I have had a good look but can,t find the AEM triggered trade. It was interesting to see it come up because this is one of a number of miners that I trade all the time.

Three positions at 0.37, 0.50, 0.53 and currently down overall, but some decent profits on GBN over the past year.

Yes, it could break to the downside but I suspect only if the general market takes a dive, in which case after the dust has settled I should be looking to buy more. It does look as though a number of miners are agitating towards the upside just now. Eventually the price level of the precious metals will show up in the miners and I hold a number medium term, in addition to trading short term.

     The daily chart looks ready to explode. Having fallen about 40% fom the December high with consistently declining volume, the Bollingers are now extremely tight and ADX at a low. ROC30 has moved up nicely. There has been a fair amount of director buying in recent months, the latest being 4 on 15th April.

The four hour charts show a neat inverse H & S on the MACD histogram.

The article by Troy Schwensen on 321gold.com, dated 1st October, included an excellent chart on the Gold COTS, demonstrating that in recent years a high level of shorts tend to accompany upside breakouts in price. Looking at the chart I noticed that in 2003, 2005, and 2007/8 the net shorts show lower highs prior to the gold price peaking out. This also occurs in the steep run up to the breakout in 2006/7. The only case where this useful warning fails is in 2004.

Matt, in your last report you did not comment on the TRIX on the VIX chart, but I noticed that the parameters were 11.9, not the 15.9 Stockcharts default. Is that to obtain an early hint of any weakness in the current uptrend?

The Coppock is unlikely to tell us anything for a while. It would be interesting to apply it to the 1930's. I have used the Investors Chronicle (UK) version for many years. From memory it gave a leading signal to the 1987 market fall, by a couple of days. The false signal in late 2001 was irritating. On my version (Sharescope) the present decline crossed to the negative last May and went straight down to -23 in five months. Then it dived at a steeper angle which has not improved in four months and now registers -53. No sign of any bull market there.

Last week I noted the potential inverse Head and Shoulders pattern in silver, which began Aug.15th. Todays move looks to be completing the right shoulder.

Both moving into the apex of three day triangles. 60min chart.

The recent lows have formed a potential inverse Head & Shoulders, with the first shoulder starting 15th August. The 60 minute chart of what may turn out to be the head shows an amazingly symmetrical pattern.

The Gold:Silver ratio, having reached a high of around 75 is now coming down, 67 today, and again this pattern is very regular with the same angle of slope either side of the peak.

Over 70 today

Inverse H & S