/GC looks like a bear flag since Friday. Contract expiry
for May silver is on Wednesday. A drop in /GC and /SI could be
playing out into the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Long eurusd, long
gold play is still on.
Supply & demand analysis for the week:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9ep0n2rap0. A note of caution
for the upside and targets for the downside on any weakness after
earnings.
rbreese, a May high then out till a harvest low in July. Then a
long-term hold. November soybeans (new crop) are becoming
attractive at these prices once soybeans stop dropping.
handyman4, El Nina and all sorts of issues with droughts in
Kansas area. I am playing a seasonal bounce into May, whatever it
may be. And bottom picking for a position trade. Based on the
cycles, wheat should recover up to $8. Corn has put wave 4 bounce,
and should be going lower. Soybeans have more room to
drop.
rbreese, Chicago wheat should be bottoming here. 658 is a stop
based on weekly chart, 667 on 4-hour on July contract. OpEx is on
April 27th, so funds typically sell off into the expiration date to
pocket the difference on the rollover. We are looking into a yearly
low here. In wave 5 or in a corrective A-B-C down after an initial
bounce.
Steve, LoL (lots of laughter)! I heard of horror stories of 1000
pounds of soybeans being delivered to a house after forgetting to
roll out a contract before its expiration in 1990s :-)
No, I am a city dweller. My parents both came from rural areas.
I have got a feel for commodities, not so much for stock indexes. I
like commodities because there are no earnings, not stock
downgrades, no bankruptcies :-) They could be physically delivered
if requested, too!
rbreese, I am happy for you! You like shorting so look into
cocoa and soybeans for good shorts. Lean hogs still looks like a
long but it may drift a bit lower into the middle of May along with
the rest of commodities, IMHO. I am long Chicago wheat which is
under water. It may have one more thrust lower before a
reversal.
Matt, does your break-out subsystem have an exit signal? Or only
a stop-out from a trailing stop? 4140 down to 4120 is a good
support on /ES, and a move lower is corrective. Wave b bounce
could be an opportunity to take partial profits.
rbreese, it could fall more so hold on to a small runner. A
pennant on 1-hour and squeeze on 4-hour and daily. Peter Schiff
said Fed would crash gold:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMD4Ocyt3z4
This year is pretty unique. A pattern is one consolidation, then
a squeeze, a trending move, and lastly a new consolidation. Wash,
rinse, and repeat! Every long consolidation is bound to be a
topping pattern in my view.
What do I know about this market that a professional trader who
trades against me, does not?
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focus175, wave 5 there would
Can the move up from March 24 - April 13 ...
Posted by junkie on 24th of Apr 2023 at 11:55 am
focus175, wave 5 there would only contain 3 waves on $spx. Please include your screenshot for clarity.
$SPX looks to me in wave B up having finished wave A on Friday. Wave C should start tomorrow or on Wednesday.
intraday
Breakout systems stops
Posted by junkie on 24th of Apr 2023 at 11:10 am
intraday
/GC looks like a bear
Posted by junkie on 24th of Apr 2023 at 09:31 am
/GC looks like a bear flag since Friday. Contract expiry for May silver is on Wednesday. A drop in /GC and /SI could be playing out into the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Long eurusd, long gold play is still on.
Supply & demand analysis for
Posted by junkie on 23rd of Apr 2023 at 06:37 pm
Supply & demand analysis for the week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9ep0n2rap0. A note of caution for the upside and targets for the downside on any weakness after earnings.
Andrew Maguire reports that $1950
Posted by junkie on 22nd of Apr 2023 at 01:48 pm
Andrew Maguire reports that $1950 is the new stair-stepped bottom for gold. Monday will be telling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vfrPo_E99Y
An educational video on the
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 08:58 pm
An educational video on the correlation between bonds, Nasdaq and commodities : the key to bond market is commodities
Professional action of high lot
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 04:39 pm
Professional action of high lot sizes near the lows today is seen on grains (1-hour) and gold (15-min) charts. It is usually seen at or near lows.
$SPX 5-min About 26 points
SPX 15
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 04:01 pm
$SPX 5-min About 26 points from a trough to a peak each day. A corrective wave A down might be over, or one more push.
stockcharts.com
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
rbreese, a May high then
Junkie where does WEAT look to bpttom ? I started ...
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 01:59 pm
rbreese, a May high then out till a harvest low in July. Then a long-term hold. November soybeans (new crop) are becoming attractive at these prices once soybeans stop dropping.
handyman4, El Nina and all
junkie are you originally a farmer with all these ...
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 12:27 pm
handyman4, El Nina and all sorts of issues with droughts in Kansas area. I am playing a seasonal bounce into May, whatever it may be. And bottom picking for a position trade. Based on the cycles, wheat should recover up to $8. Corn has put wave 4 bounce, and should be going lower. Soybeans have more room to drop.
rbreese, Chicago wheat should be
Junkie where does WEAT look to bpttom ? I started ...
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 12:21 pm
rbreese, Chicago wheat should be bottoming here. 658 is a stop based on weekly chart, 667 on 4-hour on July contract. OpEx is on April 27th, so funds typically sell off into the expiration date to pocket the difference on the rollover. We are looking into a yearly low here. In wave 5 or in a corrective A-B-C down after an initial bounce.
Steve, LoL (lots of laughter)!
junkie are you originally a farmer with all these ...
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 12:04 pm
Steve, LoL (lots of laughter)! I heard of horror stories of 1000 pounds of soybeans being delivered to a house after forgetting to roll out a contract before its expiration in 1990s :-)
No, I am a city
junkie are you originally a farmer with all these ...
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 11:22 am
No, I am a city dweller. My parents both came from rural areas. I have got a feel for commodities, not so much for stock indexes. I like commodities because there are no earnings, not stock downgrades, no bankruptcies :-) They could be physically delivered if requested, too!
rbreese, I am happy for
Junkie thanks again had lots of fun shorting GDXJ especially.
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 11:10 am
rbreese, I am happy for you! You like shorting so look into cocoa and soybeans for good shorts. Lean hogs still looks like a long but it may drift a bit lower into the middle of May along with the rest of commodities, IMHO. I am long Chicago wheat which is under water. It may have one more thrust lower before a reversal.
Matt, does your break-out subsystem
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 11:02 am
Matt, does your break-out subsystem have an exit signal? Or only a stop-out from a trailing stop? 4140 down to 4120 is a good support on /ES, and a move lower is corrective. Wave b bounce could be an opportunity to take partial profits.
already started, everything is being
Remember OPEX, should be volatile
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 10:17 am
already started, everything is being sold starting with commodities. The fruit is ripe (for picking).
rbreese, it could fall more
JUNKIE good call on GOLD and SILVER to sell off ...
Posted by junkie on 21st of Apr 2023 at 07:57 am
rbreese, it could fall more so hold on to a small runner. A pennant on 1-hour and squeeze on 4-hour and daily. Peter Schiff said Fed would crash gold: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMD4Ocyt3z4
This year is pretty unique.
My reasons for possible concern into late April stem from ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 04:48 pm
This year is pretty unique. A pattern is one consolidation, then a squeeze, a trending move, and lastly a new consolidation. Wash, rinse, and repeat! Every long consolidation is bound to be a topping pattern in my view.
What do I know about this market that a professional trader who trades against me, does not?
Steve, is taking a large
QQQ 5 minute - can count 5 waves down so ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 04:07 pm
Steve, is taking a large position to take partial profits and to leave out a runner one of the ways to navigate this market? Supply to demand zones.
Steve, I am not arguing.
QQQ 5 minute - can count 5 waves down so ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 03:58 pm
Steve, I am not arguing. QQQ is more bearish that SPY. I am thinking out loud to devise a plan for tomorrow.