K a person. J Powell said
that rates will hold steady to 2024 in his last statement.
Sum it all up = inflation to a theater near you once the
economy opens up.
EMTY - Have to love the ETF symbol (Proshares decline of the
Retail Store). Not sure how many box stores will be left
standing after all this but I am sure some will fall. The
trend has been online retail and now more than ever. That
being said, not a lot of volume in this yet so not a buyer, but
keep on my radar.
An example I will give you. I bought SLV and SLV call
options (JAN 2021) yesterday. i like SLV long term but gold
and silver have a lot of volatility. This am SLV was not
acting well so I dumped it and bought DSLV but kept my SLV call
because it goes out to 2021. Once SLV bottoms out, I will
sell DSLV (hopefully capture a small gain instead of a loss) and
keep the Call. Or I could have bought PUTS going out to June
and kept both SLV ETF and CALL positions but I decided to
keep the Call option and just play the ETF side.
I dont know enough about delta and gamma to give a good answer.
When $VIX is high, premiums are high. I look for just
a day or couple of day holds. Unless you buy months out at
the money but then you are holding a premium for a while and in
this back drop I am not doing that.
That's a tough call. Most of Q1 happened before the
huge shut down. The Daily chart looks like a rising wedge
(these tend to be bearish). The buying volume has waned a
lot the last couple of days. I think you have the right
strategy in place. I bought cheap puts the day before there
last earnings (they blow it out) and got hammered for about a week
but then Covid-19 struck and I made some money but only because I
bought the puts so cheap that I was willing to lose all the value
on it. I was lucky. That being said, I do not know if
analysts have dropped a lot on their forecast. They are def
going to take a hit with sales on iphones and those types of items.
They may pick up business on the Apple TV side. Its a
hard call.
Closed the IWM puts and SPY puts this am. Looking for
a bounce into tomorrow especially if Amazon blows out
earnings after the bell - probably get a bullish bias tomorrow.
As of today, there have been 3,190,743 confirmed cases of
Covid-19. 227,368 deaths worldwide. 972,124 recovered.
Mortality rate is 0.07%. The standard FLU mortality
rate is 0.1%. Do we shut down an entire nation for the FLU?
I know this is a novel virus but we now have real data
(facts). With these facts we should now realize that the
majority of people (96%) will survive Covid-19. The remaining
4%, 90% of those have chronic disease and co-morbidities.
Now if we really want to help prevent people from dying from
Covid-19, we should start at diet, exercise and regular health
check ups by a physician, PA or NPR. My personal
observation is that i see people loading up on potato chips, candy,
soda and other. One in 4 dollars in healthcare expenditures
go towards treating diabetic patients today and that # is on the
rise. We need to take a hard look at the health of the
majority of the population in this country and it is not good.
Children with type 2 diabetes is skyrocketing in the US.
It is a standard now to run a HgbA1c on a child now.
We are a "supersize" nation and now with Covid-19 we are seeing the
real impact of that. Now imagine what the mortality rate
would be if we were a more healthier nation? 2.7 million
Americans die a year from everything but Covid-19. So while
we the nation hunkers down in fear from Covid-19, we should fear
our cardiac risk more.
Bitcoin. Maybe someone here can educate me.
Personally I thought it was garbage and has no inherit value
( nothing tangible). The USD is tied to oil (Petrodollars).
Gold and Silver are hedges against inflation and mistrust of
the Government. Bitcoin? From a traders POV it looks
very bullish.
My regret is not buying more gold, silver and bitcoin today.
The velocity of money has not taken effect yet because
few people are actually working today, and prices are going up.
Just wait until the economy does get going and money starts
to flow again. Inflation is going to rip. But
there is tomorrow, alas:)
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Soon enough. I am ready.
SLV - SPY Ratio Chart {Monthly Close}. This chart is ...
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 08:33 pm
Soon enough. I am ready. Thanks for the chart.
I was given as a
GOLD {Monthly Close}. {Rounded Bottom} or {Cup} with a {Wave ...
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 07:56 pm
I was given as a gift many years ago a Gold Rolex. I have worn it maybe 4 or 5 times. I keep it in a safe next to my dogs bed.
I am with you on
And i am in DBA and CANE as well as ...
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 07:54 pm
I am with you on that. Commodities have long bull and bear cycles. If you get in during the first phase you can ride it out for years, it becomes a boring trade which are the best.
Gold and Silver paper markets
GOLD {Monthly Close}. {Rounded Bottom} or {Cup} with a {Wave ...
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 07:52 pm
Gold and Silver paper markets are being suppressed and accumulated. You cannot find any physical gold or silver out there unless you pay 30-40% over spot price. The gig is going to be up soon.
SYK - short idea. There
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 07:44 pm
SYK - short idea. There Q2 is probably going to miss. There bread and butter is implants that are considered "elective surgery". Every hospital has been focused on Covid-19 patients. Elective surgeries will start to come back online but I think they are going to take a hit this quarter. The daily chart looks like a rounded top forming. I am looking for a break of $180 to see if the set up for shorting.
I think your analysis is
GOLD {Monthly Close}. {Rounded Bottom} or {Cup} with a {Wave ...
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 07:39 pm
I think your analysis is pretty accurate. The Fed is not going to let the markets get to " an new low". Some big time names like Jeffery Gundlach who I have the highest regard for, is heavily short on the market and some other big names. I think we sell off a bit into next week but not to new lows. There is no more price discovery with the FED's actions. They will pump millions every day as they have been doing, perhaps the people will get that purposed $10K a person. J Powell said that rates will hold steady to 2024 in his last statement. Sum it all up = inflation to a theater near you once the economy opens up.
No, I am not going
EMTY - Have to love the ETF symbol (Proshares decline ...
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 06:35 pm
No, I am not going to touch it. Thanks for digging into it.
EMTY - Have to love
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 04:50 pm
EMTY - Have to love the ETF symbol (Proshares decline of the Retail Store). Not sure how many box stores will be left standing after all this but I am sure some will fall. The trend has been online retail and now more than ever. That being said, not a lot of volume in this yet so not a buyer, but keep on my radar.
Man down.
AMZN taking it on the chin after earnings
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 04:17 pm
Man down.
SPY Weekly Call ATM 5/4.
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 03:52 pm
SPY Weekly Call ATM 5/4.
Any thoughts on GE?
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 02:51 pm
Any thoughts on GE?
QDEL short@$139
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 02:38 pm
QDEL short@$139
An example I will give
Closed the IWM puts and SPY puts this am. ...
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 02:08 pm
An example I will give you. I bought SLV and SLV call options (JAN 2021) yesterday. i like SLV long term but gold and silver have a lot of volatility. This am SLV was not acting well so I dumped it and bought DSLV but kept my SLV call because it goes out to 2021. Once SLV bottoms out, I will sell DSLV (hopefully capture a small gain instead of a loss) and keep the Call. Or I could have bought PUTS going out to June and kept both SLV ETF and CALL positions but I decided to keep the Call option and just play the ETF side.
I dont know enough about
Closed the IWM puts and SPY puts this am. ...
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 02:03 pm
I dont know enough about delta and gamma to give a good answer. When $VIX is high, premiums are high. I look for just a day or couple of day holds. Unless you buy months out at the money but then you are holding a premium for a while and in this back drop I am not doing that.
That's a tough call.
Closed the IWM puts and SPY puts this am. ...
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 01:37 pm
That's a tough call. Most of Q1 happened before the huge shut down. The Daily chart looks like a rising wedge (these tend to be bearish). The buying volume has waned a lot the last couple of days. I think you have the right strategy in place. I bought cheap puts the day before there last earnings (they blow it out) and got hammered for about a week but then Covid-19 struck and I made some money but only because I bought the puts so cheap that I was willing to lose all the value on it. I was lucky. That being said, I do not know if analysts have dropped a lot on their forecast. They are def going to take a hit with sales on iphones and those types of items. They may pick up business on the Apple TV side. Its a hard call.
Closed the IWM puts and
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 01:24 pm
Closed the IWM puts and SPY puts this am. Looking for a bounce into tomorrow especially if Amazon blows out earnings after the bell - probably get a bullish bias tomorrow.
Bought some 'CANE" yesterday. Seems
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 01:23 pm
Bought some 'CANE" yesterday. Seems to working out today.
As of today, there have
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 01:46 am
As of today, there have been 3,190,743 confirmed cases of Covid-19. 227,368 deaths worldwide. 972,124 recovered. Mortality rate is 0.07%. The standard FLU mortality rate is 0.1%. Do we shut down an entire nation for the FLU? I know this is a novel virus but we now have real data (facts). With these facts we should now realize that the majority of people (96%) will survive Covid-19. The remaining 4%, 90% of those have chronic disease and co-morbidities. Now if we really want to help prevent people from dying from Covid-19, we should start at diet, exercise and regular health check ups by a physician, PA or NPR. My personal observation is that i see people loading up on potato chips, candy, soda and other. One in 4 dollars in healthcare expenditures go towards treating diabetic patients today and that # is on the rise. We need to take a hard look at the health of the majority of the population in this country and it is not good. Children with type 2 diabetes is skyrocketing in the US. It is a standard now to run a HgbA1c on a child now. We are a "supersize" nation and now with Covid-19 we are seeing the real impact of that. Now imagine what the mortality rate would be if we were a more healthier nation? 2.7 million Americans die a year from everything but Covid-19. So while we the nation hunkers down in fear from Covid-19, we should fear our cardiac risk more.
Bitcoin. Maybe someone here can
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 01:11 am
Bitcoin. Maybe someone here can educate me. Personally I thought it was garbage and has no inherit value ( nothing tangible). The USD is tied to oil (Petrodollars). Gold and Silver are hedges against inflation and mistrust of the Government. Bitcoin? From a traders POV it looks very bullish.
My regret is not buying
Posted by ssaffer on 30th of Apr 2020 at 01:05 am
My regret is not buying more gold, silver and bitcoin today. The velocity of money has not taken effect yet because few people are actually working today, and prices are going up. Just wait until the economy does get going and money starts to flow again. Inflation is going to rip. But there is tomorrow, alas:)