The market makes 3x the progress from Nov. to May than it does from  May to November.  Most manager's fiscal year ends 10/31 or 11/30, that way, they can  receive  bonuses in December. If you are a manager in late August and are up 30%, you are taking risk off the table to preserve your upcoming bonus.  If you are down 30%, you are fighting the most important risk of all, "career risk".  If you still have a job in November, you can now breathe a sigh of relief and look out " long term" (about 6 months).  Better decisions are being made and there usually a bullish bias.  Moral of the story, Don't fight career risk.

Thanks Vida,

Always good to hear about "real world" Europe.

I remember back in the late 80s, I was watching Wall Street Week.  Lou Rukyser (sp?) finished his show with some advise for parents with children who were in college and had no particular skill set.  " Have them become economic pessimists, he said,  "If they are right, they are gurus, if they are wrong, nobody cares because the majority is making money in the market". 

McClellen went short term bullish on stocks today. He still thinks the bottom is Oct 12-13.

I'm always reminded when I read the varying opinions of a line from a Dire Straits song "two men think they're Jesus, one of them must be wrong". 

When we had our banking crisis in 2008, the five major banks levered at 30 to 1 all are gone or do not exist today as they were.  At that time they said Deutsche Bank and Bank of England were levered at 40 and 50 to 1.    

Mother Nature will have the new CitiBank CEO fired in two weeks.  You heard it here first!

Ralph

Felt it in Pinehurst, NC.  Office on 2nd floor, thought my swival chair was loose

About coders?  Have you found any you trust and recommend? What about cost?

Ralph

How 'bout a little down here setting up an inverse head & shoulders?

Often wrong but never in doubt,

Ralph

I am not ruling out a small rally.  Then again, I'm old and crazy.

Thanks Robert,

It is always good to hear the opinion of people closer to the situation.  It seems to me that this market has been preparing for this and the end of QE2 since February.  Any other information you can supply is appreciated.

Ralph

It is easy to look back at a chart low and say "that's where I should have taken the trade".  Learn and get comfortable with your  time frames.  One size does not fit all.

Ralph

Love Barry's indicators and use them myself.  We had an End of Trend on the 65 min.

Ralph

I thought for sure you would name her MACD!

Ralph

I'm having a hard time getting past the outperformance of the defensive sectors since mid Feb.  Dollar trade stocks are getting hit. 

Who knows?

Ralph

She will want one when she is 16.

Good Luck.

Ralph

It's a little scary when defensive stocks outperform.  Long only fund managers are buying something that has less potential for loss.

Ralph

Your funds are settled overnight Wed - Thurs and are clear on Thurs.

Ralph