Posted by douglas51 on 6th of Jun 2013 at 03:41 pm
This is the second time
this week the US dollar has been sold heavily and the second time
gold has failed to make any meaningful gains. Gold touched the
highest since May 15 today at $1423 but it has slid back to $1415
.
In non-dollar terms,
gold has declined in the past week:
In JPY terms, gold is down 3.7%
in the past week
In EUR terms it’s down
1.4%
In GBP and CHF terms it’s down
2.5%
In CAD terms it’s down
0.3%
Even against the woeful AUD,
it’s only up 0.7%
Yesterday, the US mint
talked about record demand for gold coins. Everything a gold bull
could dream about happened this week — the US dollar has dropped
and data is pointing to Fed tapering for longer. It should have
been an incredible week for gold but it wasn’t. That tells me the
market is weak.
The chart doesn’t yet look weak enough to short but that day
is coming.
Posted by douglas51 on 2nd of Jan 2013 at 11:28 am
Mr. Market parties all night and into late morning but now he
seems pretty tired.
EUR/USD and AUD/USD are taking the brunt of the profit-taking
late in the New York morning.
Makes sense, as this fiscal cliff deal is a lot less than meets
the eye. All taxes and no spending cuts (plus new spending!) ain’t
a recipe for fiscal rectitude…
Stops below 1.3230 are being tripped as we write. 1.3140/50 is
key support if the selling intensifies
How do we know? These wonky moves seen to come at the top of the
hour, a time when US real money accounts are able to deal on a
published rate.
There are fixings virtually every half-hour around the clock
these days, but the bulk of the business gets done at the Tokyo
fixing, the early London fixing at 11:00 GMT, the ECB fixing at
12:15 GMT and the late London fixing at 15:00 GMT.
But as we just saw, quite heavy EUR/AUD flows just went through
at 17:00 GMT.
What we can take away from all this is that money mangers are
getting out of euro-denominated investments in a big way. They were
sellers into strength last week and they are selling into weakness
this week. Looks like Australia is taking a good bit of the
safe-haven flow given recent price action. With rates poised to
head lower in that country, it’s a hot-money paradise for bond
traders…
BBVA, the second-largest bank in Spain, was out yesterday with a
regulatory filingto put a chill down your
spine:
The connection between EU sovereign concerns and concerns for
the health of the European financial system has intensified, and
financial tensions in Europe have reached levels, in many respects,
higher than those present after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in
October 2008.
The filing was picked up by the Spanish press yesterday but went
largely unnoticed elsewhere.
Financial tensions in Europe continue at levels higher than
after the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008. This, together with the
effect of fiscal adjustment in peripheral countries, imply a
downward revision of growth projections for Europe, which are -0.5%
for 2012, with a slow rebound in 2013. Nonetheless, it is important
to note that these projections depend on a fast resolution of the
crisis and a notable reduction of financial stress, to avoid a
sharper effect on growth.
Note that the ECB real GDP forecast for 2012 is -0.1%. There is
also this pleasant kicker:
Current economic conditions may make it more difficult for us to
continue funding our business on favorable terms or at all.
Spain is in a full-on credit crunch. It will ravage growth and
may spread to other parts of the continent. Forget Greece, watch
Spain.
Posted by douglas51 on 25th of Apr 2012 at 01:38 pm
I think that with the ES closing in on a 5th wave high
with negative divergences being sen, as well as positive
divergences in the VXX on its new lows, we are nearing a
top.
Posted by douglas51 on 23rd of Apr 2012 at 11:42 am
In
looking at the larger perspective in the VXX, it is telling a story
of a market that will be heading considerably lower. The
A=C target is the 22.75 region, while a
1.382 extension takes us to the 24.70 region. These
are the most likely targets for the VXX at this time, which would
substantiate the larger count for the market moving down to
the 1296-1320 during the rest of this week.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Thank you...very much appreciated!
BPT-MA Deluxe
Posted by douglas51 on 8th of Jul 2013 at 11:46 am
Thank you...very much appreciated!
BPT-MA Deluxe
Posted by douglas51 on 8th of Jul 2013 at 11:12 am
Did the indicator turn green last Friday?
Thanks
BPT-MA Deluxe
Posted by douglas51 on 8th of Jul 2013 at 07:43 am
Did this indicator signal a buy last Friday by turning green?
Thanks
Gold
GDX and gold comments
Posted by douglas51 on 6th of Jun 2013 at 03:41 pm
This is the second time this week the US dollar has been sold heavily and the second time gold has failed to make any meaningful gains. Gold touched the highest since May 15 today at $1423 but it has slid back to $1415 .
In non-dollar terms, gold has declined in the past week:
Yesterday, the US mint talked about record demand for gold coins. Everything a gold bull could dream about happened this week — the US dollar has dropped and data is pointing to Fed tapering for longer. It should have been an incredible week for gold but it wasn’t. That tells me the market is weak.
The chart doesn’t yet look weak enough to short but that day is coming.
tell me again what that
Commercial Net short for gold
Posted by douglas51 on 1st of Mar 2013 at 05:22 pm
tell me again what that actually means re Gold.
Is a wedge forming on crude oil?
Posted by douglas51 on 1st of Mar 2013 at 01:03 pm
Channels and Patterns website seems to thnk so.....Just would like anyone elses opinion.....Matt / Steve?
Thanks
Roll Tide....my daugher is on
Go Irish! beat 'Bama!
Posted by douglas51 on 7th of Jan 2013 at 07:26 pm
Roll Tide....my daugher is on the UA womens soccer team and at the game....
Euro pullback
Euro news?
Posted by douglas51 on 2nd of Jan 2013 at 11:28 am
Mr. Market parties all night and into late morning but now he seems pretty tired.
EUR/USD and AUD/USD are taking the brunt of the profit-taking late in the New York morning.
Makes sense, as this fiscal cliff deal is a lot less than meets the eye. All taxes and no spending cuts (plus new spending!) ain’t a recipe for fiscal rectitude…
Stops below 1.3230 are being tripped as we write. 1.3140/50 is key support if the selling intensifies
Investors fleeing Euro
Posted by douglas51 on 18th of Jun 2012 at 01:54 pm
Investors fleeing the euro in droves
How do we know? These wonky moves seen to come at the top of the hour, a time when US real money accounts are able to deal on a published rate.
There are fixings virtually every half-hour around the clock these days, but the bulk of the business gets done at the Tokyo fixing, the early London fixing at 11:00 GMT, the ECB fixing at 12:15 GMT and the late London fixing at 15:00 GMT.
But as we just saw, quite heavy EUR/AUD flows just went through at 17:00 GMT.
What we can take away from all this is that money mangers are getting out of euro-denominated investments in a big way. They were sellers into strength last week and they are selling into weakness this week. Looks like Australia is taking a good bit of the safe-haven flow given recent price action. With rates poised to head lower in that country, it’s a hot-money paradise for bond traders…
is that bullish or bearish?
5 min SPX
Posted by douglas51 on 22nd of May 2012 at 02:34 pm
is that bullish or bearish?
FB problems
Posted by douglas51 on 18th of May 2012 at 11:38 am
The official word is that there a problems with traders canceling and amending orders…Looks like this thing is a bust…Sweet irony…
Thank you from Mark
Posted by douglas51 on 18th of May 2012 at 09:56 am
A Letter from Mark Zuckerberg
About Facebook’s IPO
Dear Potential Investor:
For years, you’ve wasted your time on Facebook. Now here’s your chance to waste your money on it, too.
Tomorrow is Facebook’s IPO, and I know what some of you are thinking. How will Facebook be any different from the dot-com bubble of the early 2000’s?
For one thing, those bad dot-com stocks were all speculation and hype, and weren’t based on real businesses. Facebook, on the other hand, is based on a solid foundation of angry birds and imaginary sheep.
Second, Facebook is the most successful social network in the world, enabling millions to share information of no interest with people they barely know.
Third, every time someone clicks on a Facebook ad, Facebook makes money. And while no one has ever done this on purpose, millions have done it by mistake while drunk. We totally stole this idea from iTunes.
Finally, if you invest in Facebook, you’ll be far from alone. As a result of using Facebook for the past few years, over 900 million people in the world have suffered mild to moderate brain damage, impairing their ability to make reasoned judgments. These will be your fellow Facebook investors.
With your help, if all goes as planned tomorrow (i.e. this morning) , Facebook’s IPO will net $100 billion (actually $104 billion). To put that number in context, it would take JP Morgan four or five trades to lose that much money.
One last thing: what will, I, Mark Zuckerberg, do with the $18 billion I’m expected to earn from Facebook’s IPO? Well, I’m considering buying Greece, but that would still leave me with $18 billion. LOL.
Friend me,
Mark
Bad omen for France
Posted by douglas51 on 15th of May 2012 at 12:24 pm
Hollande’s plane returns to France after being hit by lightning
Not a good omen…On the way to Berlin for his first summit, Hollande’s plane gets struck by lightning.
Greek Bonds Plunging
Posted by douglas51 on 15th of May 2012 at 11:12 am
New Greek bonds plunging
Bondholders took 31.5 cents on the dollar in the PSI and it’s been straight downhill from there.
The new 10s are yielding 28% today, up 2 full percentage points.
Separately, Italian 5-year CDS just rose above 500 for the first time since January — up 18 bps today.
Spanish bank...real problems!
Posted by douglas51 on 15th of May 2012 at 09:55 am
BBVA: Is the situation as bad as when Lehman collapsed? No, it’s worse
BBVA, the second-largest bank in Spain, was out yesterday with a regulatory filingto put a chill down your spine:
The filing was picked up by the Spanish press yesterday but went largely unnoticed elsewhere.
Note that the ECB real GDP forecast for 2012 is -0.1%. There is also this pleasant kicker:
Spain is in a full-on credit crunch. It will ravage growth and may spread to other parts of the continent. Forget Greece, watch Spain.
same thing for me also.
I only got 18min of sound with the newsletter. It ...
Posted by douglas51 on 26th of Apr 2012 at 08:52 pm
same thing for me also.
near the top?
Posted by douglas51 on 25th of Apr 2012 at 01:38 pm
I think that with the ES closing in on a 5th wave high with negative divergences being sen, as well as positive divergences in the VXX on its new lows, we are nearing a top.
Am I wrong?
vxx
Posted by douglas51 on 23rd of Apr 2012 at 11:42 am
In looking at the larger perspective in the VXX, it is telling a story of a market that will be heading considerably lower. The A=C target is the 22.75 region, while a 1.382 extension takes us to the 24.70 region. These are the most likely targets for the VXX at this time, which would substantiate the larger count for the market moving down to the 1296-1320 during the rest of this week.
How effective are the weekly
intra day SPX Renko charts
Posted by douglas51 on 16th of Apr 2012 at 12:13 pm
How effective are the weekly and monthly Renko charts for catching the big trends in commodities and the stock markets using ETF's?
Is that positive or negative?
AAPl 15 min
Posted by douglas51 on 9th of Apr 2012 at 04:23 pm
Is that positive or negative?