Why Sudden Sell Off??

SPY SPX Quick Whipsaw out of nowhere!

AMZN_GOOGL_NFLX left behind - anyone have idea why?  Considering they are 15% of S&P

SPY Trend or Resistance Tough Call

Normally, I would sell SPY into this obvious resistance, but as Matt pointed out, gaps up usually have follow through.  humm... guess I will wait.

Lots of SPY Fake-Outs This Afternoon :)

SPY_5min_and_1min_Classic_Head_And_Shoulders_with_Head_at_Double_Top Peaked at yesterday's high  

As Matt and Steve would say... come on guys, this is easy obvious stuff : )

SPY_5min_and_1min_Classic_Head_And_Shoulders_with_Head_at_Double_Top

Peaked at yesterday's high      at Bearish Neckline Now    and it broke below the uptrend channel.     now trending sideways at neckline 2835 (283.5) to decide

UPDATE: BROKE NECKLINE DOWN

AFTER-MARKET-HUMOR__GDP_has_been_replaced_by_loans_and_stimulus

Stimulus Package, Accounting, and Texas Humor

It is a slow day in the small Texas town of Mustang, and streets are deserted.  With the Coronavirus, Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody is living on credit.   A tourist visiting the area (wearing a mask) drives through town stops at the motel and lays a $100 bill (stimulus loan) on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs so as to pick one for the night.  As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the $100 bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher, and puts another steak on his bill.  The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his debt to the pig farmer, and orders another leg of lamb on his account.  The pig farmer takes the $100 and heads off to pay his bill with his supplier, the Co-op, and gets another bail of hay on his account.  The guy at the Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her “services” on credit, and gets another quickie on account.  The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the hotel owner, and makes a reservation for Friday.  The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the traveler will not suspect anything.   At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, picks up the $100 bill (stimulus loan repaid) and leaves.  No one produced anything.   No one earned anything.   However, the whole town is now out of debt, paid $7 each in sales tax to County, $20 each in income tax feds, and looks to the future with a lot more optimism.   And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how a stimulus package works.

 (the beauty of M2 and they money supply multiplier)

Elevator Down has arrived I believe

This SPY channel is driving me crazy.  It is just begging to go lower, but just will not GO!

Yes, but part of this is a bit of "herd effect", so if EVERYONE else is only charting the cash day markets, then I definitely only want to do the same!!  So, I am hearing that 80-90% of technical trading is done on Day Cash Market Charts (big fund traders, quants, brokerage houses....)  TRUE?? If so, I want that to me my style too : )   Thanks.

Extended Hours Do Not Count?  Why?   If you include After Hours and Extended Hours, you often come to conclusions at different price levels.  Why not include them?  They seem like valid prices and transactions?  Does everyone ignore them in Technical Analysis, or is that just a BreakPointTrade, Matt, Steve thing?  (maybe a rookie question :)  Need education tip on Why?  thanks.

Example: TD Ameritrade think or Swim shows Monday Low of SPY at 277.63, but normal hours at about 279.13

SPY great easy short trade, thanks!! for confirming my same narrow channel...energy was building

Watching the Market feels like this hilarious Pandemic Horse Race Video

Make sure you put on the sound.     Pandemic Economic Horse Race (Twitter video)

Cash Bills will be shunned for a while.  I was reading that some retailers, as a precaution, are not going to take cash bills!.   plus for FinTech   V, MA, PYPL, SQ.... maybe Bitcoin GBTC

MRAM Coiling for a break either way

SH_or_SPYshort_which is better for 3-6 months?

Aside from trading, I am considering now placing a hedge against my long term long holdings.  Would you do SH (S&P short) or SPY Short?

SH pays a quarterly dividend of 1.39%, but does it decay deteriorate (nightly or weekly) due to lost time value of futures and options underneath?  KEY QUESTION HERE.

SPY short would mean I would have to payout the 2.06% dividend quarterly.   Hence, I am leaning SH.  Thoughts?  Decay deteriorates?

SH Question #2 - do they just short SPY for you?  or is it comprised of complex derivatives, futures, and options?  How do they pay you 1.39%?  (where does that revenue come to them?)

(side question - how do you post a spreadsheet?  Seems to only like links or JPG)

Wow $1.20 to $4.50......Yikes, that was $30-50 last year

Wow_those_shippingtankers_are_volatile   Up and down 12-14% daily!!

Performance Comparison of SH and SPY Short

Spreadsheet attached.  Please comment on the Dividend Paid Out vs Dividend Paid In issue.  Do I have it right?  Need to Count Dividends somehow?

Conclusion:  for a week or two, no big deal, but Using Short SPY is Almost Always Better (without considering Dividend, I believe)
Conclusion:  Using Short SPY is Almost Always Better (without considering Dividend, I believe)
Conclusion:  In the 90 or 180 day period Using Short SPY is DRAMATICALLY  Better (without considering Dividend, I believe)
Conclusion:  In EXTREME VOLATILITY Using Short SPY is DRAMATICALLY  Better (without considering Dividend, I believe)
Is this due to   SH Paying a 1.6% Dividend and SPY Short Payout 2.06 Dividend?    3.6% per Quarter x 2 = 7.2, x 3 Qtrs 10.8%
Dividends Paid End of Quarter 3/6/9/12
Data Source: Yahoo Finance