is to wait and see how the final 30 minutes look. Some of my
best manual trades have been purchases made in the last few minutes
on days where the stock was puked out. I tried that yesterday
and didn't get it, so passed. Of course it would have been
better to have take the trade and sold today but that's OK.
I'm waiting on the set up I want. I still think a strong
+1% finish is highly possible today. Lots of strength.
So 3 hours of chopping around this morning is going to work off
yesterday's over bought condition? My guess is, money will
want to buy IBM and GOOD ahead of earnings tonight. Those 2
NEVER miss. Hold your nose, we may go up 1% again this
afternoon.
I am temporarily suffering from "deer in the headlights
syndrome". I was successfully short through most of the
recent downturn and then went flat right before this week's huge up
action so I just missed getting my clock cleaned. So I'm
just watching. One thing I've learned doing this 30 years,
when you don't feel you have the edge, it's OK to just watch.
Glad to see the SRS trade (long) appears to be working for those
that took it.
I absolutely agree. There are always opportunities to go
counter-trend especially for sophisticated traders like you.
Most are not as good as you (NO sarcasm meant) so most aren't going
to do well going counter-trend. And Matt made it VERY clear
this was a counter-trend short term call.
Like most here, I am very negative on Commercial RE (as Dimon
is). I'm just concerned those legitimate issues will be
trumped short term by the masses wanting to buy GOOG this
afternoon and blasting the market up yet again.
Yesterday the IYR underperformed the overall market, just like
what is happening now. As the day wore on the power of the
market eventually pulled IYR up and I think IYR actually
outperformed the market (which crushes SRS).
I think we're going to see a repeat today. Yesterday I
passed on going long SRS late in the day even though my indicator
said to go long (IYR hit the 50 day which is where I normally would
have bought SRS).
This market is just too damn strong. I don't think you can
short ANYTHING. Good luck to those that try, and I mean
that. But buying SRS HERE (19.41 as I write this) just
feels like stepping in front of a train.
apologize for the length but its subscription only (IBD) so I
couldn't just post a link.///
It’s Not An
Option
Congress: It
didn’t take long to run into an “uh-oh” moment when reading the
House’s “health care for all Americans” bill. Right there on Page
16 is a provision making individual private medical insurance
illegal.
When we first saw the paragraph Tuesday, just after the
1,018-page document was released, we thought we surely must be
misreading it. So we sought help from the House Ways and Means
Committee.
It turns out we were right: The provision would indeed
outlaw individual private coverage. Under the Orwellian header of
“Protecting The Choice To Keep Current Coverage,” the “Limitation
On New Enrollment” section of the bill clearly states:
“Except as provided in this paragraph, the individual health
insurance issuer offering such coverage does not enroll any
individual in such coverage if the first effective date of coverage
is on or after the first day” of the year the legislation becomes
law.
So we can all keep our coverage, just as promised — with, of
course, exceptions: Those who currently have private individual
coverage won’t be able to change it. Nor will those who leave a
company to work for themselves be free to buy individual plans from
private carriers.
From the beginning, opponents of the public option plan have
warned that if the government gets into the business of offering
subsidized health insurance coverage, the private insurance market
will wither. Drawn by a public option that will be 30% to 40%
cheaper than their current premiums because taxpayers will be
funding it, employers will gladly scrap their private plans and go
with Washington’s coverage.
The nonpartisan Lewin Group estimated in April that 120
million or more Americans could lose their group coverage at work
and end up in such a program. That would leave private carriers
with 50 million or fewer customers. This could cause the market to,
as Lewin Vice President John Sheils put it, “fizzle out
altogether.”
What wasn’t known until now is that the bill itself will
kill the market for private individual coverage by not letting any
new policies be written after the public option becomes law.
The legislation is also likely to finish off health savings
accounts, a goal that Democrats have had for years. They want to
crush that alternative because nothing gives individuals more
control over their medical care, and the government less, than
HSAs.
With HSAs out of the way, a key obstacle to the left’s
expansion of the welfare state will be removed.
The public option won’t be an option for many, but rather a
mandate for buying government care. A free people should be
outraged at this advance of soft tyranny.
Washington does not have the constitutional or moral
authority to outlaw private markets in which parties voluntarily
participate. It shouldn’t be killing business opportunities, or
limiting choices, or legislating major changes in Americans’
lives.
It took just 16 pages of reading to find this naked attempt
by the political powers to increase their reach. It’s scary to
think how many more breaches of liberty we’ll come across in the
final 1,002.
is one of the best services/indicators I've seen over the
years. I would sub to him, but he gives enough free there's
no need.
I might finally buy some SRS upon the release of the Fed
minutes. I think we might get a final (for the day) emotional
push up at the release, then perhaps some weakness balance of the
day.
You guys probably know this, but if you want a peak of what's
actually in the SRS (since its 2x inverse IYR), go to the Yahoo
profile of IYR and click on HOLDINGS, then GET QUOTES to see what
the top 10 issues are doing.
True Technicians won't care about it, but I'm a hybrid so I find
it informative.
Yes, the IYR is significantly underperforming the market today
because an uptick in Tech sales and associated positives really
doesn't help the Commercial Real Estate situation that much.
When making SRS decisions from the charts, I like to look at the
chart of the IYR. In recent weeks, the IYR was turned away
from its 20 day but today it looks like it might have clearly
broken above that resistance and is headed to its 50 day
(32.71). If I do anything with SRS, I'll probably wait for
the IYR to hit the 50 day and anticipate a failure there, then buy
SRS.
Waiting on IYR 32.71 probably equates to SRS at 18 handle.
I probably won't get the chance to buy it there, but for now I want
to take the conservative approach. If I miss it I miss
it.
I assume that if we close at or lower than these levels we get
the revised Count which takes the S&P up to the 1000-1050 level
WITHOUT first going down to the 810ish level.
If I understand correctly, the Big Picture hasn't changed, its
just that now we don't go down as much before going up.
This whole situation pisses me off as much as the rest of you,
but going Short here just feels like trying to impose your will on
the market. It sucks, but the manipulation machine is in
overdrive and looks to be working for now.
We're probably going to have some more decent Tech earnings and
I think JPM will have great earnings.
http://www.centralfund.com/Nav%20Form.htm CEF is "safer"
than GLD because they actually have the gold in vaults but PLEASE
look at the premium to asset value you are now paying, this is from
their website ....11.3%. Check the Yahoo message board for
background, but there have been times where when the premium gets
too high they issue additional shares to close the gap and the
stock drops a multiple of points- I've seen it happen real time and
its not pretty.
You are basically paying $1,030 per oz for gold when its $930/
oz. That's one hell of a premium for safety.
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my SRS strategy for the day
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 02:15 pm
is to wait and see how the final 30 minutes look. Some of my best manual trades have been purchases made in the last few minutes on days where the stock was puked out. I tried that yesterday and didn't get it, so passed. Of course it would have been better to have take the trade and sold today but that's OK.
I'm waiting on the set up I want. I still think a strong +1% finish is highly possible today. Lots of strength.
Commercial Mortgage Bond Market
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 01:49 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ3FvdwhxYVI
CEO Rogers of Cypress
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 01:44 pm
On cnbc now giving hugely positive interview.
Roubini
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 01:42 pm
out supposedly saying the "worst is behind us, financial and economic" per Reuters.
wow
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 12:45 pm
So 3 hours of chopping around this morning is going to work off yesterday's over bought condition? My guess is, money will want to buy IBM and GOOD ahead of earnings tonight. Those 2 NEVER miss. Hold your nose, we may go up 1% again this afternoon.
rp
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 11:34 am
I am temporarily suffering from "deer in the headlights syndrome". I was successfully short through most of the recent downturn and then went flat right before this week's huge up action so I just missed getting my clock cleaned. So I'm just watching. One thing I've learned doing this 30 years, when you don't feel you have the edge, it's OK to just watch.
Glad to see the SRS trade (long) appears to be working for those that took it.
rp
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 11:16 am
rp,
I absolutely agree. There are always opportunities to go counter-trend especially for sophisticated traders like you. Most are not as good as you (NO sarcasm meant) so most aren't going to do well going counter-trend. And Matt made it VERY clear this was a counter-trend short term call.
Like most here, I am very negative on Commercial RE (as Dimon is). I'm just concerned those legitimate issues will be trumped short term by the masses wanting to buy GOOG this afternoon and blasting the market up yet again.
IYR SRS
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 10:51 am
Yesterday the IYR underperformed the overall market, just like what is happening now. As the day wore on the power of the market eventually pulled IYR up and I think IYR actually outperformed the market (which crushes SRS).
I think we're going to see a repeat today. Yesterday I passed on going long SRS late in the day even though my indicator said to go long (IYR hit the 50 day which is where I normally would have bought SRS).
This market is just too damn strong. I don't think you can short ANYTHING. Good luck to those that try, and I mean that. But buying SRS HERE (19.41 as I write this) just feels like stepping in front of a train.
from RealMoney
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 08:38 am
The SP-500 and VIX have risen in tandem 26 times since August 2007, including yesterday's 3.48% VIX gain, coupled with a 2.96% SP-500 rally.
In the follow session, the SP-500 has fallen 18 times for an average loss of 1.6%.
IBD editorial
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 07:37 am
apologize for the length but its subscription only (IBD) so I couldn't just post a link.///
When we first saw the paragraph Tuesday, just after the 1,018-page document was released, we thought we surely must be misreading it. So we sought help from the House Ways and Means Committee.
It turns out we were right: The provision would indeed outlaw individual private coverage. Under the Orwellian header of “Protecting The Choice To Keep Current Coverage,” the “Limitation On New Enrollment” section of the bill clearly states:
“Except as provided in this paragraph, the individual health insurance issuer offering such coverage does not enroll any individual in such coverage if the first effective date of coverage is on or after the first day” of the year the legislation becomes law.
So we can all keep our coverage, just as promised — with, of course, exceptions: Those who currently have private individual coverage won’t be able to change it. Nor will those who leave a company to work for themselves be free to buy individual plans from private carriers.
From the beginning, opponents of the public option plan have warned that if the government gets into the business of offering subsidized health insurance coverage, the private insurance market will wither. Drawn by a public option that will be 30% to 40% cheaper than their current premiums because taxpayers will be funding it, employers will gladly scrap their private plans and go with Washington’s coverage.
The nonpartisan Lewin Group estimated in April that 120 million or more Americans could lose their group coverage at work and end up in such a program. That would leave private carriers with 50 million or fewer customers. This could cause the market to, as Lewin Vice President John Sheils put it, “fizzle out altogether.”
What wasn’t known until now is that the bill itself will kill the market for private individual coverage by not letting any new policies be written after the public option becomes law.
The legislation is also likely to finish off health savings accounts, a goal that Democrats have had for years. They want to crush that alternative because nothing gives individuals more control over their medical care, and the government less, than HSAs.
With HSAs out of the way, a key obstacle to the left’s expansion of the welfare state will be removed.
The public option won’t be an option for many, but rather a mandate for buying government care. A free people should be outraged at this advance of soft tyranny.
Washington does not have the constitutional or moral authority to outlaw private markets in which parties voluntarily participate. It shouldn’t be killing business opportunities, or limiting choices, or legislating major changes in Americans’ lives.
It took just 16 pages of reading to find this naked attempt by the political powers to increase their reach. It’s scary to think how many more breaches of liberty we’ll come across in the final 1,002.
Looks like
Posted by kurzweg on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:58 pm
They might run them up into the close. Can I switch my up 3% prediction to up 5%??? Today we have price AND volume.
Rev Shark volume chart
Posted by kurzweg on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:40 pm
Large Naz volume today: http://www.sharkinvesting.com/volume.aspx
SRS trade
Posted by kurzweg on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:08 pm
Did not do it. I was looking for an emotional jump up in the indexes and didn't get it. I think this locomotive might keep rolling all afternoon.
I will again look to buy SRS if IYR hits 32.72. That's the 50 day and has shown to offer some resistance.
Lowry's
Why be Bearish? Richard Russell
Posted by kurzweg on 15th of Jul 2009 at 01:55 pm
is one of the best services/indicators I've seen over the years. I would sub to him, but he gives enough free there's no need.
I might finally buy some SRS upon the release of the Fed minutes. I think we might get a final (for the day) emotional push up at the release, then perhaps some weakness balance of the day.
IYR content
SRS
Posted by kurzweg on 15th of Jul 2009 at 10:54 am
You guys probably know this, but if you want a peak of what's actually in the SRS (since its 2x inverse IYR), go to the Yahoo profile of IYR and click on HOLDINGS, then GET QUOTES to see what the top 10 issues are doing.
True Technicians won't care about it, but I'm a hybrid so I find it informative.
SRS / IYR
SRS
Posted by kurzweg on 15th of Jul 2009 at 10:45 am
Yes, the IYR is significantly underperforming the market today because an uptick in Tech sales and associated positives really doesn't help the Commercial Real Estate situation that much.
When making SRS decisions from the charts, I like to look at the chart of the IYR. In recent weeks, the IYR was turned away from its 20 day but today it looks like it might have clearly broken above that resistance and is headed to its 50 day (32.71). If I do anything with SRS, I'll probably wait for the IYR to hit the 50 day and anticipate a failure there, then buy SRS.
Waiting on IYR 32.71 probably equates to SRS at 18 handle. I probably won't get the chance to buy it there, but for now I want to take the conservative approach. If I miss it I miss it.
dylan, right
Running ths shorts out
Posted by kurzweg on 15th of Jul 2009 at 10:19 am
I assume that if we close at or lower than these levels we get the revised Count which takes the S&P up to the 1000-1050 level WITHOUT first going down to the 810ish level.
If I understand correctly, the Big Picture hasn't changed, its just that now we don't go down as much before going up.
agree
Running ths shorts out
Posted by kurzweg on 15th of Jul 2009 at 10:10 am
This whole situation pisses me off as much as the rest of you, but going Short here just feels like trying to impose your will on the market. It sucks, but the manipulation machine is in overdrive and looks to be working for now.
We're probably going to have some more decent Tech earnings and I think JPM will have great earnings.
just watching
One short stop hit on QID and other ones might ...
Posted by kurzweg on 15th of Jul 2009 at 09:43 am
Sure feels like the 1.5% gains of today will easily become 3% gains.
CEF be very careful
Hard Gold vs. ETF
Posted by kurzweg on 15th of Jul 2009 at 08:18 am
http://www.centralfund.com/Nav%20Form.htm CEF is "safer" than GLD because they actually have the gold in vaults but PLEASE look at the premium to asset value you are now paying, this is from their website ....11.3%. Check the Yahoo message board for background, but there have been times where when the premium gets too high they issue additional shares to close the gap and the stock drops a multiple of points- I've seen it happen real time and its not pretty.
You are basically paying $1,030 per oz for gold when its $930/ oz. That's one hell of a premium for safety.