Hey, what do people think would be the fate of the mechanical systems if this is in fact a new bull?

I know VIX drops in a rising market, and although their profitablity seems closer linked to Average True Range, would I be right in saying this also falls quite a bit in up markets? More inching up and U-shape days like the last 3?

Just don't want to give back their profits before figuring out what might possibly be on the wall already.

Any views on this?       Cheers

5% spread on UYM! wrong place

so what might be worth reflecting on now rather than after the fact, the close aside, at this point does volume and breadth look like the capitulation we were after!!?????????????

So to capitulate they want to even take down the last hedges - the GLD holders. Such a nice PPT. Same pattern as always to create reality , let the public buy in the morning then use midday quiet time to push down and create an ugly candle. Is anything really that different from this morning (SPY at same level!) and we're down 10% from then. This is how they spend bailout money - Hollywood on Wall St.

Pretty bold/machiavellian considering no-ones really buying much SPX yet, unless these gold bugs are the quickest draws in the West, which I doubt.

Wouldn't capitulation require a lot of selling before the turn? I saw some very quick bargain hunting. Hopefully this isn't another fake thing -  fake bailout, fake reversal. maybe the deeper lesson here is people will be humbled till they stop believing they are so clever they can play God, starting with the gov and then on down.

PIF/UN.TO & SIF/UN.TO worth looking at too, good doctor. (at least I hope you can trade and be a good doctor too)

no up volume

dude can't 'ardly speak!

Do we agree that Mr Elliot is not performing clearly today?

I read an article saying it was cos people are focussed on depression killing bonds (but increasing yields hopefully proportionately! - I'm new to bonds myself, and as goldbuggish as I am I'm not putting more than 20% in it, so where does the rest go?) but that they are pricing in rate cuts and NO inflation, so opportunity may be here or soon before that worm turns. Likewise it seems gold is being bought primarily on the fear factor - if it was inflation too then it would be thru the roof along with other commodities, but the bailout has to mean inflation. To me this means scale very hesitantly in on all these for the longer term. There's no way either oil or gold should be at these low levels fundamentally, depression or not IMO.

Hell just look how many 1 minute guys on this blog are starting to talk about buying bullion.

Seems to me this all shoots down the Efficient Market idea - it looks psychologically & structurally efficient but not at all fundamentally efficient.

How old is your computer? Would be good to establish if its a cpu thing or whatever. Those with fast computers no problems?

Anyone have problems with ninja freezing/crashing and taking everything down with it (bit like the US).?  Won't cntrl-alt -delete shutdown even though cpu not maxing out.

Any tricks or causes you've found? thank

I had some in U.TO thinking it, uranium, was an important commodity in that falling wedge - how low could it go? Bizarre, unfathomable, it's half what it was 2 weeks ago when it looked dirt cheap!

So that's it! Is this forced selling causing big cap gains to be paid off only quarterly? Strange though considering that I thought the whole tax advantage of passive ETFs was that they didn't actually sell anything!??? Perhaps it's different in the case of short relatives (!) Anyone know or comprehend?

Hate to say it, cos of course he can't be expected to know everything and his guidance is mostly excellent, but concerned about this I asked Matt about this awhile back and he told me stuff like paying other people's cap gains and dividends was insignificant to a short term trader looking for quick gains. Clearly not as it turns out if you're ultra short on the wrong day after a deleveraging quarter!

Doubt the 4.15 close can account for the phantom 5% SDS drop - that's why i got out yesterday. If shorts were closed then surely that would affectspy just as much!? Hopefully it's a one-off event and we can all go back to loophole shorting where appropriate?!?

So rp I got a message from IB they were going to close anything short-like today if they couldn't find the shares, but it seems for now it only related to actual shorts, not short funds, (maybe that's the loophole) though of course the components in those funds could be effected - no sign of any rally yet.

What's your take? Still long TBT? Sounds like you're continuing undeterred. I'm considering whether to close SDS now for fear they'll pull this off in one unholy chunk

What do you think?

just magic stuff

I repeat from Friday, after which it received only private comments over the weekend, given the extremity of the action by several governments of banning short-selling altogether, NOT just naked, NOT just in financials, and what is happening with SKF, do people think it is unwise to hold ANY of these pro-shares short funds, hell , what about GLD and SLV (!?)  NOT because of volatility or directionality but simply for fear of rigging or god knows what? God knows they've confiscated and 'revalued' Gold before and this stuff is already just as OTT as that..I want to stay short but these theives are as unpredictable as crack addicts!

If so are there alternatives that in their own interests they could never touch ? - there's always loopholes for the rich, albeit they get sneakier with time.

This may be worth discussing!? There are many with more experience here than me it would be good to hear from, but I've gotta say many times it seems I've brought up the obvious, to either deafening silence or touchiness, only to find it pan out as next week's issue. Whatever, but it seems like an opportunity to pool minds lost.

So, once again I humbly invite your opinions on this I think very pertinent & timely issue .

Anyone know if  are there any risky implications to owning short funds at all? - eg if they ban shorting which I read supposedly happened this morning, is there any risk the market for them drops away with unforseen consequences? I just got an IB warning on something like this. After the difficulty filling them this morning it has me concerned even though I'm inclined to stay bearish.